Off season to-do list: Nuggets

The Nuggets are an incredibly confusing team, to say the least. They have incredible talent on the team, but underachieve every single year. Most Denver fans will point to George Karl, but it has less to do with George Karl's coaching than it has to do with the chemistry of the team. There are a few things that the Nuggets could do that does not have to do with cutting George Karl from the head coaching position.

When AI was traded from Philly everyone thought putting him alongside Melo was going to create an unstoppable offensive force. Those predictions were true, and one of the few predictions about the Nuggets that came through. Melo and AI are obviously two incredible players who know how to score. It was sort of strange to hear Melo's name being thrown around in trade rumors. My theory on that is the Nugget's did that to scare Melo after his off-court troubles instead of actually trying to trade him. I have reason to believe that theory, other than the fact that trading for Chauncy Billups would have been a side step for the Nuggets and made them smaller in the front which would have made no sense for the Nuggets. The other name that came up was Rasheed Wallace and if the Nuggets were looking for a player that doesn't have off-court trouble, Wallce probably wasn't the right way to go anyway. Melo is staying in The Mile High City period.

The Nuggets got ousted by the Lakers 4-0. It was a sad reminder that this current Nugget team cannot get this done. A lot has not been said about this, but AI is in the last year of his contract and he is due to make $21.9 million this season. That is an unbelievable trade asset that the Nuggets have. I doubt that something happens before the season starts, but come February, if the right team puts together the right package, AI could be shipped out very quickly. Obviously AI has had a remarkable career, but his aging body has logged a ton of minutes and he has taken more punishment and injuries through his career than some team's starters combined have gone through. He did average 26.4 points, 7 assts, and 2 steals, but those numbers are down from his glory days in Philly. AI is one of the quickest players in the history of the NBA and no one is denying that. The pieces of the Nuggets are the main road block preventing them from doing damage in the Western Conference. The Nuggets could get great value back for AI because keeping him just causes problems. It would be foolish to sign him to another long term contract after this one expires in the summer of 2009 because he is an aging guard and it has not been working thus far. It is time for the Nuggets to part with AI. With AI's $21.9 million salary, a team could put together a very nice package. A team who needs a quick fix short-term fix in the back court, one of the best offensive assets in the league, quickness, toughness, and wants to secure sellouts every night could attempt to acquire his services and might explore trade options. No team immediately comes to mind, but just expect teams to be interested in his expiring contract and expect the Nuggets to listen intently.

The Nuggets seem to lack the strength and mental toughness needed to succeed in the West. AI has the mental and physical toughness and is a good defender, but this is where things get murky for the Nuggets. Outside of AI, it doesn't seem like any of the other players have that. Kenyon Martin made an astronomical salary of $13.2 million in this past season and is due to make $14.1 million in the coming year and it rises about $1.2 million over the next 3 years. This super athletic forward out of Cincinnati has had times where he has performed up to his salary, but not when it counts in the post season. He averaged 12.4 ppg, 6.5 rebs, and 1.2 blks. Those numbers are not terrible, and he was the third highest scoring Nugget by .1 point above J.R Smith, but those numbers are not living up to his salary. His contract is usually for a 20pt/10 reb/2.5 blks type of guy. He is an amazing defensive asset and he has the ability to shut down whoever he is guarding, but his offensive production might be hindered by Melo and AI taking 38 of the teams shots. To Martin's credit he does get a lot of clean up opportunities and shoots the highest field goal percentage on the team at 53.8%. He seemed to crack under the pressure of the playoffs and seems to be a little of a hothead on the court and his emotions dictate how he plays which is a huge liability for any NBA team, but K-Mart is by no means the only Nugget guilty of these flaws.

After Carmelo Anthony was drafted out of Syracuse he was hoped to be the franchise savior for the Nuggets. He has been able to keep them above water for the past few years, but never anywhere near what his 03' draft class buddies Lebron James and Dwayne Wade have done for their franchises since being drafted. The Cavs are consistently at the top of their conference as well as Wade bringing home a championship for Miami. Bosh and Melo have performed up to expectations individually, but have not been surrounded by the right mix of talent to finish the job. Melo is locked up under contract for the next 4 years with a salary that increases from $14.4 million and increases up to $18.5 million until the summer of 2012. This means that the Nuggets have put their franchise on Melo's shoulders and he needs to produce something besides a first round exit or the Nuggets will try and move in a different direction. Melo has been productive in his role as the team's cornerstone. He averaged 25.7 ppg and 7.4 rebs in the past season. The biggest flaw in Melo's game is not going to the rim enough. He too often settles for a mid-range jumpshot instead of using post moves that could utilize his size and strength. He also plays almost no defense which is probably the Nugget's biggest problem as a team.

J.R Smith is exploring different opportunities in different places and may not be in Denver next year. If he does happen to return to Denver he will make $2.3 million and his offensive production will be good enough to justify that contract. Smith needs to go to a new team. His personality is better suited to be on a team of veterans who are proven winners. The first team that comes to mind are the Spurs. Surrounding himself with teammates who can show him how to get to the elite level will be the best thing for his career. He is an incredibly talented player and would be a starter on 80% of teams in the league, but coming off the bench for Denver doesn't allow him to establish a rhythm early and has to rely on streaky shooting in order for him to be effective. His offensive performance against the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs will be remembered and teams will be willing to cut big checks for that kind of performance from Smith. If he gets on the right team, his underperforming 12.4ppg average will drastically increase. I have a lot of respect for his game, and he is an undervalued player because of the team he is on. At this point, he is not in a role where he can make the Nuggets a winner, and this may be one area where George Karl's misuse in utilizing his skills to their full capacity may be one area where George Karl has failed in.

The Nuggets collectively play little to no defense which explains why their opponents put in 89.1 field goals a game which is about 5 more field goals than the league average of 84.3 field goals from opponents per game. They have good defensive players on their team like Marcus Camby who was a former defensive player of the year in 2006 and averaged 3.61 blocks this past season. K-Mart is also a solid defensive player and AI has always been quick enough to stay in front of his man, but collectively the Nuggets look confused on defense and are slow on rotation and have terrible weak side help. The Nuggets lack the mental toughness and focus to be an elite team. It was almost every game against the Lakers in the first round that they lost their cool down the stretch when it was tight and their play just went downhill from there.


The squad they have assembled undoubtedly has the talent, on paper, to be one of the best teams in the league, but their constant underachievement implies that there is a problem somewhere. Some point at George Karl, some point at AI and Melo, some point at chemistry, and the list goes on, but it is a combination of all of it. The Nuggets are limited by the salary cap in what they can do this summer. Any movement for them will come via trades. If J.R Smith stays the Nuggets have a salary of $76.9 million dollars which is well above the salary cap. I wish I could say more to what they can and should do, but realistically, improving defensively and mentally are the only things they can do. Roster upgrades cannot come through the free agency period this year and that hurts a team who is constantly battling for the 8th spot in the playoffs every year. They have tried pairing one of the greatest offensive players of all time in Allen Iverson with one of the league's young superstars in Carmelo, but have failed to see any positive results. It may be another long year for Nuggets fans, as they continue to be just as confused by the lack of results as the Nuggets' front office. At this point, all the Nuggets fans can do is cling to the memories of the 90s success and hope this is just a lull in a franchise that is desperate for results.

Links:

This is a glimpse of Allen Iverson's workout and strength training program during the season.

Here is a close up look at the new Nike Hyperdunks at the low price of $240, and Kobe was even nice enough to sign a few pairs for those lucky enough to grab them in a releasing in Santa Monica.

Josh Smith got the star treatment in Philly and he could very well be a star there by July 9th.

My cousin and I were wondering who on Team USA was not sponsored by Nike. I named Dwight Howard because I vaguely remembered something about him being sponsored by Adidas. He is in fact sponsored by Adidas and the amazing photoshopers at Nike were able to do a great job at the old 'blackout-the-adidas-logo-in-team-photos' trick.

A friend and I were talking today about how many athletes go broke after they stop playing professionally. Right on cue, Vin Baker's house was filed for foreclosure because he was not able to make the payments on it. Here is a list of Vin Baker, and Lattrell Sprewell and other professional athletes who are in financial trouble.

I don't really know why this is news, but I guess for those incredibly interested in any breath the new rookie class is taking, here is the latest from the Miami Heat's early practices with Michael Beasley.

Picture sources: nbauniverse.com (first), nba.com (second), lakers.topbuzz.com (third), nba.com (fourth), jordanextreme.com (fifth), uk.eurosport.yahoo.com (sixth), espn.com (seventh)

Izzy

Off season to-do list: Clippers

UPDATE: Baron Davis signs a 5 year deal worth $65 million. I wrote this post before the news came out, so I changed some things, but disregard anything that does not take the Baron Davis signing into account.

We apologize for getting this post up late. Been swamped by the end of summer session and what not. There will be constant regular posts by the end of the week.
The forgotten LA team, the Clippers, will be very active this offseason. The notoriously stingy Donald Sterling will have to make the decision to re-sign his franchise player Elton Brand and starter Corey Maggettte. Elton Brand is asking for a $120 million. That sounds reasonable for a player of Brand's calibur, however, he played only 8 games last season because of an Achilles rupture and is reportedly waiting it out to see what the Clippers do to bring in free-agents. Look Brand, you are not going to free up that much cap space by opting out, asking for $120 million, but still trying to be the good guy by waiting for free-agents to sign with the Clippers. He should have kept the last end of his deal and not opted out if he was truly sincere about wanting to bring in free-agents. The best idea probably would have been to stay with his deal and finish out the last year and produce, and then become more active in the market next year. Although there will be no shortage of free agents next year, Brand still could have gotten the money he deserved if he played well this next season. I'm not surprised if Elgin Baylor is hesitant to knock on Sterling's office and ask him to cut a few checks worth $120 million dollars. Nevertheless, the Clippers will probably keep him on a long term deal, but this trade from a TrueHoop reader is intriguing. No one expected him to do this, but maybe he is unsure of how he will come back after the injury and wants to lock up as much guaranteed money as he can.

Corey Maggette is the next player the Clippers have to deal with. He made $7 million this past season and there have been rumors of him going back to play with the team he played for his rookie year, the Orlando Magic. Maggette is an extremely frustrating player. He is ridiculously athletic, but does not use it to his advantage consistently. He was the highest scoring Clipper this season with a 22.1 ppg average. He also logged 5.6 rebs and 2.7 assists. Those numbers are not bad and Maggette is right to be asking for money. Maybe it is frustrating to watch Maggette play because he has not been in the right system that allows him to use his athleticism to his full advantage. When he first came into the league he had flashes of greatness, but it seems that Maggette has spent his entire NBA career in mediocrity that it has become a habit for him now. A change would suit Maggette, and his talents and size would be great assets for most NBA teams. Expect the 6ers to make hard runs at Brand and Maggette. Maggette is probably more of a possibility for a Philadelphia considering how much money they have (around $11.5 million) to throw at Maggette as well. It doesn't make much sense for Philly to acquire Maggette since he plays the same position as Andre Iguodala which would give Philly two super-athletic players at the 3 who underachieve. There will be a lot of other teams interested in Maggette's services including the Suns who reportedly have the most interest in him and will probably explore a sign-and-trade involving Leandro Barbosa. Other teams only have the MLE to give Maggette which means about $2 million dollars less in pay.

This does not necessarily speak to Maggette's athleticism, but it shows how quick his reaction time adds up to 1 light year faster than the average joe, and more generally, how an NBA player's reaction time is compared to the average joe. It seems appropriate after a discussion of Maggette.



That takes care of the two big pieces for the Clippers. Looking at their lineup there is a player by the name of Cutino Mobley on the books that got paid $8.3 million this last season and due to make $9.1 million this coming season. It seems like Mobley's bad play can go under the radar because he is playing for a bad team, but a closer looks shows that, he only averages 12.8 ppg, 3.6 rebs, and 2.6 assts. To put that in perspective, he averaged the exact same number of points as Same Cassell did before he went to Boston. The other two categories of rebs and assts are pretty close also. You may say, "well, Cassell overachieved and he handled the ball more than Mobley." Well, Mobley averaged a full 10 minutes more than Cassell, as well as averaged 11.3 field-goal attempts compared to Cassel's 10.6 field-goal attempts, and shot 47.2% from the field which is almost exactly the same as Cassell's 47.3% avg from the field. Mobley is a heavy contract on the team's payroll and is not getting any younger as he will turn 33 on September 1st.

Mobley does not seem to be the Clipper's biggest problem. Mobley will squeeze out every penny of that $42 million dollar 5 year contract with the Clippers, but he still has potential to produce at numbers like 15ppgs with a few dishes and a couple more boards IF he gets the right point guard. That seems to be the biggest hole for the Clippers. The injury to Shaun Livingston was tragic, but I think that every basketball fan is pulling for him to make a full recovery. His status is still up in the air and it seems unlikely that he will be able to produce like the emerging star pre-injury, and probably will not get signed by a team during this free-agent period. Their starting guard, the Stanford legend, Brevin Knight, has had to carry the load. Unfortunately, putting the weight of the playoffs on the aging guard's shoulders is asking a little too much. Knight has always only been a backup point guard at best in the league and has never been able live up to a starter role. The next mistake of the Clippers was signing Smush Parker. You would think that being arena roommates with the Lakers would allow them to see just how bad Smush Parker is. Even if that didn't help, the fact that Phil Jackson and Pat Riley, two of the best "personality handlers" in the history of the league couldn't deal with him, what would make any Clipper official think Mike Dunleavy could? His whopping 6.4 ppg and 3.4 assts in his 19 games in Clipper colors was probably enough to show the Clippers just how bad signing him was, but Clipper fans can breathe a sigh of relief knowing he is gone now. There was always Dan Dickau though right? The drafting of Eric Gordon should help the Clipper's problems in the backcourt a little bit, but Gordon is more of a combo guard and it is a little much to expect him to be the franchise point guard. I think Gordon will be a solid NBA player, but not in the next year or two.

The two bright spots for the Clippers are their center, Chris Kaman, and their young prospect Al Thornton. There is no real backup for Kaman unless you think Tim Thomas is a credible center, the Clippers need to address that gap. With the right players, Kaman can be one of the top 5 centers in the league. He is an incredible asset that logs the most minutes on the team at 37.2 minutes per game with 15.7 ppg and 12.7 rebs a game. Thornton is a very good player that will find a spot on an NBA roster for many years to come. He still has a lot of work to do, and needs to increase his 4.5 rebs per game and overall defense in order for him to be an all-around solid player.

The work for the Clippers in the front court is basically done if they can resign Brand and Maggette, but the backcourt problem for the A guy like Baron Davis changes the whole complexity of the Clipper's back court. They are now a serious threat in the Western Conference, and the arms race in the Western Conference continues, and it seems like the Lakers have some big competition now. This offseason just got very interesting. It seems like there is spillover from all the big name movement during the season into the offseason.

Links:

I'm sure a lot of you have seen this, but when you win the championship blowing those bonuses in Vegas while hanging out with the boxer of the hour, doesn't seem so bad.



Chris Douglas-Roberts could have been a first-rounder but he didn't go to some workouts. He even didn't workout out for his home town team, the Pistons! Obviously a player can't make every workout he is invited to, but at least go to one or two below where you are projected to be drafted. It is time that the NBA move to an NFL combine type system.

Fellow blogspot site, Basketbawful, has some great stuff on their site. They posted an amazing NBA fact yesterday about a really shady triple-double by the Magic's Anthony Bowie. Of course, Shaq backed the decision up too.

Speaking of Shaq, this is a great freestyle SLAM's Russ Bengtson put up of a possible Kobe freestyle response to Shaq's antics last week. It is...looong.

The "Everytime-Jay-Bilas-says-'long'-and-'upside'-we-take-a-drink" game was brought to Jay Bilas' attention and he promptly stopped using those words and started using some other interesting synonyms.

China hates Yi Jianlin at nightclubs because it puts their Olympic gold medal in basketball at stake. Someone should inform them that they have a -100 to 0 chance at winning the medal this year. I'd put their shots of medaling at about -30 to 0.

Picture Sources: sportingnews.com (first), ballhype.com (second), sportsillustrated.com (third), nba.com (fourth), realgm.com (fifth), clippers.topbuzz.com, slamdunkcentral.com (seventh)

Izzy

Offseason to-do list: Sonics reposted

Throughout the next week or so, we will be putting up posts for what teams need to do to get better. It will be in a very random order as we have writers working on different teams and getting their work in at different times. As you have probably figured out, we will start with the Sonics.

I guess the first thing the Sonics need to do is to sort out this mess about their arena. When Howard Schultz bought the team he was seen as one of the premier owners in the league. After he sold the team to Clay Bennett of Oklahoma City, it has become a disaster for the city of Seattle as well as Oklahoma City. With the move to Oklahoma City the Sonics have ceased to exist and will need new colors as well as a new team name. It is sad for a team like the Sonics to just be a part of history without any new updates, but this sort of moving used to happen all the time before the CBA and ABA merger.

Now to the players.

The Sonics have drafted extremely well the last 2 years. They have a young team with an average age of 24.5. Kevin Durant is clearly one of the brightest young stars in the league today. People outside of the Seattle market rarely get to see him play, but if you saw him last summer holding his own during the USA Team scrimmage it was pretty impressive. He is clearly one of the best talents in the league that is seldom talked about because of the success, or lackthereof, of his team. Besides Durant, the Sonics picked up a solid player in Jeff Green that logged a 10.5 ppg and 5 rebs average this season. By rookie standards, not great, but not bad. I think as a complementary player to Durant he will be fine, and that is what Seattle needs him to be. He is a fairly aggressive player that needs to improve on defense. Both Durant and Green are the only Sonic players on the roster pre-2008 draft that have contracts till the summer of 2012.

A lot of people think that taking Westbrook was a surprising pick at #4. I was a little surprised that they didn't go for size, but Westbrook is one of the best players in this year's draft class. He is a little shaky offensively, but with Durant as the focal point of the offense he doesn't need to be a tremendous scorer. He is an amazing lockdown defender and is very intelligent with the ball. He could be one of the best point guards in the league someday if he lives up to his potential. He was the third UCLA point guard taken in the last three years, and Darren Collison coming out next year, so UCLA has to be doing something right with their point guards. The issue with the Sonics back court right now is that they have 3 point guards after drafting Westbrook. With Watson and Ridnour scheduled to make 13.1 million in 08-09, and the expected rookie max contract of about 4.5 million for Westbrook, that is over 17.5 million just on the back court. That is a steep price to be spending on 3 players all playing one position. This could be the Sonics setting up some sort of trade in the future.

As for the Sonics other picks, Ibake, White, and Hardin, respectively, I don't think any of them are going to make an impact on the Sonics immediately. P.J Carlesimo has great experience dealing with young teams so he will be able to handle their development effectively. A note on Devon Hardin: Here is a player who was projected to go mid to late first round last year but decided to stay an extra year and dropped into the mid second round. There are several other players that happened to this year, and it is no wonder the majority of players leave earlier rather than later when their stock is highest for that guaranteed money, and lots of it. I just wish college fans who don't watch the NBA would understand that.

The front court for the Sonics is incredibly weak with Collison and Petro at the 4 and 5 spots, respectively. It is the reason why many people thought the Sonics were going to go for size with their #4 pick and possibly why they kept the pick instead of trading it to the Clippers. I think that ultimately the Sonics will be dominated in the Western Conference with a weak front line like this. The players that they should look to get in a trade are defensive shot blockers and rebounders.

The Sonics clearly want to add a heavier defensive presence because it is clearly proven that defense is the deciding factor among teams in the league, especially in the Western Conference. They do accomplish defense, but only occasionally. The Sonics score in bursts, but the problem is that they can seldom play defense during these scoring bursts. Chances are, the other team will be able to get stops during stretches of just trading baskets. The Sonics biggest challenge will be to add a strong collective defensive presence and hit shots more consistently. It is a common problem for young teams like the Sonics to go on large droughts of scoring and scoring runs. They are also the type of team that feeds off of the other end of the floor. That is, what they do on one end has a direct impact on the other side. Good defense leads to good offense, bad defense leads to bad offense, and vice versa. They let their opponents shoot 50.6% from the field while they are shooting 46% which isn't terrible, but their numbers suggest it is due to defense. The Sonics averages clearly indicate they can score, but the lack of defense is a problem that most likely won't be fixed this year and amidst all of the arena controversy they will be a team that will be in a rebuilding stage for a few more years to come.

This has nothing to do with the Sonics, but I couldnt resist putting this up even though I am a Wake student and Josh Howard supporter. It is for charity though...

Picture Source: faniq.com (top), pictopia.com (middle), sports.espn.com (bottom)

Izzy

Predictions for The Rest of The Lottery

Hello NBA fans, it's that time of year again. Every dog gets his day, and this is the day when both bad and good teams have something to look forward to. Whether its because you tanked the end of your season or you are one piece away from being a contender this draft this draft is shaping up to result some pretty interesting picks.

Now that no more pre-draft trades will be released, and we know where players have worked out so far here are my predictions for the 2008 NBA Draft.

Updates:

O' Neal Confirms Moves to Raptors
-Reportedly TJ Ford and Rasho Nesterovic and number 17 pick for Jermaine O'Neal

Clippers and Sonics Trade pick if Minnesota choose OJ Mayo
-4th pick for 7th pick and future first round pick

New Jersey Trades Richard Jefferosn
- Richard Jefferson for Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlian

Double L's Predictions:

1. Chicago Bulls- Derrick Rose
Can't pass up on a sure thing, especially if he's a point guard. Rose is already hoping to be League MVP as Rookie.

2. Miami Heat- Michael Beasley
Pat Riley and company may not be the biggest fans, but he is the best big man in the draft and would be a mistake to pass up on.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves- OJ Mayo
Kevin McHale is apparently torn between Love and Mayo, however what Mayo has already shown and his potential upside will make Minnesota draft the best player available rather then fufilling a need in the front court.

4. Seattle Supersonics- Eric Gordon
Since Mayo is gone, it looks like the pick will go to the Clippers. With Maggette likely opting out, and Mobley getting up there in age, Gordon would be extremely beneficial to the Clippers wing.

5. Memphis Grizzlies- Kevin Love
When you trade Pau Gasol for Kwame Brown and sign Darko Milicic you know your front court needs help. Grizzlies have a bunch of young point guards with a lot of potential, a great role player in Mike Miller and rising star Rudy Gay. Love would defeintely fill a big gaping whole for the Grizz.

6. New York Knicks- Russell Westbrook
The New York Knicks have a lot of things, bad contracts, unhappy players, and a lot of crap. Two things that the Knicks don't have is a level minded player, and a defesneive oriented player. Two things Westbrook provides.

7. Los Angeles Clippers- Jerryd Bayless
Seattle really scored it here. They traded up and were able to get the player they wanted. Brook Lopez was the in case Bayless gets picked, picked, however he should still be available and the pick Seattle would actually prefer. After picks such as Robert Swift, Mouhamed Sene, and Johan Petro Seattle can't draft another potential failed big man...unless it will help them speed up the moving process...

8. Milwaukee Bucks- De Andre Jordan
With Richard Jefferson on board and Yi out, the Bucks will look to boost up the PF position. Randolph has more upside, but Jordan is more ready to contribute now.

9. Charlotte Bobcats- Brook Lopez
Offensive Center next to defensive Emeka Okafor. Looks like a good fit, plus Richardson and Wallace fill the wings, while Jordan still has faith in Raymond Felton

10. New Jersey Nets- Joe Alexander
With Richard Jefferson out New Jersey is the one who now needs a small forward. Alexander is extremely skilled and athletic and will be a good young piece for New Jerseys rebuilding and moving to Brooklyn.

11. Indiana Pacers- Anthony Randolph
Man the trades seem to be following where teams want to fill their holes. And with Jermaine O'Neal likely to be shipped out, Pacers no longer are in need of a point guard with TJ Ford. Instead they will be looking for Randolph to step into the role for Jermaine O'Neal in a few years. He has the potential to, but will he?

12. Sacramento Kings- DJ Augustin
Somewhat of an undersized point guard, but one that will bring athleticism and a pass first mentality. Something Kings fans may not remember since before Jason Williams.

13.Portland Trailblazers- Danilo Gallinari
A point guard would be ideal here, but Small Forward is Portlands next weakest position. He is a very intellegient player with good shooting abilities, and doesn't seem to have a criminal record.

14. Golden State Warriors- Kosta Koufos
With Don Nelson returning, small ball/fast paced offensive will still dictate the Warriors. Because of Warriors lack of size up front a big man would be useful, and this one doesn't disrupt their style of play. While he is only average in the post, and not much of a banger/defender he will at least be able to hit the open shot and operate in the high post.

Guest writer Mark Hays writes about his experience with 3 of the lottery picks in the 08' NBA draft class while yawning

Working on the New York Stock Exchange this week, I’ve listened and participated in countless conversations about stocks, interest rates, and…sports. The majority of traders on the exchange seem to know and put just as much effort into knowing all about the stocks they trade as into sports. A quick walk through the floor reveals men huddled around their computers watching the EuroCup, while others bet on horse racing and argue about a variety of teams. This being said, on Tuesday morning, at approximately 9:20, three massive figures were ushered into the floor to ring the opening bell, as “three of the top NBA draft picks for 2008.” In a normal year, the place would buzz with excitement, with everyone recognizing some of the top stars they’ve seen in college. This year was different. This year’s stars ringing the opening bell were UCLA’s Kevin Love, LSU’s Anthony Randolph, and WVU’s Joe Alexander, all projected to be chosen in the top 15 of the draft. Instead of excited shouts of recognition, confusion filled the air. “Who are these tall guys?” muttered one, while another said, “That’s not Beasley is it?” When finally being told who the three were, no one had heard of anyone besides Love (By the way, Kevin Love looks like a completely different person. He has gone from the fat kid from SuperBad to Tom Hanks in Cast Away in a matter of months). With a collective shrug of disinterest, everyone turned back to their computers, and their discussions of other sports. These confused comments are likely the same ones heard around the country tonight, when the NBA Draft takes place. Take away Rose, Beasley, and O.J. Mayo, and what you have is bunch of no-names who most likely will not have a large impact on the league. In other years the top 15 or 20 players would be instantly recognized by at least their names, while this year, numbers 4-30 will inspire little to no reaction. Expect Thursday night to feature groans, few cheers, and a constant flow of “Who?”

Picture source: matildamajor.com

Top 3 Pick Analysis

1. Chicago Bulls

Derrick Rose
Memphis- Point Guard

While the top two picks (Rose and Beasley) are both NBA ready and will likely be all star caliber players, it will probably end up being too tough for Chicago to pass up on Derrick Rose. Even though Beasley would fit perfectly into Chicago's weakest position at PF, Chicago knows the team will be much better upgrading Duhon, Gordon, and Hinrich (especially after his terrible season last year). Rose for one thing is a pass-first point guard, which now in the league is a dime for dozen. Even rarer Rose plays relentless defense with quick hands and length in addition to being 6'4". Rose's best asset is probably his athleticism, where his speed is going to beat players off the dribble and finish at the basket (even with the foul) or find the open man (with his excellent court vision). On top of all this Rose does not have the questionable attitude problems, and actually is a very intense player on the court, but calm and composed off of it.
If there's any doubt John Paxson will pass on Rose, Just talk to the Atlanta Hawks about how it feels to pass up on an all star point guard (Chris Paul, Deron Williams). Oh, and Rose is from Chicago. Done Deal.

2. Miami Heat

Michael Beasley
Kansas State- SF/PF

As much of a power player Beasley was in Kansas State he might find a more natural position as Small Forward in the NBA. In fact the more I think about it, the more I find him comparable to Carmelo Anthony in college. Carmelo: 22 points, 10 rebounds, 2.2 Assists, 1.3 steals and Beasley: 26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.3 steals are quite similar, also taking into consideration Anthony played in the Big East while Beasley played in the Big 12. In addition with Beasley actually being 6'8" and not the team labeled 6'10" the twos heights and weights are pretty similar. On top of that, the both can score the ball in a multitude of ways. Beasley has shown it on the outside, probably capable of shooting the NBA 3, from the inside with his hooks, put-backs, and spins, and is especially deadly from the mid-range. Beasley is tough and athletic, and will not have a problem in the triple threat position from the mid-range. From a defensive standpoint Beasley holds his own man to man but gets in trouble on team defense where he almost looks lost. Sometimes, it seems Beasley only carries a scoring only mentality, where he over dribbles, takes bad shots, and fails to pass (as seen by his 1.2 assists per game). Beasley has so much potential, and if he is able to put it together can have a long and successful career. But with the various questions about his attitude and team play, no wonder Miami might be looking to trade the pick. However, because Miami must pick before it is traded, Beasley will most definitely be wearing a Heats cap if only momentarily.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves

OJ Mayo
USC- G

For this third pick, the age old question of need versus best available comes up again. For the Minnesota Timberwolves, getting an offensively polished PF/C like Brook Lopez, or NBA ready Kevin Love would help the young T-pups in a lot of ways. Particularly paired with Al Jefferson who can shift down to his more natural Power Forward spot, two legitimate front court players would add a lot of help to this young team, who has already has a lot of young and improving backcourt players. Never the less, in this situation, OJ Mayo will probably be too good to pass up on. With players like vetran Greg Buckner, injured Randy Foye, troublesome Sebastian telfair and inconsistent Marko Jaric and Rashad McCants this pick would also still be a huge upgrade. Because Mayo has had his share of Point Guard experience, he will be able to add some ball handling and passing ability to the backcourt. Where Mayo is particularly dangerous is his amazing ability to score the ball. Despite being an undersized two guard Mayo quickness allows him to explode past his defender to the basket, where he has an amazing ability to finish. On top of that if you play off of him, you'll see he can defeintely hit the three even beyond the NBA three range. Mayo's shooting is extremely polished, and his basketball IQ is one of the best offensively. With this comes a little bit of attitude and swagger which has both its positives and negatives. Mayo's defense is managable, but it's his repotire of offensive skills and abilities that still make OJ Mayo a top three pick for sure.

Photo Source: ESPN.com

Europe vs. College and why the NBA does not care

This whole Brandon Jennings story hasn't surprised me at all. Everyone HAD to know that this was bound to happen. When NBA passed the rule that one must be 19 years old to enter the draft, everyone immediately knew the benefits, repercussions, and motives of the rule.

General history and overview:Professional sports lives off of young talent, with the majority, coming from drafts and farm systems. Each player is a huge investment to the team, so it makes sense when leagues like the NFL and the NBA make age-eligibility rules. The NFL has less of a problem with guys coming into the league unprepared because with a few exceptions, football players need those two years out of high school to develop physically and mentally for the rigors of the NFL. The NBA is a much different type of system. Players can make the jump into the league without college experience. The players who are capable of that are the ones who can thrive solely off of talent. Success stories of this method are players like Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Amare Stoudamire, Lebron James and Tracy McGrady, just to name a few. Those players are all household names. Those player's quick success in the league paved the way for many extremely talented high school stars to think they could make the jump to the NBA. Unfortunately, that dream for most players is fools gold. Players flop far more often than reach the status of the aforementioned superstars. Flops have included Sebastian Telfair, Kwame Brown, Gerald Green, Martell Webster, and you could even make the argument for Daryll Dawkins, the first player to be taken out of high school who is commonly cited as the player who will always be judged on his dunks and mediocre career than what he was supposed to be. All of those players were lottery picks, and Kwame Brown was the much heralded #1 pick. The latter named players have had character issues and seldom have the work ethic to live up to their potential and make it as a star in the league (Kwame Brown was said to have been more interested in his Xbox than working out and learning plays). None of those players panned out to what they were supposed to be. Yeah sure, some of them are still in the NBA, but they wont be for much longer, and if they are, it won't be in a role they were projected to be.

If you don't belive the character issues, here is Telfair getting into trouble two times that can be traced back to poor decision making.

And here is a video of Darius Miles getting busted with a friend for pot. In the background you can hear Darius Miles scream, when the officer tells them to get on the ground, "But I'm Darius Miles!"



The NBA team and league's perspective: Stern had been thinking about making an age requirement for years. He constantly spoke of his 'worry' that he saw so many young high school players foregoing college and putting their name in the draft. The nightmare scene that Stern painted of agents lurking middle-school campuses and promising players and their families a fantasy life and urging their clients to not attend college and hire them for their services was a motivation for the age rule. That was a noble move by the NBA. A possible "NBA Cares" campaign, however, that was not what the rule was intended to do at all. Stern's worry then changed to an admittance that the rule is for teams to have a year to evaluate a player before investing in his services. It is, basically, a 6 month workout farm system. NBA scouts are able to evaluate and collaborate about players and judge their performance under a plethora of different circumstances including the biggest pressure cooker, the NCAA tournament. The bottom line, it benefits the NBA from a basketball and financial standpoint. Under the new rule, players can go to Europe and NBA scouts have the same benefits as they would get if the player were to stay in the States and play. Bottom line is that the NBA and their teams are not impacted by whatever the player chooses.

The NCAA perspective: The NCAA feeds off of big name future NBA stars coming into top programs in the country. They use these stars to attract endorsements and fans into stadiums. We are enamored by the prospect of seeing players like O.J Mayo and Michael Beasley, future NBA player and potential superstar, live up to the hype and carry the Trojans and Kansas State, respectively, to victory at a generously priced ticket. Suddenly, fans don't care if they which team they are rooting for. They have come to see the big time player play for a big time school. It is the marketing of superstars that fans into stadiums which is contradictory to the team philosophy the NCAA tries to promote, but it brings in revenue. It is the same formula the NBA uses and the NCAA does not mind to have players that help foster this attitude. Fans want to catch a glimpse of the next best thing, and the NCAA couldn't be happier to display it. It is a piggy back system that both leagues benefit from. Of course, the NCAA is never consulted about decisions from professional leagues, but it rarely impacts or works against the NCAA, until now. The NCAA has gotten an eye opening case with Jennings. They could potentially lose one of the top players in the country to European basketball. This could be a slippery slope for the NCAA as more players follow Jennings. There are drawbacks and benefits on both sides of the debate, but it is almost certain that the NCAA likes the idea of marketing young future NBA stars. If Jennings starts a trend, and is not the exception, this could put the NCAA back to where it was before the rule started.

The college coach's perspective: Bob Knight was one of the most outspoken critics of the age rule. His argument is very valid. Players who come to college knowing they are good enough for the NBA do not embody what the NCAA preaches. That is, the student-athlete exceeding in the classroom while exceeding on the sporting field. It becomes a sort of athlete purgatory for these players, simply to wait it out until they are eligible to make a jump to the league. Knight argues that players need only average a 2.0 during the first semester and do not even need to go to class the next semester because their ineligibility will not be in effect until the following semester when they have already left. To further Knight's argument, the program of the school is undermined because players are not playing the team game that is so coveted in college, and as many fans cite, the reason they prefer college ball to pro ball, is lost. Players go into college and instead of playing for their team, play for their NBA contract and put their skills on display more often than making the right move. This may not always be true, but it is definitely a potential side effect from the rule.
It also keeps the coach and program in a constant state of limbo from year to year, and fans as well as administration do not know what to expect from year to year. Will the player who didn't live up to the hype stay? Does this mean we have more scholarships and roster spots? What about endorsements? And now, coaches can still lose players like they were before the rule was instated and players can make commitments and just go to Europe, just like they would break commitments and go to the NBA before the rule. The one benefit to coaches and college programs was that players would honor their commitments, or so they thought. Under the current rule, players like Telfair and Johnson can still snub Louisville (or whatever school) and go to Europe (ask Rick Pitino if you need more clarification). Stability is generally the best way to build a winning team. Putting your program on the shoulder of a one-year-and-out player with dreams of the NBA does not sound like a stable prospect.

The players perspective: A top ranked player faces a choice out of high school since the conception of the age rule. Do I go to college or Europe? The question that should be asked by the program that recruited the top player is, "What if that player does not meet NCAA requirements?" It is a very real hypothetical that Jennings could be the first player to possibly pioneer: the world of European basketball before the NBA. The rationale is simple. The players can make a good salary abroad while still showcasing their skills, and then return for the draft. For a young player with dreams of NBA riches, it is easy to settle for an $800,000 salary with a European team. The European teams don't have a shortage of players, and the couple hundred thousand dollar rental fee is minimal compared to what they make in return.

The end result is this. Jennings will not be the last player to be exploring the lure of European basketball before making the jump into the NBA. The NBA does not care what a player chooses because their underlying goal is to evaluate players and have a better look before investing in the player. The NBA front offices and the administration will ultimately get what they want no matter what the player chooses. The player gets what he wants and so does the team. If the player doesn't live up to his expectation maybe NBA teams will be more willing to forgive that and blame it more on the European style of play than the player himself. In the end, the real losers here are the NCAA, the programs, and fans. Of course, the NCAA can't make players stay for the duration of their eligibility, so I guess they have to continue living in a state of uncertainty and let the Brandon Jennings' of the world dictate the future of college basketball.

Links:

This is an excellent draft article that is informative as well as humorous.

Why Michael Beasley might drop in the draft like Amare Stoudamire did. If the Heat are smart, they will have learned from Stoudamire's case, and not screw this up.

You want to be in the draft? You want to be in the NBA and NFL? Well, here is why you can't be.

What is the reason no one in this year's draft has a shoe deal yet? Darren Rovell, has an answer for that.

NBA Draft Thursday, June 26th, 2008 at Madison Square Garden. Can be seen on ESPN at 7pm EST.

Picture Sources: brandonjennings.net (first), scout.com (second), arcadia.edu (third), weblogs.newsday.com (fourth)

Izzy