Top 5 Story Lines of this NBA Season

With the NBA season right around the corner, there is definitely something to be said about every single team in the league, but I've managed to narrow it down to the top 5 in my mind. Here are the most intriguing story lines of this NBA season.

#5: Boston's Aging Big 3

Has the window officially shut? Rajon Rondo is obviously offended and disgruntled that he was dangled in front of New Orleans during the Chris Paul saga. He's the glue to that team. It has to play a role in the way that team comes together this season. With a veteran lineup and leadership, I imagine they will be professionals and continue moving forward with the offseason as a distant memory. It's also going to be interesting to see how Doc Rivers manages all of the minutes for this team. KG also has a massive salary this year, and the Boston faithful will be hoping he can live up to it.

#4: The Entire Western Conference

The West is as wide open as it has been in a long time. There are a

few teams that can compete for a Finals spot this year. The Lakers, Clippers, Thunder, Spurs, and Mavs are contenders for a spot, but the gap between those teams is not as wide as it has been. The Lakers and Mavs both downgraded this offseason, the Clippers upgraded, the Spurs are almost unchanged, and the Thunder have another year of experience under their belt. The offseason in the Western Conference (Chris Paul) is a forecast for the season.

#3: Dwight Howard

The Nets, Lakers, and Mavs are on

Howard's short list. The Nets seem to have been taken out of the running for Howard as of now because Lopez went down today. Without a third team in the mix, don't expect any of these teams to be able to make a deal straight up. We'll hear it every single time he steps on the court in front of a national audience. I feel for the Orlando fans and organization because until something definitive happens, Howard's future will overshadow anything that happens with the Magic.

#2: Moves the Lakers will make

All the Laker faithful are still shell-shocked from the "Stern-Gate" episode we just experienced. They are stuck looking across the hallway at the Clippers, and their prized target is standing in Red and White. The Lakers gave up Lamar Odom for essentially nothing, and replaced him with a Troy Murphy who hasn't been relevant since his last season as a Pacer in 2009-2010. They signed a fringe NBA player in Josh McRoberts and they have 2nd round draft picks that would have already made plans with their agent to go to Europe when the NBA season started any season prior to this one. They passed on signing Baron Davis and Chauncey Billups to upgrade the point guard spot, and a Dwight Howard trade looks far-fetched at this point. A major trade

involving the Lakers would shake things up significantly. Lakers fans are cross-armed and tapping their feet looking at Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss.

#1: The Heat's Championship Run

The Heat are the clear favorite to win the 2012 championship. They have a steady veteran leader with Shane Battier who will give them an incredible defensive presence and outside threat. They still have the same needs at the Center and Point Guard spot, but that doesn't seem to be a concern for anyone at this point. The house fell down on Lebron in the Finals last year, and the whole world watched. The pressure on Miami's Big 3 will be incredible this year, with the spotlight being brightest on #6. If they come up short this year, the criticism will be harsher than he's ever felt in his life. It's a task that Lebron signed up for when he made 'The Decision', and it's one that he will have to complete before his legacy as one of the Game's Greatest is solidified. There is no question that it's their year to lose at this point.

It's great to pick up right where we left off last season. Enjoy it.

Izzy

Top 5 Story Lines of this NBA Season

With the NBA season right around the corner, there is definitely something to be said about every single team in the league, but I've managed to narrow it down to the top 5 in my mind. Here are the most intriguing story lines of this NBA season.

#5: Boston's Aging Big 3

Has the window officially shut? Rajon Rondo is obviously offended and disgruntled that he was dangled in front of New Orleans during the Chris Paul saga. He's the glue to that team. It has to play a role in the way that team comes together this season. With a veteran lineup and leadership, I imagine they will be professionals and continue moving forward with the offseason as a distant memory. It's also going to be interesting to see how Doc Rivers manages all of the minutes for this team. KG also has a massive salary this year, and the Boston faithful will be hoping he can live up to it.

#4: The Entire Western Conference

The West is as wide open as it has been in a long time. There are a

few teams that can compete for a Finals spot this year. The Lakers, Clippers, Thunder, Spurs, and Mavs are contenders for a spot, but the gap between those teams is not as wide as it has been. The Lakers and Mavs both downgraded this offseason, the Clippers upgraded, the Spurs are almost unchanged, and the Thunder have another year of experience under their belt. The offseason in the Western Conference (Chris Paul) is a forecast for the season.

#3: Dwight Howard

The Nets, Lakers, and Mavs are on

Howard's short list. The Nets seem to have been taken out of the running for Howard as of now because Lopez went down today. Without a third team in the mix, don't expect any of these teams to be able to make a deal straight up. We'll hear it every single time he steps on the court in front of a national audience. I feel for the Orlando fans and organization because until something definitive happens, Howard's future will overshadow anything that happens with the Magic.

#2: Moves the Lakers will make

All the Laker faithful are still shell-shocked from the "Stern-Gate" episode we just experienced. They are stuck looking across the hallway at the Clippers, and their prized target is standing in Red and White. The Lakers gave up Lamar Odom for essentially nothing, and replaced him with a Troy Murphy who hasn't been relevant since his last season as a Pacer in 2009-2010. They signed a fringe NBA player in Josh McRoberts and they have 2nd round draft picks that would have already made plans with their agent to go to Europe when the NBA season started any season prior to this one. They passed on signing Baron Davis and Chauncey Billups to upgrade the point guard spot, and a Dwight Howard trade looks far-fetched at this point. A major trade

involving the Lakers would shake things up significantly. Lakers fans are cross-armed and tapping their feet looking at Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss.

#1: The Heat's Championship Run

The Heat are the clear favorite to win the 2012 championship. They have a steady veteran leader with Shane Battier who will give them an incredible defensive presence and outside threat. They still have the same needs at the Center and Point Guard spot, but that doesn't seem to be a concern for anyone at this point. The house fell down on Lebron in the Finals last year, and the whole world watched. The pressure on Miami's Big 3 will be incredible this year, with the spotlight being brightest on #6. If they come up short this year, the criticism will be harsher than he's ever felt in his life. It's a task that Lebron signed up for when he made 'The Decision', and it's one that he will have to complete before his legacy as one of the Game's Greatest is solidified. There is no question that it's their year to lose at this point.

It's great to pick up right where we left off last season. Enjoy it.

Izzy

Chris Paul to the Clippers Analysis

The saga is finally over, and Chris Paul is actually moving to LA this time, except he'll be in a Clippers uniform. Here are my quick thoughts on the trade.

Any time you can add a superstar alongside one of the most exciting/promising young players in the league, you've done a good thing. They gave up some good assets, but I think that the Clippers made a step forward in this trade overall. Chris Paul's impact is understood by everyone, but together with the recent Billups and Caron Butler signing, they look dangerous. DeAndre Jordan has a bright future in the league, and he was obviously overpaid (different story for a different post), but the Clippers spent big because they probably anticipated that they were going to trade Kaman. This is a playoff team without a doubt. Championship caliber? Not yet. They are one player away.

One move that I really think was talked about extensively was about giving Eric Gordon up in the trade. I've never really been completely sold on Gordon dating back to his days in Indiana. He's a great scorer, no doubt about that, but he's a very one-dimensional player. A shoot-first guy that hasn't reached his potential in the passing game. Playing alongsi

de Jarrett Jack, another natural scorer may not be an ideal fit.

Ironically, Al-Farouq Aminu was part of this deal as well. Aminu was a guy that Chris Paul mentored and spent a lot of time with on his trips back to Wake to train with the team while Aminu was at the school. I think Aminu has a tremendous potential to be a top flight rebounder in the league, but he's not going to be a premier scorer. There is probably more hype around him than real substance to his game. I'm sure it is PR for New Orleans fans. Either way, there will be an increase in his stats from his rookie year (5.6ppg and 3.3rebs) due to his increased playing time.

The Chris Kaman and unprotected 1st round Minnesota pick were great moves. Kaman is a good "bandaid Center" while the team looks to rebuild. The former All-Star has battled injuries his entire career, but that isn't much of an issue. Considering there are only 66 games, and he has averaged about 50 games over the course of his career, I think the Hornets can get their worth. The real value of Kaman will be when his massive $11 million salary comes off their books at the end of the year. That will give the Hornets added cap room to make legitimate signings. Couple that with one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, and you've got yourself a solid starting point. Imagine if that Minnesota pick turns out to be a #1 pick?

Chris Paul will be revitalized with this trade. It's going to be an incredible combo to see Griffin and Paul play off each other. Management has a pretty big window to grab another star to pair with both players in their prime. Lakers fans have always laughed and brushed the Clippers off, but as soon as the trade was announced, everyone stopped laughing as if the principal had just walked in. Suddenly, not just Lakers fans, but the entire league is taking this team seriously. We'll see them nightly on SportsCenter, and we'll move definitely see them beyond 66 games this year.

Izzy

NBA Chaos and Chris Paul Trade Veto Reactions

I've contemplated bringing back the blog for a while now. The recent NBA developments have shown me that I have too many opinions to vent to too many different people, that it's easier to put it all on this forum. With that said, DishingDimes is back!

Has there ever been a situation like this in pro sports? Has there ever been a situation like thisat your work? School organization? Fantasy League? The answer is probably 'No'. This doesn't happen in legitimate organizations.

I'm going to quickly try and dissect 3 interesting issues that are in this Chris Paul situation.

1) Dan Gilbert leading a group of owners to lobby David Stern to veto the trade.

This has ruined David Stern's legacy. He let a group of owners tell him what to do, and when to do it. What trade can go through now? We've found out that the league can veto any trade they don't feel "makes basketball sense"? They lost their purpose and role in the league when they stepped in to buy the Hornets, and now they've showed why. From what we understand, the owners were upset that the Lakers were saving upwards of $57 million in cap space. Really? Is that what this comes down to? We just got out of a lockout where we touched up the system to discourage big spending (this should have been called the LA/Miami/NY/Dallas Clause), and the Lakers try to get their books in order only to be smashed by the league. This was a win-win for all parties involved, and a deal that would have spared the Hornets a Melo-Nuggets fate. What kind of partnership would ever crush their associates for saving money? The example I've been using with everyone I've talked to is if you bought a company-owned car, and your colleagues looked at you and said, "No, don't think you can do that. You're getting way too great of a deal!" That type of thing doesn't happen, and if it did, you'd probably be pretty close to having an Office Freakout.

Bottom line: The only way this gets resolved and the NBA can salvage any sense of reputation is to reverse this trade. If Dwight gets traded to the Nets later today, I think everyone will be raising an eyebrow.

2) The reality that players and teams involved will have to go through an incredibly awkward period.

This will undoubtedly effect play in an overwhelmingly negative way. Lamar's already tweeted that he doesn't feel comfortable coming to training camp. An unhappy team behind closed doors already looks out of sync on the court. I can't imagine what a publicly unhappy team will look like on a court. Did we already forget when the Hornets traded Chandler to the Thunder only to to be turned down by the OKC training staff, and sent back to the Hornets? Don't think anyone was comfortable with that.

This also sets an awful precedent for future players like Chris Paul. He went through this whole process with incredible class and respect to the Hornets and the city of New Orleans. If he dragged his team and city through the mud, would the outcome have been the same?

What about Dell Demps? Everyone thought he was at the helm of the Hornets, and he just got smacked in the face by the league. Undermining someone's position of power is one of the most embarrassing things that can happen to someone, and it just happened very publicly. Not sure how he recovers from this without resigning and going elsewhere.

3) Still holding out hope that the league will respond appropriately.

I still have one ounce of hope that the league will come to their senses, and reverse their decisions before we go down a treacherous road. It doesn't even need to come with any explanation. The general consensus among basketball fans seems to be outrage that an administration would intervene to stop movement. It undermines business to an incredible extent, and with all of the backlash, I think the league might take a step back and change their stance. If you're an NBA fan, it's understandable that you take this as a slap in the face. Lets just hope that they'll give us some ice to heal from the wounds.

Good to be back,

Izzy

Grading the Recent Moves

There are a few recent moves that have caught my eye. The Heat are trying to put players around their dream trio, the Bucks are quietly making moves, the Rockets added some "Yao Insurance", and the Warriors made a move for David Lee. Lets grade these recent moves and do some quick analysis on the impact it is going to have on the teams.

Zydrunas Ilguaskas to Heat: That will complete the Heat starting 5. I'm still not sold that Z is good enough to be an impact player. He will provide a great inside presence, and having Bosh alongside him at PF will be a formidable lineup. Z is one of the best shot blockers in the league, but his offensive production has fallen off. He averaged only 7.4ppg and 5.4 rebs last season. Down from his career averages of 17.8ppg and 7.7 rebs. Just like every other player on the Heat not named Bosh, Wade, or Lebron, the pressure will not be on Z to score. He will be asked to provide defensive presence and to rebound the ball. Any way you look at it, it will be tough for teams to deal with this front-line.Zydrunas Ilgauskas to Heat: Following your superstar is never a bad idea. Big Z was fiercely loyal to Cleveland, but just like everyone else, he realized thatCleveland is in big trouble. He is the big man that the Heat needed. His presence is going to be huge for the Heat. It will be an uphill battle for Z to keep up with the Big 3 up and down the court, but in half court sets, he will fit right in.

Grade: A (if Z can be efficient on offense)

Mike Miller to the Heat: I wrote in my post about the Lebron move that Mike Miller was a definite target. He got some run with the USA team before the Beijing Olympics in 2008. Miller is a solid shooter who has struggled with consistency the last few seasons in the bottom cellar of the NBA. Miller is clearly a player who needs to be motivated. We saw his averages drop significantly in 08-09 with the T'wolves. Miller's career averages were 13.7ppg, but went down to 10.9 ppg last season with the Wolves and Wizards. He shot 48% from 3-pt range last season which is 8% higher than his career average, and he also improved his rebounding from 5.1 to 6.2 per game. This shows that he is capable of improving his produ

ctivity when he makes a commitment to it. Stats aside, Miller is a huge asset for the Heat. He will be the beneficiary countless double teams and drive and dish penetration from the Big 3. Miller's defensive capacity leaves a lot to be desired, but if he gets beat, he will have a lot of help. His job in Miami will be simple: make shots to keep the defense honest. Overall, a great pickup for the Heat. Miller probably took a bit of a paycut to be the Heat, but after conversations with the Lakers, it was clear that Miller wanted to have a chance to win.

Grade: A-

Drew Gooden to the Bucks: This is a good move for the Bucks. They get another big man who can defend the low post to team up alongside Andrew Bogut (assuming he is fully healed). I don't want to delve too deep into stats with Gooden because his presence is more what he brings to the Bucks. He is going to be a defensive presence to block the lane as much as possible. If he can grab 10 rebounds per game and block 1.5 shots per game, the Bucks will have gotten their value from him.

Grade: B

Corey Maggette to the Bucks: Solid move for the Bucks also. An athletic player who gets to the free throw line. He is a pure scorer and will be a great complement to Brandon Jennings' own

athleticism and ability to get to the basket. It

gives the Bucks a great threat to use Delfino or Maggette at SF. One of those players could move to SG also. It is an incredible move for the Bucks to upgrade their lineup. Their starting lineup now has an incredible combination of threats. If Michael Redd comes back healthy for the start of the season, they will have even more depth. The starting lineup depth could be Brandon Jennings, John Salmons/Michael Redd, Carlos Delfino/Corey Maggette, Ersan Ilyasova/Drew Gooden (If Larry Sanders can develop he will also have a spot too), and Andrew Bogut. Not bad. Maggette adds another level of offense for them. A solid player who puts up points quickly. I'd like to see more commitment by Maggette on defense. He had one of the best seasons of his career last year in terms of ppg and FG%, and if he can play solid defense, he's going to be a threat. Playing under Scott Skiles will mean that defense is a requirement, not an option.

Grade: B+

Brad Miller to Rockets: Horrible move for the Rockets. They are worried about Yao's injury, but they get a guy who is just as injury prone. Miller is clearly on the decline in his career. He does stretch the floor with his ability to shoot from long range, but I'm not convinced that he can be an impact player anymore. They gave him MLE type money, but he hasn't proven that he can be a game changer. The main concern here seems to be that Brad Miller will slow down their transition game. Aaron Brooks is an extremely promising young player who is one of the fastest guards in the league. Brooks pushes the ball hard, and it helps speed the game up for the Rockets. This was the best offense for the Rockets when Yao was not in the lineup. Throwing Brad Miller into the mix won't give the Rockets the opportunity to get in transition as fast. Kevin Martin and Aaron Brooks will be running the show in the backcourt for the Rockets and they are almost sure to benefit from having a big man in the post, but will also be hindered by it. Rick Adelman knows what Brad Miller can do, but I'm afraid that his ability from the Sacramento days has waned.

Grade: C-

David Lee to Warriors: Moving in the right direction for the Warriors. A young dynamic player like Stephen Curry paired with a double-double machine is going to go well for the Warriors. Lee proved that he can't be the #1 option on a team in New York. It will be up to the Warriors to get another impact player to put alongside Curry and Lee before anyone starts talking playoffs for this team. They Warriors gave up a lot of their young core, but none of those players were irreplaceable. Ekpe Udoh is going to be a work in progress for this season, and won't be a credible threat until he can prove that he can hold his own down in the post. For now, it will be just David Lee. With some of the recent moves Golden State has made, this has to rank up with one of the best in a while. A big bounce back from draft night.

Grade: B- (overall performance in the offseason thus far)

-Izzy

Lebron to Miami: Quick Thoughts and Reactions

The wait is finally over. Lebron is going to become a part of the Miami Heat. I wrote yesterday about the different scenarios for the Heat. As of now, there are a few reactions I have to this news.

The first, I feel awful for the fans in Cleveland. I have a few friends from Cleveland and I know that this is heart-wrenching for them. This has to be one of the most devastating blows, if not THE most devastating blow in Cleveland sports history. I feel for them.

Second, Pat Riley and the rest of the front office can celebrate, but not for long. The key to a championship lies beyond Bosh, Wade, and Lebron, it lies in the role players around the team. They do NOT have a mid-level exception (different than what I wrote yesterday). Riley will have to fill 9 roster spots with veteran-minimum exceptions, and their 3 rookies. Check out my analysis on my post from yesterday's "With Lebron" scenario for further breakdown.

Lastly, chemistry between the 3 players is going to be the most fascinating aspect of the season. 3 superstars only have 1 basketball to go around. It will definitely be an interesting transition with the 3. Lebron is going to have to give up a lot of offense which will be tough because he has been the go-to guy his entire career. Wade and Bosh will benefit from Lebron's presence. Bosh will most likely see more isolations in the post. Wade will be able to roam free and do what he does best, create shots. I think that life will be much easier for both Bosh and Wade, and getting to the basket will come easy. I wouldn't be surprised if Lebron's ppg went down drastically and apg went up drastically. As of now, based on pure talent, they are good enough to make it to the Finals. Can they put it together to beat the defending champion Lakers? That is the real test. May not happen this year, but it will almost certainly happen in the next few years.

Couldn't be a better offseason for the NBA this season.

Wade and Bosh to Miami: Where the Heat should go from here

Two-thirds of the top 3 free agents in the biggest free agency class in history have agreed to play in Miami. Bosh and Wade will be on South Beach with Lebron's future still in doubt, but with the growing sense that The King will resign with Cleveland. Lets take a look at what the Heat should do from here under a "With Lebron" scenario and a "Without Lebron" scenario. Since the actual salary cap won't be announced until later tonight, we'll just assume that the cap will be set at around $54.4 million. We'll also assume that Wade and Bosh are making the maximum although they've said they would take less money. This will let us examine the money scenario from the worst-case for Miami.

With Lebron: The Heat will have to do some tinkering to get Lebron to Miami, but there are a few teams who would probably be willing to take on Beasley. Those teams would most likely be the Timberwolves, Kings, or Clippers. They would also probably ask for one of Miami's future draft picks which would be a small price to pay for Lebron coming into town. So lets assume that Beasley is out of the picture and traded away. This leaves Lebron signing with the Heat at the max $16.5 million. So, we have Wade, Bosh, Lebron, and Chalmers under contract for the Heat. If the cap is around $54.4 million then the heat have about $485,000 left over to build the rest of the team. They have 3 2nd round picks in Dexter Pittman, Jarvis Varnardo, and Da'Sean Butler. They can sign all of these players for the rookie minimum which would be closer to $450,000 per player.
In addition, they would have to spend their veteran minimum on any veteran looking to contend for a title. A guy like Juwan Howard would make sense or, wait for it...Shaq. I know, the Shaq thing didn't work with King James last year, but bringing Shaq off the bench would be a good way to change the pace for Miami. Shaq is also a very capable defender in the sense that he is a body that makes it imposing for any player to drive the lane or for a bigger body like Dwight Howard. The Heat could also go after Randy Foye in a backup role at PG although he is a true SG. Foye only averaged 1.3 turnovers in the 24 minutes he averaged last season with the Wizards. What about Allen Iverson? Veteran minimum for a guy who can score and play a multitude of different roles. Shaq and Iverson, on top of Bosh and Wade, how many tickets would that sell? Wow. I also hear that Quentin Richardson will probably resign and the Heat will retain Joel Anthony as well. If that happens, they will have filled significant holes with a very respectable roster that will compete for many years to come.
So, lets recap who the Heat could have in the "With Lebron" scenario:
Starters: Chalmers, Wade, James, Bosh, and Brad Miller
Bench: Juwan Howard (or Shaq), Dexter Pittman, Jarvis Varnado, Da'Sean Butler, Randy Foye, Quentin Richardson, and Joel Anthony
This roster gives them an amazing core. With Lebron, Wade, and Bosh, the Heat will have solid role players who can give them decent minutes with some decent contribution. Lets be honest, at the end of the day, if you have Lebron, Wade, and Bosh there isnt much else you need. This is a championship contending team. No question.

Without Lebron: As the roster stands now, Bosh and Wade are the cornerstones with Beasley and Chalmers rounding out the last 2. This leaves the Heat with about $12 million left in cap room. The Heat could go after a true center with this money. The only player that really fits that mold right now is Brendan Haywood. He made $6 million last year, and he didn't have a great post season last year. I'd expect the Heat to give him close to that amount. Lets say the Heat get generous and they know that Haywood is a double-double threat who is a big body and is good for a couple blocks a game as well as being in his prime, and they give him $7 million. That leaves the Heat with $5 million to spend under the cap.

They could split this $5 million among a few other free agents to upgrade their backup point guard spot, shooting guard spot, or power forward. Roger Mason would be a good fit here at $2.5 million. He is a scorer who can give a spark off the bench. In San Antonio he even got to run the point guard spot for a bit of time. I think that Mason would be a refreshing player off the bench when it is time for Dwade to sit or if they wanted to move Wade to the 1 when Chalmers went out, Mason would fit right in at the 2. Another player that would be Will Bynum to compete with Chalmers for the point guard spot. He is a scoring point guard who has shown that he can distribute as well. He would be a nice piece for the Heat.

The Heat will sign the 3 rookies Varnardo, Pittman, and Butler. They will also pursue a couple veteran free agents who will play for the minimum (as explained above), and then hope to re-sign Quentin Richardson and Joel Anthony. It is also worth noting that the Heat don't need a big name point guard because I still think they believe in Chalmers. I think that with Bosh in the low post, Chalmers will be able to distribute the ball a lot more and get more open shots. He should flourish in this new team.

Here is how the team looks under the "Without Lebron" scenario: starters: Chalmers, Wade, Bosh, Beasley and Joel Anthony
Bench: Will Bynum, Roger Mason, Beasley, Varnardo, Pittman, Butler, Quentin Richardson, and Allen Iverson (just for fun) with another veteran minimum.

Neither scenario looks too bad. Both are significant upgrades.