The 3 Most Compelling Stories Going into the Playoffs

So I'm finally back. Some news before I jump into today's post. I've recently become the domain owner of dishingdimes.com. You can now access the site by simply typing dishingdimes.com into your browser. The webmaster is currently working on a few things, and should have everything up and running by the middle of April. With all of that, my boredom with this years' NCAA Tournament (Wake's ousting killed it for me) has brought me to focus my attention on the final stretch of the NBA season. There are 3 big story lines we need to watch before we hit the third week of April and the first round starts.

1) The 8th seed in both conferences- I'm not saying that there will be a repeat of the 2006 #8 Warriors over #1 Dallas, which I still stand by, is the biggest upset in sports history. I am saying that there are a few ways this could play out. Lets start in the East. I don't see Chicago falling out of the 8th spot right now. I think Charlotte can get there next year, but I don't think they are a consistent enough team to challenge Chicago for that spot. If Chicago hangs onto that last spot, I'm going to give the ROY to Derrick Rose. Lets take it a step further. Detroit has a chance to slip to 8th. Chicago is playing 7 games at home and 3 on the road to close the season. Out of their last 10 games, only Miami, Philly, and Detroit are playoff teams. The Bulls beat Miami without Derrick Rose and the road doesn't turn too sharply as they meet Philly, Detroit, and the rest, which are very winnable games. It is also worth noting that the game against Detroit is at Detroit, and could very well determine the 7th and 8th seeds in the East. If the Bulls can go out winning 8 of 10, they will be in great position. The Pistons lost to the Lakers in the game tonight, they have 11 more games, 1 of those games is against the Cavs, and the only other hurdles will be Philly and the big game against Chicago. Remember to watch the Pistons/Bulls game on April 13th because it will have major playoff implications. So lets think about what this actually means for Chicago and Detroit. An 8th seed means you are probably playing the Cavs, and a 7th seed means you are probably playing the Celtics. If I were the Bulls, I would much rather play against the Celtics than the Cavs. The Bulls have no one who can guard Lebron, but the Pistons can throw Tayshaun Prince on Lebron and contain him as much as any defense can. The Pistons probably don't want to play the Celtics in the first round due to their lack of size. They can't body up against KG, Glen Davis, KendrickPerkins, or Leon Powe very well. It will be a struggle for an undersized Detroit team. In short, it would be in the Pistons' best interest to drop to the 8th seed, but it might just be me. It is picking your poison.

In the West we have an interesting race between, really, #2-9. San Antonio could theoretically fall to the 8th spot at this point. Doubtful, but possible. At this point, anything can happen with those spots. The Suns are desperately trying to make the playoffs, and there is a chance they can pull it off. Dallas doesn't have a favorable schedule in the last 10 games of the season. Dallas plays Cleveland on Sunday, and has games against Miami, Phoenix, Utah, New Orleans twice, and Houston to close the season out. All of those games will have major playoff implications and all of those teams are going to be at full strength trying to finalize their playoff spots. Out of the last 10 games the Suns have, only 4 of them are playoff teams, one of those teams being Dallas. I see this playoff race going all the way until the last game. We may not know what happens, and both teams don't want to rely on the other team losing for playoff position. It will make for very interesting basketball. As for the middle of the field in the West, it is almost impossible to predict what will happen. Virtually every matchup in the West could swing either way from the 2 through 7 matchups. Lets even throw the Lakers in there in the 1 vs 8 matchup. The Lakers have a chance to lose if they don't come out at full strength. Seeding is of the utmost importance at this time of the year, and things are tight in the league right now. It will be interesting to see how the last two spots in the East play out and how the West plays out as a whole.

2) The Boston injuries- This could be the determining factor in the East. The Celtics will most likely get a 2 seed, and Doc Rivers assures us that they don't care what seed they get, "As long as we are healthy, we will lace up against anyone." That statement is true, but is contingent on the first clause. Can they get healthy? They are slowly bringing KG back, and they have a multitude of other injuries. KG has been unproductive as of late, but the Celtics have seemed to be playing relatively well without him at full strength. They lost a tough game to Orlando last night, but you can never underestimate what the Celtics can do with that much talent on one team. We saw the Celtics exploited by the very good Orlando team last night. Dwight Howard punishes them down low. There is virtually no one who can guard Dwight Howard. His style of play will revolutionize young centers with hopes of coming to the NBA. Howard's post presence and athleticism is too much for Boston to deal with if KG is not ready. It is also important to note that Ray Allen has had a few nagging injuries, but we can expect him to be fully healthy for the playoffs. The Celtics have been criticized for not playing with the same fire as they did last season, but a healthy Celtics team is just as dangerous as the championship team we saw last June. If KG is fully healthy, expect the Celtics to be in the Finals, but not without a 7 game series against Cleveland. The question will be whether KG's injuries follow him into the playoffs.

3) The Blazers- Does anyone remember them? They haven't made any headlines since the incident between Ariza and Fernandez. I truly believe that they can beat any team in the West. They have two interchangeable bigmen inside, a great young star, a scoring PF, and solid role players. They have upset written all over them. As of now, they would be playing the Rockets. From the history of the Rockets, an upset by the hands of the Blazers is not outrageous. Pay attention to how they play in this critical point in the season. It will be very telling to how they will perform in the playoffs. They are my sleeper pick for the playoffs.

Izzy

What I'm thankful for

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I do have a lot to be thankful for in my life, but we won't go into that. We, as NBA fans, also have a lot to be thankful for in our basketball lives. Here is what I'm thankful for this NBA season.

The Knicks: Finally, one of the most storied franchises in sports is revived. It has been a tough few years for Knicks fans. As we all know, they have made some big moves in the past few years to compete this year and the next, and to set themselves up for the 2010 free agency period. This has to be encouraging for Knicks fans. Finally, some sense behind the moves of the Knicks front office. Good job Donnie Walsh.

The rookie class: This has been an amazing rookie class. Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, and Michael Beasley are living up to the hype. After that, they have also been pretty solid. Russell Westbrook isn't playing as bad as the Thunder's record would suggest. He has been a steady contributor, and the rookie dubbed as 'most likely to bust' by myself and Greg Johnson, is proving us wrong. Unexpected rookies making an impact right now are DJ Augustin and Jason Thompson. Augustin dropped 25 and 11 assists and 5 rebounds in Jason Richardson's absense. The Kings also have to be happy with Jason Thompson's surprising development by averaging 11.4 pts and 7 rebs. Virtually unknown coming out of Rider, Thompson has potential to be a great player in this league who can be a legitimate 2nd option for a lot of teams, and also to be a very good defender. Golden State also got two great players who were undrafted in DeMarcus Nelson and Anthony Morrow. As a Wake fan, I was obviously bias against Nelson, but he has been a surprise for not even being drafted. I was also bias against the Georgia Tech star, Morrow, but I have always respected his game. Morrow has a very bright future in this league, and the Warriors proved the 'huge upside' phrase that gets thrown around way too much. Rounding out the great rookie class surprises are Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Mario Chalmers. All of which are making big impacts for their teams right now. Also, dont forget the Lopez twins who have been contributing some solid numbers recently.

The closing gap between East and West: For the last few years, the West has dominated the NBA landscape. It is great to finally see the gap closing in the league so we can stop the talk about re-doing the conferences and what not. It makes for great basketball, and it makes it fun to be a fan. It reinforces two levels of fanhood. The first is of your team, and the second, is of your conference. A fan can always stick to the side that "my conference has x,y,z teams" which always make for good NBA debates.

The Boston/LA rivalry: We got enough of this during the Finals, but it seems like we will be able to see this historic rivalry relived. As a Laker fan, I'm thankful for my teams success and I acknowledge that both Celtic and Laker fans are outrageously priviledged. Nonetheless, as a young basketball fan, it is great to be a part of such a historic rivlary revived. Many fans only get to read about the historic rivalries related to their franchises, and even fewer fans get to re-live the rivalry again. We could be on the fringes of that rivalry being re-started if both teams can keep this level of play for the next 5 or 6 years even if different players are apart of the rivalry.

The Donaghy scandal being left behind: When the scandal broke, it was a hit to everyone involved in the NBA, including the fans. It is now safe to say that the fallout from the scandal was less than expected. After the Pedowitz report and fast action from the league office, we have been lucky that it did not affect the sport more than it did. We can now rest and be reassured that it was just an isolated incident. We all know that it could have been much worse than it turned out to be. The basketball nation can now start a new chapter in the sport's history, and putting behind one of the darkest moments in sports history behind us.

Izzy

It's a little too early to...

Call Greg Oden a bust: Hold on everyone. What is all this Sam Bowie and Bill Walton talk? The Blazers are cursed? Stop it. Yes, the guy had to have arthroscopic knee surgery before he played a single NBA game, and he rolled his ankle. Calm down. I'm not saying he isn't injury prone because he clearly is, but to start these comparisons and shoot him down before he has even really got up? That isn't fair. Let him come back healthy, and then we can talk about what he can do. An injury is one of the most frustrating things for a player to go through. When expectations are high, there is almost no doubt that the player won't meet those expectations. If he comes back and drops 20 and 10 a night, people will just ignore the Bowie and Walton comparisons and pretend like they never happened. Those people who lobbied for Kevin Durant back before the 2007 draft will become silent. There is no better remedy for criticism and negativity around a sports team than success. I'm not saying that Oden doesn't bust, and I'm also not saying that he will be the franchise center Kevin Pritchard thought he would be when he drafted him. All I'm saying is we need to reserve judgment, and get a better perspective on his play. If he continues to get injured for the next year or so, then we can talk.

Call Derrick Rose the Rookie of the Year: He has played fantastic. Incredibly underrated jump shot. The prototype NBA point guard. He has the complete package. With about a week and a half into the season he has put up 17.8 ppg, 4.2 assts, 3.6 rebs, a steal a game, and shooting 45% from the field. Incredible numbers for a point guard. There is no doubt that he is the future of the Bulls, but he only has 5 games under his belt. With those ROY-worthy numbers he still has 3 TOs a game and we haven't seen the full potential of other contenders like Beasley, Jason Thompson, Mario Chalmers, and OJ Mayo. Rose has gotten the most press because he is on a big market team on a historic franchise, but we can't forget about the other big name rookies coming into the draft. Mayo is competing with Rose in virtually every category except for assits. Mayo averages 16.8ppg, 1.6 steals a game, and 4 rebs. Mayo just dropped 28 against Sacramento last night, and had 6 3pointers. Didn't hear about it? Makes sense, it was Sacramento and Memphis. Beasley is averaging 17 ppg, 6.5 rebs, and 1 block a game. You can't count the other 2 top 3 picks out of the ROY race. Thompson was a shock in the draft out of Rider. Thompson is an amazing defender and has averaged 13.6 ppg and 6.8 rebs a game. He also does a lot of stuff that won't show up in the box score. Mario Chalmers has also been another shock, and could be a dark horse candidate for ROY. Miami thought they had no point guard, but Chalmers' solid play has earned him the starting job. Chalmers is averaging 8ppg, 6 assts, and 3.8 steals. He had 9 steals last night against Sacramento! The point is, don't assume anything at this point.
Rose had an incredible opportunity to play against the Redeem Team this summer, and tested his NBA talent. He was NBA ready long ago. He is clearly an amazing player, and will be one of the best point guards in the league in a couple of seasons, but we have to give credit to guys like Beasley, Mayo, and Thompson who have also had much bigger seasons than they were projected to have. Don't forget the other rookies who are having big impacts for their team. We'll talk again in two months.

Talk about a Lakers championship: Anyone who knows me, knows that my heart is Purple and Gold. Even the most prideful fan of the Lakers knows that we have to keep composed. The Lakers are 4-0. Not that impressive yet. Some of the Lakers have told confidants that the Lakers are trying to shoot for 70 wins according to ESPN. You have to love to see your team shoot high, but we have to be real here. The West is incredibly strong this year, and the East has closed that gap significantly. The league is filled with talent, and the level of play is higher than it has been in the past few seasons. Shooting for 70 is a great goal, but not going to happen, especially in the West. Furthermore, to talk championship right now? No chance. Laker fans more than anyone know how dangerous it is to talk championship before anything has even happened (As 2004 told us). The Lakers might be considered to be favorites, but if you ask any of the players, they are focused on home court advantage right now. The words 'championship' and 'Lakers' in the same sentence is a taboo subject in LA. For the rest of the basketball world, they may talk about a Lakers championship, but it will not be an easy road by any means.

Say the Spurs not contenders: Sure they started the season 0-3. They had to struggle last night to beat the Wolves in 2OT, and Tony Parker had to drop 55 and 10 assists to make it happen. We have seen this from the Spurs before. They take the regular season off for a bit, but turn it on when they need to. They are an aging team, and like to conserve energy. I'm not saying that is what they are doing right now, because they are undoubtedly playing with a sense of urgency. At this point, the Spurs are trying to stay around .500 until Ginobli comes back, and that is fine. They will still make the playoffs, and they will still make noise in the playoffs just like every other year. We don't count out a veteran team with that much championship experience 4 games into it, and without one of their Big 3.

Izzy

Sports Illustrated put up a full copy of the Pedowitz Report. It is the investigation released by the private investigation the NBA hired to look into the Donaghy scandal. It exonerates former friend of Donaghy, Scott Foster, among other things. It is 133 pages, but worth a browse.