The 3 Most Compelling Stories Going into the Playoffs

So I'm finally back. Some news before I jump into today's post. I've recently become the domain owner of dishingdimes.com. You can now access the site by simply typing dishingdimes.com into your browser. The webmaster is currently working on a few things, and should have everything up and running by the middle of April. With all of that, my boredom with this years' NCAA Tournament (Wake's ousting killed it for me) has brought me to focus my attention on the final stretch of the NBA season. There are 3 big story lines we need to watch before we hit the third week of April and the first round starts.

1) The 8th seed in both conferences- I'm not saying that there will be a repeat of the 2006 #8 Warriors over #1 Dallas, which I still stand by, is the biggest upset in sports history. I am saying that there are a few ways this could play out. Lets start in the East. I don't see Chicago falling out of the 8th spot right now. I think Charlotte can get there next year, but I don't think they are a consistent enough team to challenge Chicago for that spot. If Chicago hangs onto that last spot, I'm going to give the ROY to Derrick Rose. Lets take it a step further. Detroit has a chance to slip to 8th. Chicago is playing 7 games at home and 3 on the road to close the season. Out of their last 10 games, only Miami, Philly, and Detroit are playoff teams. The Bulls beat Miami without Derrick Rose and the road doesn't turn too sharply as they meet Philly, Detroit, and the rest, which are very winnable games. It is also worth noting that the game against Detroit is at Detroit, and could very well determine the 7th and 8th seeds in the East. If the Bulls can go out winning 8 of 10, they will be in great position. The Pistons lost to the Lakers in the game tonight, they have 11 more games, 1 of those games is against the Cavs, and the only other hurdles will be Philly and the big game against Chicago. Remember to watch the Pistons/Bulls game on April 13th because it will have major playoff implications. So lets think about what this actually means for Chicago and Detroit. An 8th seed means you are probably playing the Cavs, and a 7th seed means you are probably playing the Celtics. If I were the Bulls, I would much rather play against the Celtics than the Cavs. The Bulls have no one who can guard Lebron, but the Pistons can throw Tayshaun Prince on Lebron and contain him as much as any defense can. The Pistons probably don't want to play the Celtics in the first round due to their lack of size. They can't body up against KG, Glen Davis, KendrickPerkins, or Leon Powe very well. It will be a struggle for an undersized Detroit team. In short, it would be in the Pistons' best interest to drop to the 8th seed, but it might just be me. It is picking your poison.

In the West we have an interesting race between, really, #2-9. San Antonio could theoretically fall to the 8th spot at this point. Doubtful, but possible. At this point, anything can happen with those spots. The Suns are desperately trying to make the playoffs, and there is a chance they can pull it off. Dallas doesn't have a favorable schedule in the last 10 games of the season. Dallas plays Cleveland on Sunday, and has games against Miami, Phoenix, Utah, New Orleans twice, and Houston to close the season out. All of those games will have major playoff implications and all of those teams are going to be at full strength trying to finalize their playoff spots. Out of the last 10 games the Suns have, only 4 of them are playoff teams, one of those teams being Dallas. I see this playoff race going all the way until the last game. We may not know what happens, and both teams don't want to rely on the other team losing for playoff position. It will make for very interesting basketball. As for the middle of the field in the West, it is almost impossible to predict what will happen. Virtually every matchup in the West could swing either way from the 2 through 7 matchups. Lets even throw the Lakers in there in the 1 vs 8 matchup. The Lakers have a chance to lose if they don't come out at full strength. Seeding is of the utmost importance at this time of the year, and things are tight in the league right now. It will be interesting to see how the last two spots in the East play out and how the West plays out as a whole.

2) The Boston injuries- This could be the determining factor in the East. The Celtics will most likely get a 2 seed, and Doc Rivers assures us that they don't care what seed they get, "As long as we are healthy, we will lace up against anyone." That statement is true, but is contingent on the first clause. Can they get healthy? They are slowly bringing KG back, and they have a multitude of other injuries. KG has been unproductive as of late, but the Celtics have seemed to be playing relatively well without him at full strength. They lost a tough game to Orlando last night, but you can never underestimate what the Celtics can do with that much talent on one team. We saw the Celtics exploited by the very good Orlando team last night. Dwight Howard punishes them down low. There is virtually no one who can guard Dwight Howard. His style of play will revolutionize young centers with hopes of coming to the NBA. Howard's post presence and athleticism is too much for Boston to deal with if KG is not ready. It is also important to note that Ray Allen has had a few nagging injuries, but we can expect him to be fully healthy for the playoffs. The Celtics have been criticized for not playing with the same fire as they did last season, but a healthy Celtics team is just as dangerous as the championship team we saw last June. If KG is fully healthy, expect the Celtics to be in the Finals, but not without a 7 game series against Cleveland. The question will be whether KG's injuries follow him into the playoffs.

3) The Blazers- Does anyone remember them? They haven't made any headlines since the incident between Ariza and Fernandez. I truly believe that they can beat any team in the West. They have two interchangeable bigmen inside, a great young star, a scoring PF, and solid role players. They have upset written all over them. As of now, they would be playing the Rockets. From the history of the Rockets, an upset by the hands of the Blazers is not outrageous. Pay attention to how they play in this critical point in the season. It will be very telling to how they will perform in the playoffs. They are my sleeper pick for the playoffs.

Izzy

What is Wrong with the Pistons?

The Pistons have struggled as of late. They have only won 3 out of their last 10. They have gone from one of the elite in the NBA to a team not guaranteed a playoff spot. They have been replaced as one of the Top 3 teams in the East by the Orlando Magic. When I heard the other day that coach Michael Curry was toying with the idea of Allen Iverson coming off the bench, I was shocked. Curry ended up not making that decision, but instead, allowing Rip Hamilton to come off the bench. With all of the uncertainty in Detroit after the Billups trade, I stand here wondering what happened to the Detroit Pistons?

We are looking at the Nuggets right now battling for 3rd place with the Hornets in the Western Conference even without Carmelo Anthony. We look at the Pistons who are fighting with Atlanta for the 4th spot and hear Miami's footsteps right behind them. Could it be that trading Chauncey Billups was functionally throwing away their season. We have seen how Denver has been stabilized by the force that is Chauncey Billups. There is no question that Billups played the same role for the Pistons. The Pistons have handed the keys to Rodney Stuckey, but asking the young players to fill the shoes of Chauncey Billups is asking a bit too much. So now the Pistons are left with two shooting guards who deserve to start. What does Michael Curry do? Does he let AI stay at the 1 and Hamilton at the 2? When does Stuckey get his minutes? If Stuckey is to get better, he has to be gaining experience. Surely that experience can't come if Stuckey is not getting minutes. As you can see, Joe Dumars has put coach Michael Curry in a bad position.

After watching Hamilton come off the bench the other night against Dallas, it seemed to be ok for Hamilton as he finished with a team high, 17 points. AI seemed to be the inefficient one in the game against Dallas. AI only finished with 11 points on 3/9 shooting. The Pistons lost that game, and the Pistons are still struggling to find answers. As I see it, they have 3 problems. A lack of size in the front, inconsistency, and no real rhythmn to any of their games. They also have no real sense of identity. Are they a fast paced team with AI? Are they a half-court team that slowly pounds it inside? Are they a team that needs to just give it to AI and watch? It seems like they are all of those at times. Rasheed Wallace is their only real post threat, but as in past seasons, Wallace has not gone inside consistently, and has hung around the perimeter for much of the time.

I was talking to a friend the other day, and he was telling me that the reason the 76ers went to the Finals in 2001 was due to the lack of talent on the 6ers. I thought this was a peculiar comment coming from a Philly native and 76ers fan, but he brought up the fact that AI was not surrounded by any talent, and it was up to him to lead. He was also in his prime at the time. It is no secret that AI is declining at this point in his career and is looking for help. Is Detroit a good fit for him? No. It is nothing like the 76ers team he took to the Finals in 2001. AI needs the ball constantly, and having to share the ball with Tayshaun Prince, Rip Hamilton, and Rasheed Wallace makes it tough for AI to do what AI does, score.

Detroit has a severe deficiency in the middle. They have Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace at the 4 and 5 spots. Both of those players are essentially forwards. They have Kwame Brown coming off the bench, but few would call Kwame a credible center. Since the Pistons go small, they need to run a fast paced game, and AI can help them do that, but they don't. They constantly get lost in posessions. They hope that one of their playmakers can just throw a shot up. I seldom see plays being run by Pistons. They need a lot more guidance on the offensive and defensive ends. The Pistons have the talent to win games and make the playoffs, but I don't think anyone is thinking Finals, much less past the first round, at best.

A bystander can't help but wonder if Joe Dumars has just conceded the season in hopes of freeing up cap room with AI and Rasheed Wallace's expiring contracts. The Pistons might be one of those teams that are clearing out cap room in hopes of getting a big free agent in 2010. Don't kid yourselves Detroit, Lebron, Wade, or Bosh will not be there in 2010. If I didn't know any better, an early ousting in this years' playoffs probably means the dreaded r-word...rebuilding.

Izzy

Detroit Pistons Analysis

Many of you have requested to bring back the 'Off-Season To-Do List' series, but it was a little too much for our understaffed site to handle. So, to meet the demands of our faithful readers, we have decided to bring back the series in an abbreviated form. It will no longer be called the 'Off-Season To-Do list' because it is not the off-season anymore with the start of the preseason. We have decided to do analysis on teams that have been requested. We will try to accommodate as many requests as we can, but during the season, we will be blogging about season related issues instead of general analysis.
As you can tell by the title of this entry, the Pistons have been requested on numerous occasions. I have found the Pistons a very intriguing team in the NBA. Every year, someone picks them to go to the Finals or to win the championship. I've always found these predictions peculiar because they seem to be connecting dots that aren't there. Don't get me wrong, the Pistons are an extremely talented team, and they have the tools to be a competitive team year after year in the Eastern Conference. That is where it ends. A competitive Eastern Conference team. Even if they were a Western Conference team, they would still be competitive, but no matter where they play, they don't have the tools to get over the hump. I think Joe Dumars is starting to realize this and has pushed/will push the 'rebuild button'. This may not be totally apparent, but he has made a coaching change and toyed with the thought of trading his core this summer (The rumors with the Nuggets).

Here is the good news for the Pistons. They have a core of Rip Hamilton under contract until the summer of 2010, Tayshaun Prince until the summer of 2011, and Chauncey Billups until 2012. It gets even better for the Pistons, this is Rasheed Wallace's contract year. He is due to make $13.6 million this year and becomes an unrestricted free agent. This has huge implications for both Sheed and the Pistons. With Sheed being the highest paid Piston, but being only the 4th highest scorer on the team while averaging a very unimpressive 12.7ppg, 6.6 rebs, and 1.68blks, he will have a lot of incentive to boost those numbers this year, and Dumars as well as other GM's around the league will be taking note.. Sheed is only getting further and further away from his Tarheel glory days, and he will be demanding a huge contract to secure him and his family for life. That can happen, if, he performs big this season. As with many players and their contract years, expect Wallace to put up some huge numbers this season. He has always been an effective passer for a big man, but he should be averaging more than 1.8 assts per game. That statistic seems to be indicative of Sheed not looking to make the play and just settling. One of his biggest criticisms throughout his career has been his consistency. He shows up and then disappears through stretches of the season. He also tends to hang out on the perimeter instead of going down on the block. He does not utilize his post ability as much as he can. If he works on his post presence instead of settling for the three pointer, the Pistons will be very strong at the 4, which seems to be where everyone is making an upgrade these days. Wallace played decently well during the playoffs, but was shut down by KG during the Conference Finals. That is the biggest concern for Piston fans as it stands right now. KG and the Celtics are clearly the biggest impediment to making the Finals. If it does not happen this year, I can't see how the Pistons stay with Rasheed. This relationship won't be ablle to be rationally proglonged unless the Pistons get past the Celtics, at least.

If Sheed does have to leave after this year, Piston fans won't be too upset about it because they have one of the best young forwards in the game in Tayshaun Prince. The Compton Dominguez high school star and Kentucky Wildcat is the future of the Pistons. He has a 7'6 wingspan and a solid all around game. He creates matchup problems every night because of his length and solid defensive presence. Prince will be paid a fair $9.5 million this year and have that increase to $10.5 million and finally, to $11.3 million over the next 2 years. Prince made his mark on the league with his infamous block against Reggie Miller in the Conference Finals in 2004. Since then, he has become a household name, won a championship, and earned a spot on the Beijing team. He is most effective when he gets spot up mid-range jumpshots and is able to work within the system. Prince seems to have a great ability to adapt to different styles of play. Under Flip he was able to play a wing type of a role and get hustle points with a couple plays run for him throughout the game. With Michael Curry taking the reigns in Detroit the impact it will have is unknown at this point. I would expect Prince to be able to adapt to any role given to him because that is the type of player he is. He will still get his looks and will still create opportunities for himself. Prince has also never sustained a major injury in his career and has been a pretty consistent contributor for the most part throughout his career. I'd expect to see Prince being a constant and a long term player in the Piston's future.

I have been a firm believer for the last 4 years that the Pistons have the best back court in basketball. The combination of Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups is a coach's dream. You have a strong ball-handling guard in Billups who is a constant producer in terms of points and assists at 17ppg and 6.8assts, respectively, and you have Rip Hamilton, the overachieving sharp-shooter who averages the most points for Detroit at 17.3ppg. It is what you would envision a back court to look like. Two smaller players, one who can dribble, pass, make good decisions and protect the ball as your 1 guard, and the 2 guard who can shoot from anywhere on the court after receiving the ball from the point guard. This year, both players will combine to make $21.5 million of the $67.8 million payroll the Pistons will have to dish out this year. To exemplify how fair that amount of money is, Rip and Chauncey combine to average 34.3 ppg of the Piston's 97.5 ppg avg. That is 34% of the total points for the Pistons. Their salaries make up 31.7% of the total payroll. This shows that they are producing to the extent to which they should be. They also are not too bad on the defensive end as Rip logs 1 steal per game and Chauncey logs 1.2 steals per game. Both players are amazing perimeter defenders. Billups has the size to body up against bigger point guards like Deron Williams, and the speed and athleticism to keep up with players like Tony Parker, Chris Paul, and Steve Nash. Hamilton is undersized, but can still be a pesky defender. I think the Piston's biggest weakness is their lack of size overall, but it is most commonly exploited in the back court. It is tough for the Pistons to throw Rip on a 2 like Kobe or T-Mac. There is no doubt Rip has the quickness, but he is not strong enough to body up against players like that. Even smaller sized players at the 2 like Caron Butler would still have size advantages over Hamilton, and that poses a problem for Detroit. Many say, just throw Tayshaun on that player. Well, that creates another problem. Who does Rip guard? If Tayshaun has to guard T-Mac, then who guards Artest? If Tayshaun has to guard Kobe, who guards Lamar? Those are just two teams that can exploit the matchup of Rip Hamilton, but that is less of a concern considering the Lakers and Rockets are not in the same conference. For the purposes of the the Eastern Conference, Rip will be good enough to match up to Ray Allen, all the Pistons should really care about.

The reason I wrote that the Pistons might be going through a rebuilding stage is due to their youth movement. They have brought in a lot of young talent with Maxiell, Afflalo, Stuckey, and their two draft picks of D.J White and Deron Washington. All of these players are in the beginning of their career and especially the first three players named, will have an opportunity to become stars in this league. Antonio McDyess at 8.8ppg and 8.5 rebs and commanding $6.8 million the next two years is not what I would call ideal. In addition, having Kwame Brown as the backup is clearly a deficiency. I have written about the Kwame Brown acquisition in a previous post so I won't go into that any more although it is no secret that I strongly disagree with it.

This coming season will be the ultimate test for the Pistons. They have made some tweaks in their roster, and will still be in the annual discussion of who will win the East. Their name is undoubtedly the top two on that list. I still don't see them making it past the Celtics with their current squad. The Pistons have a great core and they are probably two players away from a championship. The Pistons can go in two directions at this point. They could be remembered as the one year fluke that took advantage of a disheveled and unorganized Laker team. Or, they could be the team that had no defined superstar and won because of their team play, saved the NBA from the stereotype of a 'superstar first' league, and played the game like Mr. Naismith envisioned when he invented the game.

Izzy

Links:
Both of these links are from ESPN the Mag.

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