We're 5 days into the free agency period and we've already seen 4 major players resign with their home teams. Dirk Nowitzki, Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, and Paul Pierce are off the market with huge contracts and huge aspirations. I'm wondering how the liberal spending of these teams will impact their franchise. I'm skeptical about all of these signings except for 1.
It is worth noting that the first two on this list were purely business decisions because the Hawks and Mavs weren't far enough under the cap to lure a big name free agent. So, rather than rebuild and start from scratch, they decided to keep what they had and hope for the best.
Joe Johnson: Johnson was clearly a benefactor of all of the hoopla about this summer's free agency class. As Johnson's name kept coming up as one of the main targets on teams' free agent wish list, it was almost certain that he was going to cash in on all the positive publicity. He did, and the Hawks find themselves right where they left off after losing to the Magic in historic fashion in the second round of the 2010 playoffs. Johnson's deal is worth $119 million over 6 years.
Don't get me wrong. Johnson is a great player. With averages of 21.9ppg, 4.9 assts, and a steal, he is an upper echelon player in the league, however, these types of averages don't seem to work for the Hawks. Their young core has yet to make a splash in the playoffs since taking the 2008 Boston Celtics team to 7 games. Simply put, this team isn't good enough. They needed a surefire player who could lead them. Joe Johnson hasn't been outspoken enough to bring his team to the next level. He doesn't posess the killer instinct that #1 options on championship calibur teams have. I'm also worried about Johnson's inconsistency. There are games where he looks unstoppable, and games where he is more than forgettable. Undoubtedly, he is a #2 option on an elite team, which explains why the Knicks and Bulls went after Johnson first so that they could include him in their sales pitch to Lebron, Bosh, and Wade.
The bright side for the Hawks is if they can reintegrate Josh Childress after his stint in Greece and new coach Larry Drew can help develop Johnson as a leader, they might be able to compete for a top spot in the East. If only they could have had Chris Paul instead of Marvin Williams...this would have been so much easier.
Dirk Nowitzki: Clearly loyalty played a huge factor in this decision. Mark Cuban believed in Dirk when the entire city of Dallas was crushing the team for passing up on Paul Pierce. They lived through the ups and downs together and Cuban has never backed down from defending Dirk. There was no other choice for Dirk except to go back if Dallas extended the offer. They did, and the Mavs will be putting on a very similar act that we have seen many times before. Again, this team is amazing on paper. They got their versatile swingman in Shawn Marion, one of the best point guards in NBA history with Jason Kidd, an annual contender for 6th man of the year in Jason Terry, and a constant influx of new raw talent coming in every year. Their only hole right now is filling the center spot due to the uncertainty with Brendan Haywood's free agency and the almost certain waiving of Dampier.
Dirk has shown that he is an elite player in the league, however, he has not shown that he can take his team over the top. He has a solid supporting cast and a willing owner who is ready to spend whatever it takes to win, but Nowitzki hasn't produced in big moments. After their famous flameout in the first round in the 2007 playoffs, to Golden State, a series that I still defend to this day as the biggest upset in sports history, the Mavs have never quite regained their footing. They lost this year again in the first round to the Spurs which fuels the fire against Dirk. In the end, the Mavs figured that there is too much history with Dirk and this franchise to give up on him now. If somehow the Mavs won the title with Dirk as the lead man, it would mean so much more than to bring in a new franchise player and start over. As it stands now, the team is virtually the same team that has left the floor before June every year since 2006, and has never come up with the trophy in hand. I don't see that changing, and neither do you.
Rudy Gay: By far the worst signing of the free agency period. I'm actually still having convulsions from time to time thinking about this. Lets put this in perspective, here we have a guy who has never brought his team to the playoffs, never been an All-Star, and never been a leader and is getting paid $80 million over 5 years. Not to mention that Gay isn't even definitively the best player on the Grizzlies. Granted, there are a ton of overpaid players in the league who aren't even worth close to what they get paid, but that is a reason for the Grizzlies to take a step back and learn from this mistakes.
If you look at it from the Grizzlies' perspective, they are just happy that they retained Gay. They weren't going to land any big name free agent so they just had a pile of money lying around and decided to spend it where they knew they were going to get some value. Gay brings great energy to the floor, he is a top tier athlete and a proven scorer. Definitely someone you want to have on your team, but he is commonly referred to as a "poor man's Danny Granger", and not your top 30 players to give the ball to in the last 1:30 of a close game. In the overall landscape of the league, this signing is pretty meaningless, but sometimes it just makes you wonder why you couldn't have been a standout player at a major school and land on a small market team with a ton of money in a year before the Collective Bargaining Agreement would be renegotiated. Damn.
Paul Pierce: Of course, this is the best signing so far. The Celtics believe that they were one Kendrick Perkins injury away from a Game 7 victory over the Lakers. Why would you mess with something like that? Danny Ainge had a no-brainer here. Pierce is their clutch player who gets to the foul line, has a versatile offensive game, and a solid defensive game. He has been the face of the franchise since he was drafted in 1996, and has been part of the rebuilding process through the late 90s until he won the Finals MVP in 2008. The Celtics are clearly contenders for the 2011 NBA title as long as they retain Ray Allen which is expected to happen. Resigning Pierce was just a formality. He is the one free agent who has proven he can win and deserves a raise from the team that has helped define his legacy. No arguments here. Just have to see if the Celtics can cash in this time. Most likely, this is the Celtics' last shot at it with this crew.
We've only just hit the surface of this free agency period. There is a lot more to come, and we're all hoping to be surprised.
-Izzy
7/5/10
Money Doesn't Buy Championships
12/5/08
Top 5 overachieving players and the Top 5 underacheiving players
Every NBA season brings us a new list of players who have a breakout season. With these breakout seasons also come players who don't live up to expectations. This is part 1 of 2 of the Top 5 overachieving players and the Top 5 underachieving players. Here is my list for the Top 5 overachievers.
1. Devin Harris: He might not be the best player to put at the top of this list just because New Jersey had high expectations of him. When the Jason Kidd trade went down that sent Harris to New Jersey, Harris was labeled by that vague term, 'prospect'. Usually players labeled by that term take a few years to develop, if ever. We all know that Harris was a college standout at Wisconsin and he won Big 10 player of the year honors, but his start in the NBA was a little rough. The expectation from Harris was always absurdly high being the 5th pick in the draft. His first season in 04-05 he averaged 5.7 ppg and 2.2 assists. He increased that average every year up until midway through the 07-08 season to 14.4 pts and 5.3 assists when he got traded. The second half of that season playing for the Nets, he saw a 1 point increase in his point total to 15.4 and increased his assists to 6.5.
This season, Harris is averaging an astonishing 24.8 points and 6.1 assists and is the 6th leading scorer in the league right now, and is shooting a solid 48% from the field. That is about an 11 ppg jump from his average in the 07-08 season. His play has elevated his team all around him, and the Nets are enjoying a 9-8 record and 2nd in the Atlantic division, only behind Boston, and 4th place in the Eastern Conference. I don't think anyone had New Jersey higher than 7th place this season, and that was even a stretch. They have been the surprise team, and it is all due to Devin Harris. We'll see if they can keep this up.
2. Danny Granger: Another player who broke onto the scene last season. Granger probably isn't known outside of Indiana and to the casual basketball fan. He was not highly regarded out of college because he played in a small conference for the up and down New Mexico program. Granger is the 7th leading scorer in the league who is also hitting 2.8 3's a game. He is a combo player who can play virtually anywhere on the floor, and has such a wide range of skills, he is a matchup nightmare for other teams. Granger's play has led the Pacers over the wins over the Lakers and the Celtics this season. The Pacers have been playing up to their competition this year, and have shown they can win. I expect that Granger will keep this level of play up for the rest of the season, but I don't expect the Pacers to do much more than they have been doing. I expect them not to make the playoffs and finish last in the Central Division. They do have great pieces in Granger, Daniels, and if Dunleavy can come back healthy, Larry Bird might have a strong squad up there.
OJ Mayo: He might be playing on one of the worst teams in the league (4-14), but Mayo is playing out of his mind. He has shown an incredibly maturity coming into the NBA and putting him alongside Rudy Gay has only helped him. The scary thing about Mayo is that he is only a rookie, and will only get better. From what I've heard, this guy is a work horse. He is a gym rat, and obsessed with his game. I've heard scouts say he has the 'it' factor that MJ, Kobe, and Lebron posess. Marc Gasol is still a little raw at this point, but when Marc Gasol gets better, we could be looking at a very respectable team with Gasol, Gay, and Mayo. Mayo has averaged 21.3ppg this season, 13th best in the league, and only .2 away from #12 Dwight Howard. The reason Mayo makes this list is due to the difficulty guards have adjusting to the NBA game. He gets a steal or two a game and dishes out a few assists every game and his one or two 3's every game. He can get to the basket, create his own shot, pass, and is a superior athlete. He has shown maturity in the game ahead of his years. We could be looking at the rise of one of the best guards in the league.
Nene: His emotional comeback from winning his battle with cancer might have inspired his play this year. He is a huge part of the Nuggets success and a clear third option for the team. Nene is averaging 15 pts, 7.3 rebs and 1.6 blocks, all of those are his best career averages. Oh yeah, he also has the highest field goal percentage in the league shooting a staggering 63.2%. When people talk about the elite Centers in the league, people seldom mention Nene. He has come onto the scene this year, and this is a pleasant surprise for George Karl because this could help the Nuggets get past the first round, and be exactly what they need to get further in the playoffs. The Nuggets are looking like a more mature team overall this year, and that is due, in part, to Nene's play.
Ramon Sessions: I would expect that hardcore NBA fans have been following Sessions for a while. For those of you who don't know, he is a D-League call-up, and he has played sensational for the Bucks. He played about 17 games last season for the Bucks, and averaged a little over 11 assists per game in that time. He is going to stick around in the big leagues for a while. He is averaging 14.9 pts and 6 assists this season. He is coming up huge for the Bucks, and they have to like their investment. Sessions is also a great value for them because he is a solid backup for Luke Ridnour, I use the term 'backup' loosely here because he plays 32.9 minutes a game, and started when Ridnour was out. He is also great value for the Bucks in terms of salary. He is the lowest paid player on the Bucks at $722,517, and is the 3rd highest scorer on the team, and plays more minutes than the $70 million dollar Center, Andrew Bogut. He is worth much more than he gets paid, and the Bucks better use him to his full extent before he becomes a free agent because there will not be a shortage of potential teams looking to invest in Sessions.
Top 5 underachievers soon to come...
Izzy