Wade and Bosh to Miami: Where the Heat should go from here

Two-thirds of the top 3 free agents in the biggest free agency class in history have agreed to play in Miami. Bosh and Wade will be on South Beach with Lebron's future still in doubt, but with the growing sense that The King will resign with Cleveland. Lets take a look at what the Heat should do from here under a "With Lebron" scenario and a "Without Lebron" scenario. Since the actual salary cap won't be announced until later tonight, we'll just assume that the cap will be set at around $54.4 million. We'll also assume that Wade and Bosh are making the maximum although they've said they would take less money. This will let us examine the money scenario from the worst-case for Miami.

With Lebron: The Heat will have to do some tinkering to get Lebron to Miami, but there are a few teams who would probably be willing to take on Beasley. Those teams would most likely be the Timberwolves, Kings, or Clippers. They would also probably ask for one of Miami's future draft picks which would be a small price to pay for Lebron coming into town. So lets assume that Beasley is out of the picture and traded away. This leaves Lebron signing with the Heat at the max $16.5 million. So, we have Wade, Bosh, Lebron, and Chalmers under contract for the Heat. If the cap is around $54.4 million then the heat have about $485,000 left over to build the rest of the team. They have 3 2nd round picks in Dexter Pittman, Jarvis Varnardo, and Da'Sean Butler. They can sign all of these players for the rookie minimum which would be closer to $450,000 per player.
In addition, they would have to spend their veteran minimum on any veteran looking to contend for a title. A guy like Juwan Howard would make sense or, wait for it...Shaq. I know, the Shaq thing didn't work with King James last year, but bringing Shaq off the bench would be a good way to change the pace for Miami. Shaq is also a very capable defender in the sense that he is a body that makes it imposing for any player to drive the lane or for a bigger body like Dwight Howard. The Heat could also go after Randy Foye in a backup role at PG although he is a true SG. Foye only averaged 1.3 turnovers in the 24 minutes he averaged last season with the Wizards. What about Allen Iverson? Veteran minimum for a guy who can score and play a multitude of different roles. Shaq and Iverson, on top of Bosh and Wade, how many tickets would that sell? Wow. I also hear that Quentin Richardson will probably resign and the Heat will retain Joel Anthony as well. If that happens, they will have filled significant holes with a very respectable roster that will compete for many years to come.
So, lets recap who the Heat could have in the "With Lebron" scenario:
Starters: Chalmers, Wade, James, Bosh, and Brad Miller
Bench: Juwan Howard (or Shaq), Dexter Pittman, Jarvis Varnado, Da'Sean Butler, Randy Foye, Quentin Richardson, and Joel Anthony
This roster gives them an amazing core. With Lebron, Wade, and Bosh, the Heat will have solid role players who can give them decent minutes with some decent contribution. Lets be honest, at the end of the day, if you have Lebron, Wade, and Bosh there isnt much else you need. This is a championship contending team. No question.

Without Lebron: As the roster stands now, Bosh and Wade are the cornerstones with Beasley and Chalmers rounding out the last 2. This leaves the Heat with about $12 million left in cap room. The Heat could go after a true center with this money. The only player that really fits that mold right now is Brendan Haywood. He made $6 million last year, and he didn't have a great post season last year. I'd expect the Heat to give him close to that amount. Lets say the Heat get generous and they know that Haywood is a double-double threat who is a big body and is good for a couple blocks a game as well as being in his prime, and they give him $7 million. That leaves the Heat with $5 million to spend under the cap.

They could split this $5 million among a few other free agents to upgrade their backup point guard spot, shooting guard spot, or power forward. Roger Mason would be a good fit here at $2.5 million. He is a scorer who can give a spark off the bench. In San Antonio he even got to run the point guard spot for a bit of time. I think that Mason would be a refreshing player off the bench when it is time for Dwade to sit or if they wanted to move Wade to the 1 when Chalmers went out, Mason would fit right in at the 2. Another player that would be Will Bynum to compete with Chalmers for the point guard spot. He is a scoring point guard who has shown that he can distribute as well. He would be a nice piece for the Heat.

The Heat will sign the 3 rookies Varnardo, Pittman, and Butler. They will also pursue a couple veteran free agents who will play for the minimum (as explained above), and then hope to re-sign Quentin Richardson and Joel Anthony. It is also worth noting that the Heat don't need a big name point guard because I still think they believe in Chalmers. I think that with Bosh in the low post, Chalmers will be able to distribute the ball a lot more and get more open shots. He should flourish in this new team.

Here is how the team looks under the "Without Lebron" scenario: starters: Chalmers, Wade, Bosh, Beasley and Joel Anthony
Bench: Will Bynum, Roger Mason, Beasley, Varnardo, Pittman, Butler, Quentin Richardson, and Allen Iverson (just for fun) with another veteran minimum.

Neither scenario looks too bad. Both are significant upgrades.

What I'm thankful for

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I do have a lot to be thankful for in my life, but we won't go into that. We, as NBA fans, also have a lot to be thankful for in our basketball lives. Here is what I'm thankful for this NBA season.

The Knicks: Finally, one of the most storied franchises in sports is revived. It has been a tough few years for Knicks fans. As we all know, they have made some big moves in the past few years to compete this year and the next, and to set themselves up for the 2010 free agency period. This has to be encouraging for Knicks fans. Finally, some sense behind the moves of the Knicks front office. Good job Donnie Walsh.

The rookie class: This has been an amazing rookie class. Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, and Michael Beasley are living up to the hype. After that, they have also been pretty solid. Russell Westbrook isn't playing as bad as the Thunder's record would suggest. He has been a steady contributor, and the rookie dubbed as 'most likely to bust' by myself and Greg Johnson, is proving us wrong. Unexpected rookies making an impact right now are DJ Augustin and Jason Thompson. Augustin dropped 25 and 11 assists and 5 rebounds in Jason Richardson's absense. The Kings also have to be happy with Jason Thompson's surprising development by averaging 11.4 pts and 7 rebs. Virtually unknown coming out of Rider, Thompson has potential to be a great player in this league who can be a legitimate 2nd option for a lot of teams, and also to be a very good defender. Golden State also got two great players who were undrafted in DeMarcus Nelson and Anthony Morrow. As a Wake fan, I was obviously bias against Nelson, but he has been a surprise for not even being drafted. I was also bias against the Georgia Tech star, Morrow, but I have always respected his game. Morrow has a very bright future in this league, and the Warriors proved the 'huge upside' phrase that gets thrown around way too much. Rounding out the great rookie class surprises are Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Mario Chalmers. All of which are making big impacts for their teams right now. Also, dont forget the Lopez twins who have been contributing some solid numbers recently.

The closing gap between East and West: For the last few years, the West has dominated the NBA landscape. It is great to finally see the gap closing in the league so we can stop the talk about re-doing the conferences and what not. It makes for great basketball, and it makes it fun to be a fan. It reinforces two levels of fanhood. The first is of your team, and the second, is of your conference. A fan can always stick to the side that "my conference has x,y,z teams" which always make for good NBA debates.

The Boston/LA rivalry: We got enough of this during the Finals, but it seems like we will be able to see this historic rivalry relived. As a Laker fan, I'm thankful for my teams success and I acknowledge that both Celtic and Laker fans are outrageously priviledged. Nonetheless, as a young basketball fan, it is great to be a part of such a historic rivlary revived. Many fans only get to read about the historic rivalries related to their franchises, and even fewer fans get to re-live the rivalry again. We could be on the fringes of that rivalry being re-started if both teams can keep this level of play for the next 5 or 6 years even if different players are apart of the rivalry.

The Donaghy scandal being left behind: When the scandal broke, it was a hit to everyone involved in the NBA, including the fans. It is now safe to say that the fallout from the scandal was less than expected. After the Pedowitz report and fast action from the league office, we have been lucky that it did not affect the sport more than it did. We can now rest and be reassured that it was just an isolated incident. We all know that it could have been much worse than it turned out to be. The basketball nation can now start a new chapter in the sport's history, and putting behind one of the darkest moments in sports history behind us.

Izzy