The 3 Most Compelling Stories Going into the Playoffs

So I'm finally back. Some news before I jump into today's post. I've recently become the domain owner of dishingdimes.com. You can now access the site by simply typing dishingdimes.com into your browser. The webmaster is currently working on a few things, and should have everything up and running by the middle of April. With all of that, my boredom with this years' NCAA Tournament (Wake's ousting killed it for me) has brought me to focus my attention on the final stretch of the NBA season. There are 3 big story lines we need to watch before we hit the third week of April and the first round starts.

1) The 8th seed in both conferences- I'm not saying that there will be a repeat of the 2006 #8 Warriors over #1 Dallas, which I still stand by, is the biggest upset in sports history. I am saying that there are a few ways this could play out. Lets start in the East. I don't see Chicago falling out of the 8th spot right now. I think Charlotte can get there next year, but I don't think they are a consistent enough team to challenge Chicago for that spot. If Chicago hangs onto that last spot, I'm going to give the ROY to Derrick Rose. Lets take it a step further. Detroit has a chance to slip to 8th. Chicago is playing 7 games at home and 3 on the road to close the season. Out of their last 10 games, only Miami, Philly, and Detroit are playoff teams. The Bulls beat Miami without Derrick Rose and the road doesn't turn too sharply as they meet Philly, Detroit, and the rest, which are very winnable games. It is also worth noting that the game against Detroit is at Detroit, and could very well determine the 7th and 8th seeds in the East. If the Bulls can go out winning 8 of 10, they will be in great position. The Pistons lost to the Lakers in the game tonight, they have 11 more games, 1 of those games is against the Cavs, and the only other hurdles will be Philly and the big game against Chicago. Remember to watch the Pistons/Bulls game on April 13th because it will have major playoff implications. So lets think about what this actually means for Chicago and Detroit. An 8th seed means you are probably playing the Cavs, and a 7th seed means you are probably playing the Celtics. If I were the Bulls, I would much rather play against the Celtics than the Cavs. The Bulls have no one who can guard Lebron, but the Pistons can throw Tayshaun Prince on Lebron and contain him as much as any defense can. The Pistons probably don't want to play the Celtics in the first round due to their lack of size. They can't body up against KG, Glen Davis, KendrickPerkins, or Leon Powe very well. It will be a struggle for an undersized Detroit team. In short, it would be in the Pistons' best interest to drop to the 8th seed, but it might just be me. It is picking your poison.

In the West we have an interesting race between, really, #2-9. San Antonio could theoretically fall to the 8th spot at this point. Doubtful, but possible. At this point, anything can happen with those spots. The Suns are desperately trying to make the playoffs, and there is a chance they can pull it off. Dallas doesn't have a favorable schedule in the last 10 games of the season. Dallas plays Cleveland on Sunday, and has games against Miami, Phoenix, Utah, New Orleans twice, and Houston to close the season out. All of those games will have major playoff implications and all of those teams are going to be at full strength trying to finalize their playoff spots. Out of the last 10 games the Suns have, only 4 of them are playoff teams, one of those teams being Dallas. I see this playoff race going all the way until the last game. We may not know what happens, and both teams don't want to rely on the other team losing for playoff position. It will make for very interesting basketball. As for the middle of the field in the West, it is almost impossible to predict what will happen. Virtually every matchup in the West could swing either way from the 2 through 7 matchups. Lets even throw the Lakers in there in the 1 vs 8 matchup. The Lakers have a chance to lose if they don't come out at full strength. Seeding is of the utmost importance at this time of the year, and things are tight in the league right now. It will be interesting to see how the last two spots in the East play out and how the West plays out as a whole.

2) The Boston injuries- This could be the determining factor in the East. The Celtics will most likely get a 2 seed, and Doc Rivers assures us that they don't care what seed they get, "As long as we are healthy, we will lace up against anyone." That statement is true, but is contingent on the first clause. Can they get healthy? They are slowly bringing KG back, and they have a multitude of other injuries. KG has been unproductive as of late, but the Celtics have seemed to be playing relatively well without him at full strength. They lost a tough game to Orlando last night, but you can never underestimate what the Celtics can do with that much talent on one team. We saw the Celtics exploited by the very good Orlando team last night. Dwight Howard punishes them down low. There is virtually no one who can guard Dwight Howard. His style of play will revolutionize young centers with hopes of coming to the NBA. Howard's post presence and athleticism is too much for Boston to deal with if KG is not ready. It is also important to note that Ray Allen has had a few nagging injuries, but we can expect him to be fully healthy for the playoffs. The Celtics have been criticized for not playing with the same fire as they did last season, but a healthy Celtics team is just as dangerous as the championship team we saw last June. If KG is fully healthy, expect the Celtics to be in the Finals, but not without a 7 game series against Cleveland. The question will be whether KG's injuries follow him into the playoffs.

3) The Blazers- Does anyone remember them? They haven't made any headlines since the incident between Ariza and Fernandez. I truly believe that they can beat any team in the West. They have two interchangeable bigmen inside, a great young star, a scoring PF, and solid role players. They have upset written all over them. As of now, they would be playing the Rockets. From the history of the Rockets, an upset by the hands of the Blazers is not outrageous. Pay attention to how they play in this critical point in the season. It will be very telling to how they will perform in the playoffs. They are my sleeper pick for the playoffs.

Izzy

Quick Word on the Lakers and the Cavs

Unquestionably the two best teams in the league played last night (Boston and LA). It was all we could have hoped for. but the Lakers managed to pull it out by 1 point. As big of a Lakers fan as I am, the rest of the Lakers fans need to put this win in perspective. The win signifies 2 things. A win in the Lakers 'W' column, and of course, the opposite for the Celtics, and a tie break. The probability of the Lakers and Celtics ending with the same record is slim. If it happens, of course the win means something, but at this point, fans from both teams need to move on. In the Finals, KG doesn't get that 6th foul called, and Pierce makes the free throw to make the game 102-101. So, with that said, lets move on and not dwell on the loss for the Celtics. It was for sure a big game, and the Lakers managed to pull it out, and that is a great testament to the mental toughness of the Lakers, but the Lakers have to follow it up on Sunday against the Cavs.

So lets say the Lakers win on Sunday. HUGE statement. The way the Lakers put a statement on this game is to beat the Cavs by another 17 points. If they Lakers distance themeselves like that against the Cavs, they will show the rest of the league that the Lakers are at the top of their game without Bynum, and more importantly, they can compete with the best teams in the league without Bynum. I was talking to some friends, and I've had some readers contact me about Bynum not being able to return until deep into the playoffs and how he won't be effective. I disagree with that. Bynum can come back and provide a completely different dimension to this team. Yeah, he may not be putting up ridiculous numbers like he was pre-injury, but that extra long body in the paint is going to make Tony Parker, Paul Pierce, and whoever else the Lakers may face in the Playoffs think twice before putting up a floater in the lane. The Lakers are not missing Bynum's offense as much as they are his defense. It is very difficult to replace Bynum's frame and skills.

So the game on Sunday is revenge time for the Cavs. The last time the Lakers played the Cavs there was no rhythmn to the game, and no one ever had a chance to truly take over the game as we would expect from a game headlining Kobe and Lebron. Here is why I think Lebron is coming out gunning in this game. Every analyst and player I have heard comparing Lebron and Kobe's performance at MSG this week has said that Kobe's 61 is more impressive because it was so effortless. Trust me, Lebron has taken note. Lebron has also taken note that Kobe and the Lakers are on an emotional high after beating the Celtics last night. Fully expect that Lebron will do everything in his power to stop Kobe from capping off this amazing road trip for the Lakers. The Cavs are another physical team, just like the Celtics, and it is going to be tough for the Lakers to body up with another physical team for the 2nd game in the row. Be assured that Lebron and Co. have had this date circled on their calendar, and look for them to try and take advantage of tired and beat up Lakers team.

Izzy

In case you haven't had enough Laker/Celtics, here is a look at what could have been. It is a painful pleasure for Lakers fans to read.

The Diversity at the Top of the NBA

There was once a time in the NBA where critics of the Conference system lobbied to split the conferences up and make them into an NFL like division system. The tide has changed in the NBA. 3 out of the 4 best teams in the league are Eastern Conference teams. The worst team in the NBA comes from the West (OKC). For the purposes of this post, we should look at the top teams in the NBA, the Lakers, Celtics, Magic, and Cavs, and examine the diversity each of the 4 teams' diverse style. As a fan of the game, it is a joy to watch the differences in the makeup and style of the 4 teams. I'll tell you what I mean.

The Celtics: At the beginning of the season, everyone was talking about the reigning NBA champions losing single digit games. That is not going to happen, and since their loss the Lakers on Christmas, the Celtics went on a bit of a skid. They have regained their swagger, and look like they are back to their old selves. The Celtics are made up around The Big 3. They have their proven superstar in KG, another clutch superstar in Paul Pierce, and one of the best shooters/scorers in NBA history in Ray Allen. Put those 3 together, and some role players, and you have the reigning NBA champions. No other team in the league can boast 3 household names on one team. They proved that they could get the job done with that mix of players. Then we have Rajon Rondo. Rondo has been in a slump right now, but that is expected of his youth. The talent Rondo has at age 22 is amazing. He is a great complementary player to The Big 3.

When it comes down to it. The Celtics have built around 3 key players. It makes them tough to beat because you can lock down on KG all you want, but then you have the problem of Pierce and Allen to deal with, lock down on Pierce, and then you have the same dilemma. Lock down on Allen, and you know the story. It forces teams to be superior on defense. Defense needs to be the #1 priority when playing the Celtics. Throwing single coverage on any of the players means you need to have some really good perimeter defenders to guard Pierce and Allen, and then you need to have a heck of a versatile defender to defend KG. These are the types of matchup problems the Celtics pose every night for opposing teams. A lot of NBA teams try to center around a superstar. The Celtics did that too, times 3.

The Magic: Coming off a season sweep of the Lakers, the first time that has happened in 10 years, the Magic have proven they can play with the best. The Magic have their superstar in Dwight Howard, and they have their great scoring forwards in Turkoglu and Lewis. Another big boost for the Magic is Jameer Nelson. He is putting up career numbers with 16.9 ppg, 5.4 assts, and 1.26 stls. Nelson has proven that he can lead the team. When the Magic's shooters are off, Nelson takes it upon himself to go for 30+. Coach Stan Van Gundy doesn't even need to tell Nelson what they need from him that night because Nelson has that innate intuition of what he needs to bring to the table. Last night was a great example of Nelson and his leadership. He saw his teammates struggling from the floor. He goes 9/18 and drops 28 pts, 8 assts, and 6 rebs, and only 3 TO's against the Lakers. It was a performance from a player who is ready to win.

The Magic have the $100 million man in Rashard Lewis. He is a deadly shooter who is a rich man's Lamar Odom. He can do everything you want, and he brings you a pretty good level of consistency. Of course, Lewis has his off nights, but the Magic have scorers who will pick up the slack. Hedo Turkoglu is also a great player for the Magic. He has consistently contributed at a high level and is 4th on the team in scoring by only .1 of a margin at 16.8ppg behind Nelson. Hedo has also hit big shots for the Magic this season. With Nelson running the show in the backcourt, an up and coming rookie in Courtney Lee, the gunners, Turkoglu and Lewis, Dwight Howard's job is pretty easy. Wrong. Howard is undoubtedly the reason for the Magic's success. He leads the team in every category except for assists. He leads the league in rebs and blks. The one stat that he is not top 5 in the NBA in, is in FG%. That is something Howard needs to improve for the Magic to maintain this success. He only shot 8 for 18 last night against the Lakers, and finished with 25 pts. Some might not think that is of concern for the Magic. I mean, they won. You can't complain. The Magic have built themselves around Howard. They put 2 of the best shooters in the NBA next to him, and a point guard who has risen to his potential, but Howard needs to shoot north of 50% consistently for the Magic to be successful in the postseason. The Magic have proven they are one of the deadliest shooting teams in the league with their record setting 3point shooting night in Sacramento the other night. What is unique about the Magic is how much they have improved since last season with virtually the same team. You would think that with all the movement in the East, and the Magic staying the same, they would not be a top 3 team in the East anymore. Well, they have stayed the same. The Magic got better on the court while a lot of other teams got better on paper. Building around the best Center in the league is not a bad deal either. They are going to make some noise.

The Lakers: The Lakers are looking to make another Finals appearance. They have been hit with the injury bug lately, but the consistency of Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol is about all the Lakers need to be a threat. Many argue that the Lakers are the deepest team in the Association. I tend to agree with that assessment. When healthy, they can bring Jordan Farmar off the bench behind Fisher. Farmar could start for 75% of teams in this league. Unfortunately for Farmar, he is playing for one of the 25% of teams that can start a point guard ahead of him. The Lakers are unique in the sense that they have players who can play multiple positions. Phil Jackson is known to have Kobe and Sasha Vujacic to play the 1. Pau can play the 4 or 5, Lamar can play pretty much any position except for the 5, Walton can play 2 or 3, and Ariza can play the 3 or 4. The Lakers also have the most size in the NBA. A front court that can play 2 7-footers and and a 6'10 SF is a pretty tough thing to go against. Put 6'7 Kobe in the backcourt, and the Lakers become a matchup nightmare. Phil Jackson has always been an advocate of size, and the current Lakers roster is proving his philosophy correct.

The Lakers have been centered around Kobe for so many years that people have been reluctant to accept the level of talent the Lakers have on their team. Kobe has come into a role where he has become more comfortable trusting his teammates and being a faciltator and a scorer, and most importantly, knowing when to be in both roles. The Lakers are a team that is struggling to find a level of consistency at this point. One can't argue they are being lackadaisical per say, but one could argue they struggle to effectively execute. The most glaring problem for the Lakers is their lack of defense. The Lakers allow 99.5 points per game, but their strong offense has been able to cover up for that every game, except for 8. The Lakers consistently allow their opponents into the century mark midway through the 4th. That will need to change come playoff time. Throwing their unrivaled combination of size, experience, and talent into the playoffs makes them a huge threat to any team, and unlike any other.

Cavaliers: Lebron James. Not much more needs to be said here. The help of Mo Williams has helped Lebron and the Cavs hold the best record in the NBA. Lebron does everything a superstar should do. He is a freak of an athlete, and is virtually unguardable. If he improves his jumpshot, Lebron is the best player in the league. The biggest highlight for Lebron is his impressive passing ability. We have all seen his bullet passes on SportsCenter, and if he continues his high level of play, I would not be surprised to see them in the Finals.

What makes the Cavs unique is that outside of Lebron, every player is a role player. Obviously Mo Williams is the #2 option, but he feeds off Lebron. Williams has to wait to pick his spots, and go for it. Wally Sczerbiak is the same way. He is a shooter that feeds off of double teams from Lebron. The Cavs also play surprisingly good defense for their lack of size. They only allow 89ppg, the best in the NBA. They average 11 more points than their opponents. You can't argue with that stat. It proves their defensive superiority. Their defense comes from the perimeter. They have shot blockers in Ben Wallace, Varejao, and Ilgauskas (when healthy). Mo Williams is a great on the ball defender, and of course, James' unparalled athleticism makes it hard for any offensive player to get what he wants. I can't even find a comparison to the makeup of the Cavs in the last 25 years. There is almost no contemporary example of a team that has had the success the Cavs have enjoyed without another star on the team. There is an argument for Mo Williams to be that star, but we know that he is playing at this level because of Lebron. Ask the Bucks if they recognize this Mo Williams. This is all Lebron James. He is the future of this league, and maybe the only player we may ever seen that has James' physical build that mixes athleticism and overall basketball skill together to produce what Lebron has produced in his very young career.

All 4 of these teams have proven they are fallible. The Celtics went for a stretch of losing 6 out of 8, the Magic have losses to Memphis and Toronto, the Lakers have back-to-back losses twice this season, and the Cavs have lost to the Bulls. As good as these teams are, they have their vulnerabilities. For the first time in a while, the East is more top heavy than the West. I think the Spurs can challenge the Lakers for a Finals spot, but the race in the East is what everyone will be watching.

Izzy