Grading the Recent Moves

There are a few recent moves that have caught my eye. The Heat are trying to put players around their dream trio, the Bucks are quietly making moves, the Rockets added some "Yao Insurance", and the Warriors made a move for David Lee. Lets grade these recent moves and do some quick analysis on the impact it is going to have on the teams.

Zydrunas Ilguaskas to Heat: That will complete the Heat starting 5. I'm still not sold that Z is good enough to be an impact player. He will provide a great inside presence, and having Bosh alongside him at PF will be a formidable lineup. Z is one of the best shot blockers in the league, but his offensive production has fallen off. He averaged only 7.4ppg and 5.4 rebs last season. Down from his career averages of 17.8ppg and 7.7 rebs. Just like every other player on the Heat not named Bosh, Wade, or Lebron, the pressure will not be on Z to score. He will be asked to provide defensive presence and to rebound the ball. Any way you look at it, it will be tough for teams to deal with this front-line.Zydrunas Ilgauskas to Heat: Following your superstar is never a bad idea. Big Z was fiercely loyal to Cleveland, but just like everyone else, he realized thatCleveland is in big trouble. He is the big man that the Heat needed. His presence is going to be huge for the Heat. It will be an uphill battle for Z to keep up with the Big 3 up and down the court, but in half court sets, he will fit right in.

Grade: A (if Z can be efficient on offense)

Mike Miller to the Heat: I wrote in my post about the Lebron move that Mike Miller was a definite target. He got some run with the USA team before the Beijing Olympics in 2008. Miller is a solid shooter who has struggled with consistency the last few seasons in the bottom cellar of the NBA. Miller is clearly a player who needs to be motivated. We saw his averages drop significantly in 08-09 with the T'wolves. Miller's career averages were 13.7ppg, but went down to 10.9 ppg last season with the Wolves and Wizards. He shot 48% from 3-pt range last season which is 8% higher than his career average, and he also improved his rebounding from 5.1 to 6.2 per game. This shows that he is capable of improving his produ

ctivity when he makes a commitment to it. Stats aside, Miller is a huge asset for the Heat. He will be the beneficiary countless double teams and drive and dish penetration from the Big 3. Miller's defensive capacity leaves a lot to be desired, but if he gets beat, he will have a lot of help. His job in Miami will be simple: make shots to keep the defense honest. Overall, a great pickup for the Heat. Miller probably took a bit of a paycut to be the Heat, but after conversations with the Lakers, it was clear that Miller wanted to have a chance to win.

Grade: A-

Drew Gooden to the Bucks: This is a good move for the Bucks. They get another big man who can defend the low post to team up alongside Andrew Bogut (assuming he is fully healed). I don't want to delve too deep into stats with Gooden because his presence is more what he brings to the Bucks. He is going to be a defensive presence to block the lane as much as possible. If he can grab 10 rebounds per game and block 1.5 shots per game, the Bucks will have gotten their value from him.

Grade: B

Corey Maggette to the Bucks: Solid move for the Bucks also. An athletic player who gets to the free throw line. He is a pure scorer and will be a great complement to Brandon Jennings' own

athleticism and ability to get to the basket. It

gives the Bucks a great threat to use Delfino or Maggette at SF. One of those players could move to SG also. It is an incredible move for the Bucks to upgrade their lineup. Their starting lineup now has an incredible combination of threats. If Michael Redd comes back healthy for the start of the season, they will have even more depth. The starting lineup depth could be Brandon Jennings, John Salmons/Michael Redd, Carlos Delfino/Corey Maggette, Ersan Ilyasova/Drew Gooden (If Larry Sanders can develop he will also have a spot too), and Andrew Bogut. Not bad. Maggette adds another level of offense for them. A solid player who puts up points quickly. I'd like to see more commitment by Maggette on defense. He had one of the best seasons of his career last year in terms of ppg and FG%, and if he can play solid defense, he's going to be a threat. Playing under Scott Skiles will mean that defense is a requirement, not an option.

Grade: B+

Brad Miller to Rockets: Horrible move for the Rockets. They are worried about Yao's injury, but they get a guy who is just as injury prone. Miller is clearly on the decline in his career. He does stretch the floor with his ability to shoot from long range, but I'm not convinced that he can be an impact player anymore. They gave him MLE type money, but he hasn't proven that he can be a game changer. The main concern here seems to be that Brad Miller will slow down their transition game. Aaron Brooks is an extremely promising young player who is one of the fastest guards in the league. Brooks pushes the ball hard, and it helps speed the game up for the Rockets. This was the best offense for the Rockets when Yao was not in the lineup. Throwing Brad Miller into the mix won't give the Rockets the opportunity to get in transition as fast. Kevin Martin and Aaron Brooks will be running the show in the backcourt for the Rockets and they are almost sure to benefit from having a big man in the post, but will also be hindered by it. Rick Adelman knows what Brad Miller can do, but I'm afraid that his ability from the Sacramento days has waned.

Grade: C-

David Lee to Warriors: Moving in the right direction for the Warriors. A young dynamic player like Stephen Curry paired with a double-double machine is going to go well for the Warriors. Lee proved that he can't be the #1 option on a team in New York. It will be up to the Warriors to get another impact player to put alongside Curry and Lee before anyone starts talking playoffs for this team. They Warriors gave up a lot of their young core, but none of those players were irreplaceable. Ekpe Udoh is going to be a work in progress for this season, and won't be a credible threat until he can prove that he can hold his own down in the post. For now, it will be just David Lee. With some of the recent moves Golden State has made, this has to rank up with one of the best in a while. A big bounce back from draft night.

Grade: B- (overall performance in the offseason thus far)

-Izzy

Off season to-do list: Knicks

Nowadays there are few people outside of Spike Lee with the courage to admit they are Knicks fans. Forrest, happens to be one of the true New York faithful left that I know. He is on top of all things Knicks and what I would consider a pretty good NBA historian. He has interesting thoughts about the Knicks, and the NBA (but we won't get into those), anytime you talk to him about it, including ideas such as keeping Isaiah Thomas in a front office position because he is one of the best talent evaluators in the NBA, Nate Robinson as one of the most athletic players in the league, and Danilo Gallinari being a good draft pick. While he doesn't defend those positions in this piece, he does give us a pretty good look into the present situation for the Knicks and the optimistic future outlook for the team.

Let’s be honest. Despite the recent hiring of proven winners in the coaching spot as well as in the front office, this is a franchise in shambles. The Knicks have not been a playoff team since 2001, and no, no one should count the 2003-2004 team which had a losing record and was swept out of the playoffs by the Nets in humiliating fashion as a “playoff team”. As if the on-court troubles weren’t enough, recent estimates say that the Knicks lost over 187 million dollars under Isaiah Thomas, which would easily have been enough money to lock up Allan Houston and Antonio McDeyess through 2012 with max deals.

Any discussion of what the Knicks need to do to get back to being an elite team has to begin with the summer of 2010. Lebron James has indicated that he might be leaning towards signing with the Brooklyn Nets instead of the Knicks. Regardless, this class could potentially include Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Rip Hamilton, Amare Stoudemire, Manu Ginobili, and Carlos Boozer. One can already see that the Knicks are looking forward to that summer, signing Chris Duhon to a two year deal so he could come off the books in 2010 where the Magic were offering him three.

So, keeping that in mind, let’s go through the Knicks roster and determine each player’s value as a combination of their talent, fit in D’Antoni’s system, and their contract.

Stephon Marbury’s career is done. We already knew from his stints with Minnesota, New Jersey, and Phoenix that he was not the type of player who was able to carry his team to victories on a consistent basis, but at least he was putting up All-Star caliber numbers. His numbers have declined each year with the Knicks to the point where he is now averaging just 13 points and 5 assists per game. Respectable numbers, but not good enough considering that during the 2008-2009 season he will be the second highest paid player in the league. Throw in his off the court antics, and Marbury’s impact on the team is solidly negative. However, it is essential that the Knicks do not trade Stephon. They will probably receive plenty of enticing offers given the $21 million that his contract will bring off a team’s payroll after next season, but the biggest problem with recent Knick’s personnel moves has been trading away such expiring contracts and tying themselves up with overpaid, mediocre players.

Another failed experiment is Eddy Curry. Curry refuses to get in shape, attempt to play defense, or pull down rebounds (Even in his best season, he was a 7 footer crashing the boards at a pathetic 1 rebound per 5 minutes rate). He can’t shoot, dribble, or run the break, so D’Antoni can’t have much use for him. The Knicks should just hope that they can somehow get rid of Curry for a player of less value but with a better contract. Another intriguing option might be to just cut him. Curry is terrible, but it is almost guaranteed that another team will at least sign him to the veteran minimum, meaning that the Knicks could reduce the amount that his contract is counting against the cap.

Zach Randolph is not such a clear-cut case. Although he is due to make much more than he is worth ($14.5 million next season, over 17 million in 2010-2011), he is obviously an extremely talented player. I don’t care how bad the team was, anyone who can average 23 and 10 in the Western Conference can play. There are some character and work ethic issues, but there are plenty of instances of players who ended up being successful after the media and their fan bases had written them off as selfish head cases that would never really “get it” (see Stephen Jackson and Paul Pierce). Randolph is also a mobile big man with handle who has decent outside range, which could work out well if D’Antoni does in fact try to implement his run and gun offense with the Knicks. While Quentin Richardson is another player who has underachieved in a Knick uniform, he has had success under D’Antoni before. So it might be wise, knowing that he is a player who thrives in a fast paced offense, to withhold judgment on Q until his contract, which is $10 million coming off the books in 2010, expires.

Jamal Crawford is another player who, given his shooting prowess and his excellent ability to handle the ball (only 2.4 turnovers in 40 minutes per game last season, and a devastating crossover), could shine for D’Antoni. He is also the only player on the Knicks not in his rookie contract that one could make the case is making about the amount of money he deserves. Jamal has been one of the few bright spots on this team for the last few years.

Malik Rose is an expiring contract that could potentially be used as a trade chip at some point this season. Jerome James and Jared Jeffries are both bad players who the Knicks are just going to have to let ride the bench until their contracts are up.

The rest of this roster is made up of pretty talented young players who could potentially make a great set of role players when the Knicks start contending for the playoffs. Nate Robinson, David Lee, and Renaldo Balkman have all proven that they can play at a high level off the bench. Wilson Chandler and Mardy Collins could fall into this category if given a few more opportunities over the next couple of years.

Now no one is suggesting the Knicks just stand pat and do nothing until Lebron comes along and saves the franchise. There are a few holes that could be filled to at least make this team competitive in the Eastern conference this coming year.

There are rumors that Monta Ellis has expressed interest in playing for the Knicks, and that the Warriors are open to losing Ellis in a sign and trade. Monta is one of the most talented young guards in the NBA. He had flashes this season where commentators were describing him as the next Dwyane Wade, which means that if you listen to John Hollinger, the Knicks could bank on getting the greatest finals performance in the history of the league if they could get their hands on Ellis. Honestly, if the Knicks could acquire Ellis one could make the argument that they could get out of Lebron mode and try to build around Ellis, Crawford, and Randolph. But this just seems like a fantasy. The Knicks simply could not give the Warriors comparable value for Ellis. On top of this, after losing Baron Davis, I can’t see Chris Mullin dealing Ellis unless he is getting truly amazing value for him. The only things the Knicks have to offer are a couple of young players and Marbury and Rose’s expiring contracts, which would put the Warriors solidly into rebuilding mode, a place they don’t want to be. Moreover, the Knicks just signed Chris Duhon, so it seems they might have already made their decision on a point guard for this upcoming year.

The Knicks need a true center, badly. One option would be trying to pry Nenad Krstic from the Nets. The Nets have given Krstic a qualifying offer, which means they have the right to match any contract another team offers him. This is irrelevant to the Knicks, because after signing Chris Duhon they could not offer Krstic a deal the Nets would not match anyway. However, Krstic is reportedly looking to force a sign and trade. The Knicks could potentially try to make a run at Krstic, as long as they don’t give up the expiring contracts of Marbury or Rose.

Other needs for the Knicks include shooters, for D’Antoni’s system, and defense, for a team that was 29^th in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions. Good shooters that are available this offseason include Ben Gordon, Brent Barry, Juan Dixon, DerMarr Johnson, and Bostjan Nachbar. Good defenders include Mickael Peitrus, Carl Landry, Matt Barnes, and Devean George. The problem with all these players is that the Knicks just don’t have the cap room after the Duhon signing to make a reasonable offer and would have to negotiate sign and trades which would most likely hamper them financially in the long term.

Thomas left the Knicks in a state where they are not going to be serious contenders even for home court advantage in the playoffs for the next couple of years. The best course for this team is to be patient, let their young talent develop, and not reinforce the same problems they have had over the last decade by mortgaging their future just on the hopes that they can grab a seventh or eight seed in the East.

Picture Sources: thegarden.com (first), theonion.com (second), nydailynews.com (third), sportsillustrated.cnn.com (fourth), nydailynews.com (fifth), rotorob.com (sixth), nba.com (seventh), hoopsvibe.com (eighth)

intro by Izzy