Stephon Marbury to Celtics Analysis

With the help of my friend Ben Fish, I was able to put together this post. Fish is a devout Celtics fan, and was able to give me a taste of what the Celtic faithful think about the Marbury acquisition.

Stephon Marbury is expected to clear waivers on Friday morning and is largely expected to join the Celtics. Marbury and the Knicks reached a buyout agreement earlier this week. Marbury was set to earn $21.9 million this season (the 2nd highest in the NBA). The specifics of the buyout were not made public, but it is largely agreed upon that Marbury lost only about $1.5-$2 million dollars in the deal. Due to Marbury's veteran status, he is set to earn a minimum of $1.5 million on a prorated contract. Marbury's projected loss from the buyout+ his Celtics contract are about $200,000-$500,000. Pocket money,comparatively. The salary caps of both teams go pretty much unaffected. The Knicks sitll own the highest payroll in the league with about $96 million after the Marbury buyout. The Celtics currently have a $78 million payroll and with the acquisition of Marbury, they will, in total, add $3million to that number, which includes the luxury tax penalty.

Boston benefits from the addition of Marbury by adding depth an already depleted bench, and more importantly, to the point guard position. Marbury will provide much needed ball-handling skills to a team that depends on Rajon Rondo to run the point. It will also allow for Eddie House to move to his normal, more natural position at the 2, as he is certainly not a ball-handler. Eddie House is a pure spot-up shooter. Moving him out of his comfort zone was the only choice Doc Rivers had due to the lack of options in the back. The extra playing time for Rondo only helped his game out. We have seen flashes of what Rondo can be, and most likely, will be in the years to come. Marbury hasn't played in an NBA game since January 11, 2008. We can expect that Marbury will be focused and ready to contribute to the Celtics playoff run. Marbury also has an incentive to contribute due to him not having a contract next year. His free agent status at the end of this year will basically mean that he is auditioning for NBA teams to sign him this offseason. Conventional wisdom has always told us nothing produces statistics from a player like a contract year. The NBA will get a very brief, and maybe skewed view of Marbury's ability to play. Rounding off the end of the season isn't going to convince a lot of teams that he still has high calibur productive capability, but I can see teams taking a chance on him for a low amount of money just based on what he has done in the past.

Lets take a look at what Marbury can bring to the Celtics. I have written about how Marbury could be potentially a locker room divider. Garnett has publicly stated that it wouldn't be a problem, as well as other Celtics. Winning will solve all of those problems. I don't think that Marbury will cause any sort of distraction, if for anything, because of his expiring contract. Marbury averaged 19.8ppg and 7.8 assts playing along side Garnett on the T'Wolves. However, don't try to pick up Marbury in your fantasy league just yet. Also, don't expect Marbury to come anywhere close to those numbers just because he is alongside KG again (I don't think any of you did). In fact, expect Marbury to average under 8ppg and about 5 assts with a couple of boards and a steal or two. I expect Marbury to avg about 15-17 minutes a game. From my memory of Marbury, which is fading by now, he is a dynamic player. I don't think that he was putting much effort in during his days in New York. That is one of the main reasons I don't want to cite his statistics from his New York days. I don't think those are indicative of what he brings to the table, and I don't think those are a good baseline comparison to what will go down for him in Boston. Marbury is a scoring point guard. He can create shots for himself, but that isn't what Boston wants him to be. Marbury needs to be a distributor. He needs to give Rondo some rest, and be able to maintain the same level of offensive production as if Rondo was out on the floor. Marbury will be asked to put the ball in the post, and hit shots. He will occassionaly get his number called on a play, and he will have to drive the lane and make shots. Simple as that. If Marbury starts throwing up 30 foot 3pters like he did in New York under Isiah Thomas, Marbury is out. The offensive focus is not on Marbury, and he knows that. He has to play within Doc's system and know that he is a role player. Marbury is extraordinarily quick with the ball, and his size has always been his selling point. He can create his shot by using his size. He can separate himself from defenders as well as drive the lane. His body type is very similar to Jason Kidd. Of course, their games are drastically different, but how many times have we seen Kidd use his size to grab a board or throw up a tough shot in the lane? Marbury is the same type of player. Marbury is incredibly good at attacking the spaces in defense. When defenses cheat too far, Marbury picks up on that and attacks the holes on the defense to create a lane for himself and get to the basket. His size gives him a huge advantage over a lot of NBA point guards, especially in the East. Marbury will be the best backup point guard in the NBA, and that is a valuable asset for the Celtics. His combination of skill and size will never give the other team a break. When the opposing team has to sit its starter, Marbury will be there playing with the ability of a starter.

All of this seems like a dream come true for the Celtics. Don't get too excited. The Celtics have built their team around defense. Marbury is notorious for his lack of defensive effort. He has played this way since his days at Georgia Tech so we can't attribute it to his lack of motivation in New York. If he is motivated, he can be a great on the ball defender. Watch Marbury on defense if you get a chance. He will get into a low defensive stance when he is trying, but straighten his back when he is not trying. He also likes to gamble on passes at the top of the key. Every time I have watched Marbury, he makes up for his lack of defense by gambling on a steal. The one kind of positive is that he keeps ball out of the lane by forcing the defender to the weak side, but when the ball gets swung he shows a low awareness of where the ball is and tends to get beat back door anyway. Those are just some of the highlights of Marbury's defense. I'm sure you all will be able to recall more specific details of Marbury's lack of defense, and also see more of his deficiency on the defensive end when he starts playing. If you think I am just making this stuff up, watch him or go read a scouting report. Plain observation over the course of 2 or 3 games will most likely reveal all of the things I just mentioned in this post.

Overall, I think the move will help the Celtics. I don't think that any other team in the league is as deep as the Celtics at the point guard position at this point. The closest team to matching their depth at the 1 spot is either San Antonio or Denver. No team in the East is even close. The Celtics won't even have to think about Denver, and San Antonio has a chance at the Finals, but the Celtics won't need to look at their footage before the 2nd week of May. This is a low risk in terms of finances and basketball.

Izzy

Contributions by Ben Fish

The Marbury Mess

Happy New Year everyone. I apologize for not posting with more frequency. One of my New Years Resolutions is to post 3-4 times a week. Holiday season is hectic as we all know. I wrote an article a few weeks ago about waiving Marbury. I still stand by my original opinion of Marbury doing the right thing. This is the Knicks' problem. They created this. If any of you were in this position, most of us would act the same. It is pretty tough to be guaranteed $21 million dollars this year and forgive your boss by accepting $5 million dollars and walking away. Situations like these feed into why some people do not like professional sports. I can sympathize with that. If it were about the game, Marbury would want to be playing. We have to remind ourselves again and again that this is a business. Just like any other market, each party is trying to do the best for his or her respective party. With all this said, this brings us to our most recent Marbury drama.

Marbury has been rumored to be interested in signing with the Celtics. It would be good for every party only if the right things came into play. If Marbury were paid his entire salary by the Knicks for this year and the Celtics just had to dish out the minimum for Marbury, the Knicks would cut ties with the player that has been haunting their surprising season, the Celtics would have the backup pg to Rondo, and Marbury would be in a better situation overall. I would say that New York fans would hate him for going to Boston, but at this point, Marbury going anywhere would make Knicks fans happy. The risk for Boston would be how Marbury can come back and perform. There is no telling how Marbury will play after all the time off. Another consideration would be the reuniting of KG and Marbury. KG claims that he is ok with Marbury coming to Boston. We all know that the relationship between KG and Marbury from their days in Minny was questionable, and reuniting both of them could be potentially harmful to team chemistry. If there were tension between KG and Marbury, locker room relationships may be damaged. A KG/Marbury division in the locker room would be something the Celtics should stay far away from.

For this move to work, Marbury would have to be willing to take a back seat to the Big 3. Marbury should realize this is not Georgia Tech, not the mid 90's T-wolves, not the mid-90's KG, and most importantly, not his team. Marbury will have to put his ego away and take his spot behind a 22 year old Rajon Rondo. It will be a tough transition, but if the numbers work out right, there might be some potential in this move. If I'm Danny Ainge, I don't do this deal. There are to many question marks in this move, and he needs to tread these waters carefully. A Marbury signing could be a very bad PR move. Unless there was a lot to gain from the Celtics, they should keep the group they have. The potential for damage to the Celtics can come from more ways than just the salary cap.

Izzy

Waive Marbury!

Now that Obama is president we can get back to talking about basketball.

The Knicks have once again stated that they have no intention to waive or trade Stephon Marbury. I would like to know why. Here is a guy who is tied with Allen Iverson with the second highest salary in the NBA at $21,937,500. Here is a guy who is sitting on the sideline in street clothes with coach Mike D'Antoni having no intentions of changing that any time soon. Here is a guy who averaged 13.9ppg and 4.7 assts when he suited up last year.

Why is Marbury still on the roster? Why won't Dolan admit Isaiah Thomas' mistake and concede that the best way to go with all of this is to part ways. Every NBA fan, and even sports fan, knows that Stephon Marbury is the worst contract in sports. There is a reason for that. HE IS NOT PLAYING. Even when he was, he wasn't producing anywhere near his salary. The Knicks made a similar mistake with Alan Houston, but didn't learn. The funny thing about this whole thing is that the Knicks are the one franchise who laughs at the luxury tax. They are a franchise that will exceed the salary cap every year. They are due to pay $80 million in salary tax this year, and won't even think twice about it. Why do they care about holding onto Marbury? If they waive him, they have to incur his whole salary, but as I mentioned before, they don't care. It has become a child's game now. The Knicks are saying, "If you don't play for us, you don't play for anyone." Marbury is sitting on the sideline laughing and collecting his enormous paycheck.

Marbury won't accept a buyout of his contract. That is obvious. Would you? If you were the 2nd highest paid person in your profession, would you take significantly less so you could go work for another company for significantly less money? You can't blame Marbury. The only people you can blame are the Knick's front office officials. As fans, we just want to see players play. He is clearly good enough to be on a roster. With that said, at this point, as fans, we just need this whole thing to be cleared up. Fast.

Izzy

Tim Duncan made his vote public. If you are curious, here is who he voted for.

Off season to-do list: Knicks

Nowadays there are few people outside of Spike Lee with the courage to admit they are Knicks fans. Forrest, happens to be one of the true New York faithful left that I know. He is on top of all things Knicks and what I would consider a pretty good NBA historian. He has interesting thoughts about the Knicks, and the NBA (but we won't get into those), anytime you talk to him about it, including ideas such as keeping Isaiah Thomas in a front office position because he is one of the best talent evaluators in the NBA, Nate Robinson as one of the most athletic players in the league, and Danilo Gallinari being a good draft pick. While he doesn't defend those positions in this piece, he does give us a pretty good look into the present situation for the Knicks and the optimistic future outlook for the team.

Let’s be honest. Despite the recent hiring of proven winners in the coaching spot as well as in the front office, this is a franchise in shambles. The Knicks have not been a playoff team since 2001, and no, no one should count the 2003-2004 team which had a losing record and was swept out of the playoffs by the Nets in humiliating fashion as a “playoff team”. As if the on-court troubles weren’t enough, recent estimates say that the Knicks lost over 187 million dollars under Isaiah Thomas, which would easily have been enough money to lock up Allan Houston and Antonio McDeyess through 2012 with max deals.

Any discussion of what the Knicks need to do to get back to being an elite team has to begin with the summer of 2010. Lebron James has indicated that he might be leaning towards signing with the Brooklyn Nets instead of the Knicks. Regardless, this class could potentially include Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Rip Hamilton, Amare Stoudemire, Manu Ginobili, and Carlos Boozer. One can already see that the Knicks are looking forward to that summer, signing Chris Duhon to a two year deal so he could come off the books in 2010 where the Magic were offering him three.

So, keeping that in mind, let’s go through the Knicks roster and determine each player’s value as a combination of their talent, fit in D’Antoni’s system, and their contract.

Stephon Marbury’s career is done. We already knew from his stints with Minnesota, New Jersey, and Phoenix that he was not the type of player who was able to carry his team to victories on a consistent basis, but at least he was putting up All-Star caliber numbers. His numbers have declined each year with the Knicks to the point where he is now averaging just 13 points and 5 assists per game. Respectable numbers, but not good enough considering that during the 2008-2009 season he will be the second highest paid player in the league. Throw in his off the court antics, and Marbury’s impact on the team is solidly negative. However, it is essential that the Knicks do not trade Stephon. They will probably receive plenty of enticing offers given the $21 million that his contract will bring off a team’s payroll after next season, but the biggest problem with recent Knick’s personnel moves has been trading away such expiring contracts and tying themselves up with overpaid, mediocre players.

Another failed experiment is Eddy Curry. Curry refuses to get in shape, attempt to play defense, or pull down rebounds (Even in his best season, he was a 7 footer crashing the boards at a pathetic 1 rebound per 5 minutes rate). He can’t shoot, dribble, or run the break, so D’Antoni can’t have much use for him. The Knicks should just hope that they can somehow get rid of Curry for a player of less value but with a better contract. Another intriguing option might be to just cut him. Curry is terrible, but it is almost guaranteed that another team will at least sign him to the veteran minimum, meaning that the Knicks could reduce the amount that his contract is counting against the cap.

Zach Randolph is not such a clear-cut case. Although he is due to make much more than he is worth ($14.5 million next season, over 17 million in 2010-2011), he is obviously an extremely talented player. I don’t care how bad the team was, anyone who can average 23 and 10 in the Western Conference can play. There are some character and work ethic issues, but there are plenty of instances of players who ended up being successful after the media and their fan bases had written them off as selfish head cases that would never really “get it” (see Stephen Jackson and Paul Pierce). Randolph is also a mobile big man with handle who has decent outside range, which could work out well if D’Antoni does in fact try to implement his run and gun offense with the Knicks. While Quentin Richardson is another player who has underachieved in a Knick uniform, he has had success under D’Antoni before. So it might be wise, knowing that he is a player who thrives in a fast paced offense, to withhold judgment on Q until his contract, which is $10 million coming off the books in 2010, expires.

Jamal Crawford is another player who, given his shooting prowess and his excellent ability to handle the ball (only 2.4 turnovers in 40 minutes per game last season, and a devastating crossover), could shine for D’Antoni. He is also the only player on the Knicks not in his rookie contract that one could make the case is making about the amount of money he deserves. Jamal has been one of the few bright spots on this team for the last few years.

Malik Rose is an expiring contract that could potentially be used as a trade chip at some point this season. Jerome James and Jared Jeffries are both bad players who the Knicks are just going to have to let ride the bench until their contracts are up.

The rest of this roster is made up of pretty talented young players who could potentially make a great set of role players when the Knicks start contending for the playoffs. Nate Robinson, David Lee, and Renaldo Balkman have all proven that they can play at a high level off the bench. Wilson Chandler and Mardy Collins could fall into this category if given a few more opportunities over the next couple of years.

Now no one is suggesting the Knicks just stand pat and do nothing until Lebron comes along and saves the franchise. There are a few holes that could be filled to at least make this team competitive in the Eastern conference this coming year.

There are rumors that Monta Ellis has expressed interest in playing for the Knicks, and that the Warriors are open to losing Ellis in a sign and trade. Monta is one of the most talented young guards in the NBA. He had flashes this season where commentators were describing him as the next Dwyane Wade, which means that if you listen to John Hollinger, the Knicks could bank on getting the greatest finals performance in the history of the league if they could get their hands on Ellis. Honestly, if the Knicks could acquire Ellis one could make the argument that they could get out of Lebron mode and try to build around Ellis, Crawford, and Randolph. But this just seems like a fantasy. The Knicks simply could not give the Warriors comparable value for Ellis. On top of this, after losing Baron Davis, I can’t see Chris Mullin dealing Ellis unless he is getting truly amazing value for him. The only things the Knicks have to offer are a couple of young players and Marbury and Rose’s expiring contracts, which would put the Warriors solidly into rebuilding mode, a place they don’t want to be. Moreover, the Knicks just signed Chris Duhon, so it seems they might have already made their decision on a point guard for this upcoming year.

The Knicks need a true center, badly. One option would be trying to pry Nenad Krstic from the Nets. The Nets have given Krstic a qualifying offer, which means they have the right to match any contract another team offers him. This is irrelevant to the Knicks, because after signing Chris Duhon they could not offer Krstic a deal the Nets would not match anyway. However, Krstic is reportedly looking to force a sign and trade. The Knicks could potentially try to make a run at Krstic, as long as they don’t give up the expiring contracts of Marbury or Rose.

Other needs for the Knicks include shooters, for D’Antoni’s system, and defense, for a team that was 29^th in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions. Good shooters that are available this offseason include Ben Gordon, Brent Barry, Juan Dixon, DerMarr Johnson, and Bostjan Nachbar. Good defenders include Mickael Peitrus, Carl Landry, Matt Barnes, and Devean George. The problem with all these players is that the Knicks just don’t have the cap room after the Duhon signing to make a reasonable offer and would have to negotiate sign and trades which would most likely hamper them financially in the long term.

Thomas left the Knicks in a state where they are not going to be serious contenders even for home court advantage in the playoffs for the next couple of years. The best course for this team is to be patient, let their young talent develop, and not reinforce the same problems they have had over the last decade by mortgaging their future just on the hopes that they can grab a seventh or eight seed in the East.

Picture Sources: thegarden.com (first), theonion.com (second), nydailynews.com (third), sportsillustrated.cnn.com (fourth), nydailynews.com (fifth), rotorob.com (sixth), nba.com (seventh), hoopsvibe.com (eighth)

intro by Izzy