Tyson Chandler and Joe Smith/Chris Wilcox Trade Analysis

The second big trade in the last week happened earlier today. The news came out that the Hornets' Tyson Chandler, and the draft rights to former Cal star, Devon Hardin, had been swapped for the Thunder's Joe Smith and Chris Wilcox.

This was a very interesting move. It had been rumored for a long time that the Hornets were looking to deal Tyson Chandler because of his monster deal. He is due to make about $23 million the next two seasons with an option of $12 million in the 2011/2012 season. This move made a lot of financial sense for the Hornets. The Hornets had a payroll of $67 million this season which is $4.15 million under the salary cap right now. They would have been due to pay $77 million next season, but with this trade, they are able to get the expiring contracts of Joe Smith and Chris Wilcox, which will give them more flexibility. Smith and Wilcox make a combined $11.4 million this season, and that will all come off the books for the Hornets next year. In the short term, the Hornets are pretty much out of the discussion to win the West. Wilcox and Joe Smith just can't handle the Pau Gasols, the Tim Duncans, the Yao Mings, the Nenes and the rest of the tall Western Conference forwards and centers. Although Chandler is still recovering from an injury that has kept him out since January 20th, he should be expected to maintain his current level of production. The Hornets have given up their best shot blocker, and since dominant bigmen are so hard to come by in the NBA, losing the 7'1 Chandler is a big blow to them inside. Chandler was not the most productive offensive player, but he understood how to play as a big man. He averages 8.8 ppg, but he knows his value doesn't come from the offensive end. It won't have to with the rapid development of Durant, Green, and Westbrook. Chandler doesn't have an incredibly threatening post game, but he was an incredible rebounder and one of the best shot blockers in the league averaging 8.4 rebs and 1.4 blks a game. Those numbers are a little low considering his size, but rest assured, players think twice before trying to put a shot up over Chandler. He is a definite asset in the middle. He will help the Thunder develop their team. He will be an excellent complement to Durant, Green, and Westbrook. The Thunder are obviously not a very good defensive team, and Chandler has made a living off of his defense and rebounding. A good fit for them overall. The one x-factor I see here is Chandler meshing with the front court of Nenad Kristic and Nick Collison. The upside is that Chandler is 26, which is great for the Thunder because they wanted to allow their core of young talent grow together, and Chandler will undoubtedly facilitate that growth, and be very much a part of it. Another part of Chandler's game that is often overlooked because he doesn't get that many points is his FG%. He shoots 56.3% from the field. It is further proof that this guy can play around the basket, and is a finisher. Remember, Chandler was playing with the US team for the summers prior to the Beijing games so he has been around the best in the league, and has practiced with the best in the world. His veteran leadership as well as his skill set will be a valuable tool for the Thunder's growth.

As for New Orleans, they get Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith. The Hornets have stated that they think Wilcox is athletic and will fit into their system. I have yet to see it. He is listed at 6'10 and 235. Every time I have seen him play, he has been a lackluster defender, and at times gets lost in the game. He is not a big threat on the offensive or defensive end. He averages 8.4 ppg, and 5.3 rebs. Wilcox is going to have a tough time guarding anyone in the West. Granted, those numbers are from this year, and it is hard to get motivated when you are playing for one of the worst teams in the NBA, but Wilcox is in a contract year. We all know what that does to players. It motivates them. If Wilcox can find that "trade inspiration" as I like to call it (when a player moves from a bad team to a good team), he might be an asset to the Hornets for the latter half of this year. Do I really think he is going to have an amazing end of the season? No, but I'm trying to be as optimistic for the Hornets as possible. Joe Smith is pretty much an older version of Chris Wilcox (Both of them are Maryland products. I had to get that ACC jab in there.). Smith is also 6'10, but is 10lbs lighter than Wilcox at 235lbs. He is basically split minutes with Wilcox down the middle in OKC with both players playing about 19 minutes a game. Smith averages about 6.6 ppg and 4.5 rebs. As you can see, both Wilcox and Smith are not big threats either way. Neither player averages more than a block a game. In fact, the average blocks per game for both Smith and Wilcox is .55 blocks a game. They will be a non-factor inside. It is a crucial loss for the Hornets who thrived on Chandler being able to body-up inside. I do believe that this is Hornets GM Jeff Bower's way of saying, "We will see you next season." He can't be criticized too heavily for that considering how clear cut the race in the West is getting. Bower has learned from the Phoenix Suns case study that having the best point guard in the league, an all-star PF, and some shooters is not going to win you a championship. In fact, it will bring you to the brink of a championship only to realize that the team is not good enough, and completely melt down. Bower is avoiding that. He will updoubtedly sign a Center this summer, and look to next season. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Antonio McDyess, and Rasho Nesterovic are among the big name unrestricted free agents this summer. I don't doubt that the Hornets will go hardcore after one of those players. The Hornets will test their limit in the playoffs. They will play as hard as they can, and see where their deficiency lies. After they figure that out, they will be very active in the offseason. The future looks good for New Orleans.

Offseason to-do list: Sonics reposted

Throughout the next week or so, we will be putting up posts for what teams need to do to get better. It will be in a very random order as we have writers working on different teams and getting their work in at different times. As you have probably figured out, we will start with the Sonics.

I guess the first thing the Sonics need to do is to sort out this mess about their arena. When Howard Schultz bought the team he was seen as one of the premier owners in the league. After he sold the team to Clay Bennett of Oklahoma City, it has become a disaster for the city of Seattle as well as Oklahoma City. With the move to Oklahoma City the Sonics have ceased to exist and will need new colors as well as a new team name. It is sad for a team like the Sonics to just be a part of history without any new updates, but this sort of moving used to happen all the time before the CBA and ABA merger.

Now to the players.

The Sonics have drafted extremely well the last 2 years. They have a young team with an average age of 24.5. Kevin Durant is clearly one of the brightest young stars in the league today. People outside of the Seattle market rarely get to see him play, but if you saw him last summer holding his own during the USA Team scrimmage it was pretty impressive. He is clearly one of the best talents in the league that is seldom talked about because of the success, or lackthereof, of his team. Besides Durant, the Sonics picked up a solid player in Jeff Green that logged a 10.5 ppg and 5 rebs average this season. By rookie standards, not great, but not bad. I think as a complementary player to Durant he will be fine, and that is what Seattle needs him to be. He is a fairly aggressive player that needs to improve on defense. Both Durant and Green are the only Sonic players on the roster pre-2008 draft that have contracts till the summer of 2012.

A lot of people think that taking Westbrook was a surprising pick at #4. I was a little surprised that they didn't go for size, but Westbrook is one of the best players in this year's draft class. He is a little shaky offensively, but with Durant as the focal point of the offense he doesn't need to be a tremendous scorer. He is an amazing lockdown defender and is very intelligent with the ball. He could be one of the best point guards in the league someday if he lives up to his potential. He was the third UCLA point guard taken in the last three years, and Darren Collison coming out next year, so UCLA has to be doing something right with their point guards. The issue with the Sonics back court right now is that they have 3 point guards after drafting Westbrook. With Watson and Ridnour scheduled to make 13.1 million in 08-09, and the expected rookie max contract of about 4.5 million for Westbrook, that is over 17.5 million just on the back court. That is a steep price to be spending on 3 players all playing one position. This could be the Sonics setting up some sort of trade in the future.

As for the Sonics other picks, Ibake, White, and Hardin, respectively, I don't think any of them are going to make an impact on the Sonics immediately. P.J Carlesimo has great experience dealing with young teams so he will be able to handle their development effectively. A note on Devon Hardin: Here is a player who was projected to go mid to late first round last year but decided to stay an extra year and dropped into the mid second round. There are several other players that happened to this year, and it is no wonder the majority of players leave earlier rather than later when their stock is highest for that guaranteed money, and lots of it. I just wish college fans who don't watch the NBA would understand that.

The front court for the Sonics is incredibly weak with Collison and Petro at the 4 and 5 spots, respectively. It is the reason why many people thought the Sonics were going to go for size with their #4 pick and possibly why they kept the pick instead of trading it to the Clippers. I think that ultimately the Sonics will be dominated in the Western Conference with a weak front line like this. The players that they should look to get in a trade are defensive shot blockers and rebounders.

The Sonics clearly want to add a heavier defensive presence because it is clearly proven that defense is the deciding factor among teams in the league, especially in the Western Conference. They do accomplish defense, but only occasionally. The Sonics score in bursts, but the problem is that they can seldom play defense during these scoring bursts. Chances are, the other team will be able to get stops during stretches of just trading baskets. The Sonics biggest challenge will be to add a strong collective defensive presence and hit shots more consistently. It is a common problem for young teams like the Sonics to go on large droughts of scoring and scoring runs. They are also the type of team that feeds off of the other end of the floor. That is, what they do on one end has a direct impact on the other side. Good defense leads to good offense, bad defense leads to bad offense, and vice versa. They let their opponents shoot 50.6% from the field while they are shooting 46% which isn't terrible, but their numbers suggest it is due to defense. The Sonics averages clearly indicate they can score, but the lack of defense is a problem that most likely won't be fixed this year and amidst all of the arena controversy they will be a team that will be in a rebuilding stage for a few more years to come.

This has nothing to do with the Sonics, but I couldnt resist putting this up even though I am a Wake student and Josh Howard supporter. It is for charity though...

Picture Source: faniq.com (top), pictopia.com (middle), sports.espn.com (bottom)

Izzy