Playoff Bullets

Here are my quick thoughts on the playoffs:

• The Nuggets have been the most surprising team in the playoffs thus far. Melo is making an image comeback. He is showing a lot of heart out there on the court. The Nuggets in general are playing inspired basketball. Nene is a force down in the middle and Kenyon Martin is the closest thing we have seen to "an enforcer" in recent memory. The Nuggets success, and George Karl's job, can all be traced back to Chauncey Billups. He has put this team on his back and showed them how to win. Chris "Birdman" Anderson and J.R Smith have become huge forces off the bench. I'd even go as far to say that the Nuggets have one of the top 3 benches in the league at this point. J.R Smith is an explosive scorer and Anderson is the hustle player you need to make the big block, get the big rebound, dive for the ball, or get the big dunk. What more can you ask for? This team is for real.
  

• Dirk Nowitski clearly cannot carry the Mavs alone. The Mavs will lose this series, and no one would be surprised if they got swept. The Mavs need to reload this offseason and go after a player who can play alongside Dirk. Josh Howard is a great player, but another big time scorer or a defender would take the Mavs a long way. Kidd will be a free agent this summer which means two things. 1) 20 million in space and 2) Cuban can stop running stats to prove that the Kidd trade was a good one. It was not. The Mavs need to go big this summer as Cuban is one of the only owners in the league who can afford to spend money. Chris Paul anyone?

• The Rockets will not go away easily. Everyone counted them out before this series even started. The series is sitting at 1-1 and the physical play shows no signs of tappering off. Blood has been drawn, elbows have been thrown, ejections have been handed out, and we have been treated to a series. This is the edge that Ron Artest brings. He brings a blue collar style of basketball to the Rockets who is ready to do the nitty gritty stuff that is essential to playoff success. I also don't want to hear that the Rockets are better without Tracy McGrady. I can assure you that Rick Adelman would love to see him out there as another offensive threat. Speaking of threats, the biggest threat to the Lakers is Shane Battier's defense. He has solidified that he is the best defender in the league against Kobe. Making Kobe work hard on every possession is as much as Adelman can ask for. Battier putting a hand right in Kobe's face is the most effective defensive strategy in basketball. Hands Down. This series is far from over.
  

• The Lakers were exposed in Game 1 against the Rockets. The time off showed how vulnerable the Lakers were to physical play. It also showed how tough the defense was on the interior which kept the Lakers bigs from going off. The perimeter defense was solid in game 1 which caused the Lakers to shoot 2/17. In game 2, the Lakers flipped the script and came out gunning. What is worrisome for the Lakers is they are not playing good enough defense. They seem to just be putting up volume scoring without commiting on the defensive end. Expect PJ to fix that before this series is over. There is a team in Colorado that is much further along on the defensive front than the Lakers have been this playoffs. This is also one series that the Lakers do not have a distinct size advantage. It is a struggle for the Lakers big men down low to check Yao Ming, and the penetration in the lane has not been easy. Lot of work to do here for the Lakers.
  
  
  
  

• The Magic will almost undoubtedly lose Alston for the next game. That will be a crushing blow to the Magic for game 3, but they can still win that game. In fact, they should beat the Celtics in the series. I don't see any reason why they lose this series. They outmatch the Celtics in size and if they limit their turnovers, this series should go to Orlando. Dwight Howard has to transform from class clown to proven team leader. This is the big test for the Magic. A series win against the C's will be a gigantic step for the organization. The encouraging thing is that this Magic team is essentially the same team as last year, and the improvement is drastic. I do think this is another series that goes to 7 games, but facing the Cavs in the next round is not something to look forward to. I think the Magic are the only team in the East who can legitimately challenge the Cavs. That series would be a treat for NBA fans. Orlando...please finish this.

• The Celtics are beat up. Fatigue has clearly played a role in this series, and will become an even bigger factor as the series goes on. Yeah yeah...defending champs. They can overcome anything. No. Please don't kid yourself. The Celtics need KG. That is the end of it. Here is an interesting thought experiment. Lets imagine KG never came to the Celtics. The Celtics now have Pierce, Allen, and Al Jefferson. Jefferson got injured at the end of the season. Would Jefferson have a better chance to come back during the playoffs than KG? Would the Celtics have won the championship last year with Jefferson instead of KG? Give that some serious thought. I think the Celtics would have still won the championship last year, and this year, Jefferson would probably be able to come back, or at the very least, have a better chance to come back than KG. This playoff season has brought the emergence of Rajon Rondo. He has lived up the potential that he has. The success of a healthy Celtics team rests on how well Rondo can play. He has 4 triple-doubles this playoff season, the first player since Jason Kidd. Rondo is for real. Injuries have decided this postseason in the East. A healthy Celtics team on the court means a very different outcome. Next year.
  

• The Cavs are playing flawless basketball. I'm wondering whether the Cavs are actually this good or their competition has been this bad. Lebron is the MVP and he is playing like it. There has been no legitimate defense against Lebron, and I don't know if such a thing is possible. The one concern for the Cavs is the lack of challenge for the Cavs. If you buy into the "Must be battle tested before the finals" menality, then no, the Cavs are not ready, and hopefully the Conference Finals will provide that test for the Cavs. If you buy into the "Bring on anything, and we are ready" menality then yes, the Cavs have what it takes to live up to any challenge. Not much else to say about the Cavs. Their play says all that needs to be said.

• The Hawks? Have fun on your summer vacation next week! This series is over.
  

Quick Playoff Predictions

Things have been hectic which is why I haven't been able to post in a while. I hope to get back to my normal posting routine now that things have cooled down.

Since the playoffs are upon us, I'm going to give a quick prediction on each series. We all know that the rounds before the Finals are just entertainment before the Cavs and Lakers play.

Eastern Conference

Cavs vs Pistons: The Pistons don't have a chance. Yes, the Pistons have a lot of experience, but experience does not matter when you are a sub-500 team going up against the team with the best record in the league and the player who will undoubtedly be named the MVP. Look for this series to be the only sweep all playoffs. Prediction: 4-0 Cavs

Celtics vs Bulls: This series will be a breeze for the Celtics. Of course, the big drama is losing KG for the playoffs. The Bulls still don't have the personnel to match up to the Celtics firepower. We will get a treat to see a two up-and-coming point guards in Rondo and Rose go up against each other. It will also be interesting to see the KG story unfold. Will he be on the bench as an emotional lift? Will it be too painful for him to be on the bench? Will he focus on rehabbing so he can possibly make a comeback later on in the playoffs? That is why everyone will pay attention to this series. It has more to do with the storyline than it does basketball. Prediction: Celtics 4-1

Magic vs Sixers: Again, not much to see here. The only weakness I see for the Magic is the health of Lewis and Turkoglu holding them back. Even without them healthy, the Magic have a lot more than the Sixers. Who is going to Dwight Howard? I bet Tony DiLeo has been asking that question since these matchups have been set. The Sixers barely edged out a Cavs team on the last night without any of their starters. Look for this series to be over quick. I do think the Magic are a little too inexperienced to effectively close teams out. This is also virtually the same team that gave the Pistons fits last playoffs. I could see the Sixers putting up a fight. Prediction: Magic 4-2

Hawks vs Heat: I really think the Hawks could sneak up on people. They took the Celtics to 7 games and then people started looking their way. The Hawks pretty much have the same roster as last season, and they have had some big wins this season. Just like many players (Robert Horry and James Posey) come out during the playoffs, I think we will see that with the Atlanta Hawks. They won't have it easy though. Dwyane Wade, the MVP candidate, is an overachieving team. Wade is good enough to single handedly win a series. Look for Wade to put this team on his back as he has all season and give the Hawks a lot of trouble. I think Wade will only be able to carry his team to a certain extent. Their inexperience under playoff conditions will cause them to drop 1 game at home. Both teams are horrible on the road (16-25 and 15-26, respectively). I'm giving the series to the home team, the Hawks. Prediction: Hawks 4-2


Western Conference

Lakers vs Jazz: The Jazz played the Lakers hard last year. Although people think the Lakers will waltz through the playoffs, don't expect it to be that easy. The Jazz are going to put up a fight. Deron Williams is the second best point guard in the league. He is a big time player that comes through in clutch situations. If the game is close, I wouldn't be surprised to see Williams drop 11 straight points. The Jazz are a physical team that doesn't have much of a low post presence outside of Boozer. They also play pretty good defense and have bodies to put against the big front line of the Lakers. To counter Deron Williams, the Lakers have #24. We are all aware of what Kobe can do. The Jazz will have to try and limit the rest of the Lakers and let AK47 to the best he can against Kobe. To make matters worse, Pau is the best 2nd option in the NBA. Like Boozer, he is a double-double machine. Boozer will have to play amazing defense against Gasol in order to have a chance in this series. As for Bynum, if he is half as productive has he has been, it is going to be a long night for the Jazz. No surprise here. Prediction: Lakers 4-1

Nuggets vs Hornets: The best point guard in Chris Paul and the third best point guard in Chauncey Billups go at it. The Nuggets have the big names, but their embarassing loss to the Blazers the other night could not have been encouraging for George Karl. Melo is still inconsistent and has a chance to make a name for himself. Billups is a proven leader with championship experience. Nene is a solid big man that can go up against a healthy Chandler and the Nuggets have, in my mind, the 6th man of the year in J.R Smith. Smith is explosive and dangerous. The more you see Smith play, the more you know he is for real. Smith was the only reason the Nuggets didn't get completely embarassed last year against the Lakers in the first round. If the Hornets have a healthy Chandler and Peja can come back to somewhat of what he has been in the past, the Hornets have a chance. In fact, I think a healthy Chandler means the Hornets win. David West and Melo will also be an interesting matchup. The Hornets are only 6 games worse in terms of records compared to the Nuggets. Their seeding is not indicative of their talent. Prediction: Hornets 4-3

Spurs vs Mavericks: Like the Celtics, the talk is about losing Manu. Pop is going to let that distract his team. The Spurs have a lot to lose by going out early in the playoffs. An early loss for the Spurs will have the basketball world talking Tim Duncan retirement. The Spurs have a lot to prove. The Mavs have always been the team that never could. The Spurs have the young gunners and the veteran leaders in Parker and Duncan. The Mavs have veteran gunners like Dirk, Josh Howard, and probably the 6th man of the year in Jason Terry. Most importantly, Jason Kidd is the veteran that needs to step up and lead this team. This is about as good as it gets for NBA fans. A team that has nothing to lose in the Mavs, and a team that has everything to lose in the Spurs. This is going to be a good one. In the end, I don't think the Mavs are durable or patient enough to hang with the steady Spurs. Prediction: Spurs 4-2

Blazers vs Rockets: This could be the year the Rockets finally make it out of the first round. The good news for the Rockets is that they match up to the Blazers well. The bad news is that they are the Rockets. Battier will play Brandon Roy and that is going to help them out a lot. If they can limit Brandon Roy, things might swing Houston's way. The Rockets have a couple of offensive options. Nothing too overwhelming. The Blazers have great offensive players like Aldridge and Outlaw. They also have a good group of young players in Bayless, Fernandez and Rodriguez. The Blazers are undoutedly more talented right now compared to the Rockets. There are rumblings that Yao's foot is hurt and won't be 100% for the playoffs. I think that is where it ends. Another injury-plagued season for the Rockets leads to another tough first round matchup, and leads to an early summer vacation. A lot of people think this series will be close. I would like to see this go to 7, but it will end in Game 6 at the Toyota Center. Prediction: Blazers 4-2

Izzy

The 3 Most Compelling Stories Going into the Playoffs

So I'm finally back. Some news before I jump into today's post. I've recently become the domain owner of dishingdimes.com. You can now access the site by simply typing dishingdimes.com into your browser. The webmaster is currently working on a few things, and should have everything up and running by the middle of April. With all of that, my boredom with this years' NCAA Tournament (Wake's ousting killed it for me) has brought me to focus my attention on the final stretch of the NBA season. There are 3 big story lines we need to watch before we hit the third week of April and the first round starts.

1) The 8th seed in both conferences- I'm not saying that there will be a repeat of the 2006 #8 Warriors over #1 Dallas, which I still stand by, is the biggest upset in sports history. I am saying that there are a few ways this could play out. Lets start in the East. I don't see Chicago falling out of the 8th spot right now. I think Charlotte can get there next year, but I don't think they are a consistent enough team to challenge Chicago for that spot. If Chicago hangs onto that last spot, I'm going to give the ROY to Derrick Rose. Lets take it a step further. Detroit has a chance to slip to 8th. Chicago is playing 7 games at home and 3 on the road to close the season. Out of their last 10 games, only Miami, Philly, and Detroit are playoff teams. The Bulls beat Miami without Derrick Rose and the road doesn't turn too sharply as they meet Philly, Detroit, and the rest, which are very winnable games. It is also worth noting that the game against Detroit is at Detroit, and could very well determine the 7th and 8th seeds in the East. If the Bulls can go out winning 8 of 10, they will be in great position. The Pistons lost to the Lakers in the game tonight, they have 11 more games, 1 of those games is against the Cavs, and the only other hurdles will be Philly and the big game against Chicago. Remember to watch the Pistons/Bulls game on April 13th because it will have major playoff implications. So lets think about what this actually means for Chicago and Detroit. An 8th seed means you are probably playing the Cavs, and a 7th seed means you are probably playing the Celtics. If I were the Bulls, I would much rather play against the Celtics than the Cavs. The Bulls have no one who can guard Lebron, but the Pistons can throw Tayshaun Prince on Lebron and contain him as much as any defense can. The Pistons probably don't want to play the Celtics in the first round due to their lack of size. They can't body up against KG, Glen Davis, KendrickPerkins, or Leon Powe very well. It will be a struggle for an undersized Detroit team. In short, it would be in the Pistons' best interest to drop to the 8th seed, but it might just be me. It is picking your poison.

In the West we have an interesting race between, really, #2-9. San Antonio could theoretically fall to the 8th spot at this point. Doubtful, but possible. At this point, anything can happen with those spots. The Suns are desperately trying to make the playoffs, and there is a chance they can pull it off. Dallas doesn't have a favorable schedule in the last 10 games of the season. Dallas plays Cleveland on Sunday, and has games against Miami, Phoenix, Utah, New Orleans twice, and Houston to close the season out. All of those games will have major playoff implications and all of those teams are going to be at full strength trying to finalize their playoff spots. Out of the last 10 games the Suns have, only 4 of them are playoff teams, one of those teams being Dallas. I see this playoff race going all the way until the last game. We may not know what happens, and both teams don't want to rely on the other team losing for playoff position. It will make for very interesting basketball. As for the middle of the field in the West, it is almost impossible to predict what will happen. Virtually every matchup in the West could swing either way from the 2 through 7 matchups. Lets even throw the Lakers in there in the 1 vs 8 matchup. The Lakers have a chance to lose if they don't come out at full strength. Seeding is of the utmost importance at this time of the year, and things are tight in the league right now. It will be interesting to see how the last two spots in the East play out and how the West plays out as a whole.

2) The Boston injuries- This could be the determining factor in the East. The Celtics will most likely get a 2 seed, and Doc Rivers assures us that they don't care what seed they get, "As long as we are healthy, we will lace up against anyone." That statement is true, but is contingent on the first clause. Can they get healthy? They are slowly bringing KG back, and they have a multitude of other injuries. KG has been unproductive as of late, but the Celtics have seemed to be playing relatively well without him at full strength. They lost a tough game to Orlando last night, but you can never underestimate what the Celtics can do with that much talent on one team. We saw the Celtics exploited by the very good Orlando team last night. Dwight Howard punishes them down low. There is virtually no one who can guard Dwight Howard. His style of play will revolutionize young centers with hopes of coming to the NBA. Howard's post presence and athleticism is too much for Boston to deal with if KG is not ready. It is also important to note that Ray Allen has had a few nagging injuries, but we can expect him to be fully healthy for the playoffs. The Celtics have been criticized for not playing with the same fire as they did last season, but a healthy Celtics team is just as dangerous as the championship team we saw last June. If KG is fully healthy, expect the Celtics to be in the Finals, but not without a 7 game series against Cleveland. The question will be whether KG's injuries follow him into the playoffs.

3) The Blazers- Does anyone remember them? They haven't made any headlines since the incident between Ariza and Fernandez. I truly believe that they can beat any team in the West. They have two interchangeable bigmen inside, a great young star, a scoring PF, and solid role players. They have upset written all over them. As of now, they would be playing the Rockets. From the history of the Rockets, an upset by the hands of the Blazers is not outrageous. Pay attention to how they play in this critical point in the season. It will be very telling to how they will perform in the playoffs. They are my sleeper pick for the playoffs.

Izzy

Stephon Marbury to Celtics Analysis

With the help of my friend Ben Fish, I was able to put together this post. Fish is a devout Celtics fan, and was able to give me a taste of what the Celtic faithful think about the Marbury acquisition.

Stephon Marbury is expected to clear waivers on Friday morning and is largely expected to join the Celtics. Marbury and the Knicks reached a buyout agreement earlier this week. Marbury was set to earn $21.9 million this season (the 2nd highest in the NBA). The specifics of the buyout were not made public, but it is largely agreed upon that Marbury lost only about $1.5-$2 million dollars in the deal. Due to Marbury's veteran status, he is set to earn a minimum of $1.5 million on a prorated contract. Marbury's projected loss from the buyout+ his Celtics contract are about $200,000-$500,000. Pocket money,comparatively. The salary caps of both teams go pretty much unaffected. The Knicks sitll own the highest payroll in the league with about $96 million after the Marbury buyout. The Celtics currently have a $78 million payroll and with the acquisition of Marbury, they will, in total, add $3million to that number, which includes the luxury tax penalty.

Boston benefits from the addition of Marbury by adding depth an already depleted bench, and more importantly, to the point guard position. Marbury will provide much needed ball-handling skills to a team that depends on Rajon Rondo to run the point. It will also allow for Eddie House to move to his normal, more natural position at the 2, as he is certainly not a ball-handler. Eddie House is a pure spot-up shooter. Moving him out of his comfort zone was the only choice Doc Rivers had due to the lack of options in the back. The extra playing time for Rondo only helped his game out. We have seen flashes of what Rondo can be, and most likely, will be in the years to come. Marbury hasn't played in an NBA game since January 11, 2008. We can expect that Marbury will be focused and ready to contribute to the Celtics playoff run. Marbury also has an incentive to contribute due to him not having a contract next year. His free agent status at the end of this year will basically mean that he is auditioning for NBA teams to sign him this offseason. Conventional wisdom has always told us nothing produces statistics from a player like a contract year. The NBA will get a very brief, and maybe skewed view of Marbury's ability to play. Rounding off the end of the season isn't going to convince a lot of teams that he still has high calibur productive capability, but I can see teams taking a chance on him for a low amount of money just based on what he has done in the past.

Lets take a look at what Marbury can bring to the Celtics. I have written about how Marbury could be potentially a locker room divider. Garnett has publicly stated that it wouldn't be a problem, as well as other Celtics. Winning will solve all of those problems. I don't think that Marbury will cause any sort of distraction, if for anything, because of his expiring contract. Marbury averaged 19.8ppg and 7.8 assts playing along side Garnett on the T'Wolves. However, don't try to pick up Marbury in your fantasy league just yet. Also, don't expect Marbury to come anywhere close to those numbers just because he is alongside KG again (I don't think any of you did). In fact, expect Marbury to average under 8ppg and about 5 assts with a couple of boards and a steal or two. I expect Marbury to avg about 15-17 minutes a game. From my memory of Marbury, which is fading by now, he is a dynamic player. I don't think that he was putting much effort in during his days in New York. That is one of the main reasons I don't want to cite his statistics from his New York days. I don't think those are indicative of what he brings to the table, and I don't think those are a good baseline comparison to what will go down for him in Boston. Marbury is a scoring point guard. He can create shots for himself, but that isn't what Boston wants him to be. Marbury needs to be a distributor. He needs to give Rondo some rest, and be able to maintain the same level of offensive production as if Rondo was out on the floor. Marbury will be asked to put the ball in the post, and hit shots. He will occassionaly get his number called on a play, and he will have to drive the lane and make shots. Simple as that. If Marbury starts throwing up 30 foot 3pters like he did in New York under Isiah Thomas, Marbury is out. The offensive focus is not on Marbury, and he knows that. He has to play within Doc's system and know that he is a role player. Marbury is extraordinarily quick with the ball, and his size has always been his selling point. He can create his shot by using his size. He can separate himself from defenders as well as drive the lane. His body type is very similar to Jason Kidd. Of course, their games are drastically different, but how many times have we seen Kidd use his size to grab a board or throw up a tough shot in the lane? Marbury is the same type of player. Marbury is incredibly good at attacking the spaces in defense. When defenses cheat too far, Marbury picks up on that and attacks the holes on the defense to create a lane for himself and get to the basket. His size gives him a huge advantage over a lot of NBA point guards, especially in the East. Marbury will be the best backup point guard in the NBA, and that is a valuable asset for the Celtics. His combination of skill and size will never give the other team a break. When the opposing team has to sit its starter, Marbury will be there playing with the ability of a starter.

All of this seems like a dream come true for the Celtics. Don't get too excited. The Celtics have built their team around defense. Marbury is notorious for his lack of defensive effort. He has played this way since his days at Georgia Tech so we can't attribute it to his lack of motivation in New York. If he is motivated, he can be a great on the ball defender. Watch Marbury on defense if you get a chance. He will get into a low defensive stance when he is trying, but straighten his back when he is not trying. He also likes to gamble on passes at the top of the key. Every time I have watched Marbury, he makes up for his lack of defense by gambling on a steal. The one kind of positive is that he keeps ball out of the lane by forcing the defender to the weak side, but when the ball gets swung he shows a low awareness of where the ball is and tends to get beat back door anyway. Those are just some of the highlights of Marbury's defense. I'm sure you all will be able to recall more specific details of Marbury's lack of defense, and also see more of his deficiency on the defensive end when he starts playing. If you think I am just making this stuff up, watch him or go read a scouting report. Plain observation over the course of 2 or 3 games will most likely reveal all of the things I just mentioned in this post.

Overall, I think the move will help the Celtics. I don't think that any other team in the league is as deep as the Celtics at the point guard position at this point. The closest team to matching their depth at the 1 spot is either San Antonio or Denver. No team in the East is even close. The Celtics won't even have to think about Denver, and San Antonio has a chance at the Finals, but the Celtics won't need to look at their footage before the 2nd week of May. This is a low risk in terms of finances and basketball.

Izzy

Contributions by Ben Fish