The 3 Most Compelling Stories Going into the Playoffs

So I'm finally back. Some news before I jump into today's post. I've recently become the domain owner of dishingdimes.com. You can now access the site by simply typing dishingdimes.com into your browser. The webmaster is currently working on a few things, and should have everything up and running by the middle of April. With all of that, my boredom with this years' NCAA Tournament (Wake's ousting killed it for me) has brought me to focus my attention on the final stretch of the NBA season. There are 3 big story lines we need to watch before we hit the third week of April and the first round starts.

1) The 8th seed in both conferences- I'm not saying that there will be a repeat of the 2006 #8 Warriors over #1 Dallas, which I still stand by, is the biggest upset in sports history. I am saying that there are a few ways this could play out. Lets start in the East. I don't see Chicago falling out of the 8th spot right now. I think Charlotte can get there next year, but I don't think they are a consistent enough team to challenge Chicago for that spot. If Chicago hangs onto that last spot, I'm going to give the ROY to Derrick Rose. Lets take it a step further. Detroit has a chance to slip to 8th. Chicago is playing 7 games at home and 3 on the road to close the season. Out of their last 10 games, only Miami, Philly, and Detroit are playoff teams. The Bulls beat Miami without Derrick Rose and the road doesn't turn too sharply as they meet Philly, Detroit, and the rest, which are very winnable games. It is also worth noting that the game against Detroit is at Detroit, and could very well determine the 7th and 8th seeds in the East. If the Bulls can go out winning 8 of 10, they will be in great position. The Pistons lost to the Lakers in the game tonight, they have 11 more games, 1 of those games is against the Cavs, and the only other hurdles will be Philly and the big game against Chicago. Remember to watch the Pistons/Bulls game on April 13th because it will have major playoff implications. So lets think about what this actually means for Chicago and Detroit. An 8th seed means you are probably playing the Cavs, and a 7th seed means you are probably playing the Celtics. If I were the Bulls, I would much rather play against the Celtics than the Cavs. The Bulls have no one who can guard Lebron, but the Pistons can throw Tayshaun Prince on Lebron and contain him as much as any defense can. The Pistons probably don't want to play the Celtics in the first round due to their lack of size. They can't body up against KG, Glen Davis, KendrickPerkins, or Leon Powe very well. It will be a struggle for an undersized Detroit team. In short, it would be in the Pistons' best interest to drop to the 8th seed, but it might just be me. It is picking your poison.

In the West we have an interesting race between, really, #2-9. San Antonio could theoretically fall to the 8th spot at this point. Doubtful, but possible. At this point, anything can happen with those spots. The Suns are desperately trying to make the playoffs, and there is a chance they can pull it off. Dallas doesn't have a favorable schedule in the last 10 games of the season. Dallas plays Cleveland on Sunday, and has games against Miami, Phoenix, Utah, New Orleans twice, and Houston to close the season out. All of those games will have major playoff implications and all of those teams are going to be at full strength trying to finalize their playoff spots. Out of the last 10 games the Suns have, only 4 of them are playoff teams, one of those teams being Dallas. I see this playoff race going all the way until the last game. We may not know what happens, and both teams don't want to rely on the other team losing for playoff position. It will make for very interesting basketball. As for the middle of the field in the West, it is almost impossible to predict what will happen. Virtually every matchup in the West could swing either way from the 2 through 7 matchups. Lets even throw the Lakers in there in the 1 vs 8 matchup. The Lakers have a chance to lose if they don't come out at full strength. Seeding is of the utmost importance at this time of the year, and things are tight in the league right now. It will be interesting to see how the last two spots in the East play out and how the West plays out as a whole.

2) The Boston injuries- This could be the determining factor in the East. The Celtics will most likely get a 2 seed, and Doc Rivers assures us that they don't care what seed they get, "As long as we are healthy, we will lace up against anyone." That statement is true, but is contingent on the first clause. Can they get healthy? They are slowly bringing KG back, and they have a multitude of other injuries. KG has been unproductive as of late, but the Celtics have seemed to be playing relatively well without him at full strength. They lost a tough game to Orlando last night, but you can never underestimate what the Celtics can do with that much talent on one team. We saw the Celtics exploited by the very good Orlando team last night. Dwight Howard punishes them down low. There is virtually no one who can guard Dwight Howard. His style of play will revolutionize young centers with hopes of coming to the NBA. Howard's post presence and athleticism is too much for Boston to deal with if KG is not ready. It is also important to note that Ray Allen has had a few nagging injuries, but we can expect him to be fully healthy for the playoffs. The Celtics have been criticized for not playing with the same fire as they did last season, but a healthy Celtics team is just as dangerous as the championship team we saw last June. If KG is fully healthy, expect the Celtics to be in the Finals, but not without a 7 game series against Cleveland. The question will be whether KG's injuries follow him into the playoffs.

3) The Blazers- Does anyone remember them? They haven't made any headlines since the incident between Ariza and Fernandez. I truly believe that they can beat any team in the West. They have two interchangeable bigmen inside, a great young star, a scoring PF, and solid role players. They have upset written all over them. As of now, they would be playing the Rockets. From the history of the Rockets, an upset by the hands of the Blazers is not outrageous. Pay attention to how they play in this critical point in the season. It will be very telling to how they will perform in the playoffs. They are my sleeper pick for the playoffs.

Izzy

Team USA, J.R Smith, Shaun Livingston and Darius Miles evaluations

Team USA is winning the gold. There is no doubt about it. Anyone who tells you different is just trying to avoid a complete embarrassment that would leave US basketball in a crippled state on the international level. The good news is that there is absolutely not chance that this is going to happen. The US has been playing inconsistently throughout portions of games, but still manage to crush opponents in the second half. The Aussie's were just getting excited until the US actually started playing and Kobe dropped 25 to put that one in the bag. The Bucks must have felt great knowing that their $70 million investment, Andrew Bogut, dominated the Team USA big men by netting a whopping 4 points. Good luck on that rebuilding Milwaukee! You traded two great prospects in Yi and Mo Williams and just watched your #1 draft pick, a pick that would be the worst first pick if it weren't for Kwame Brown and Michael Olowakandi, just produce absolutely nothing against top tier NBA competition.

The US team toyed around with Argentina, let them come back to single digits, and then Melo and the rest of Team USA decided that this game was over, and turned the lights out on Argentina's gold medal hopes. The most worrisome thing that Spurs fans, Argentina fans, and Manu Ginobili fans should take out of this game is the fact that Manu has not fully recovered from his ankle injury. The same injury that left him as a non-factor (except one game) in the Conference Finals against the Lakers. Manu leaving in the first quarter was a death blow to Argentina, and everyone knew it.

For Houston fans, Scola's 28 points should be very comforting. I have said it before, that Scola is a rising star in the NBA, and his production can only move upward. He did it all against the best players in the world, and the best team in basketball since the Dream Team. Scola and the Rockets have a very bright future, and who knows what the limit is for his talent.

Prediction for USA vs Spain: A huge win for the United States. The US crushed Spain in their first outing, and the Spanish team can't do much about it except trying to limit paint points and force jump shots. Spain will finish with silver and the US will win their first championship in an international tournament since Sydney in 2000 and reclaim US basketball as the best in the world.

Thoughts on Darius Miles: This signing is bad news for Portland. If Darius plays more than 10 games for the Celtics, the entirety of his contract has to be paid out. Darius is due to make $9 million the next two seasons. Not a good thing for Paul Allen's checkbook. Miles was the third pick in the 2000 draft and many cite him as an example of why high school players should not be allowed to enter the NBA, but he has shown some promise pre-injury. His supposed career ending surgery has made Miles a success story. He will be a dangerous player because he will want to prove that not only can he play for the defending champions, but he was not a draft bust and just needed to be in the right situation at the right time. This is his chance. Before his injury, for the Blazers, he averaged 10.4 pts, 5.2 rebs, and 1.15 blks. Not too bad, but not what a #3 pick should be averaging. The Celtics will be able to use him to try and fill the role of James Posey. Miles has never been a nitty-gritty type of player like Posey, but Miles is a credible offensive threat when he wants to be. He can score, and will cause match-up problems if he plays the 3. At 6'9 and 235lbs, he is a sizable body that can play the post and has a decent mid-range game. It is going to improve the Celtics bench a bit, but not totally fulfill Posey's roll on the team. Overall, good move for the Celtics and Miles. Danny Ainge clearly saw something in those workouts that none of us have access to. Boston fans should not be too worried except he failed his 4th drug test and will have to serve a 10 game suspension before playing in a Celtic uniform. I have posted this video of Miles in a previous post, but it seems relevant again



The best thing for Boston fans to do right now is to be skeptical, and be surprised if/when Miles pans out. Nevertheless, he can only gain from this situation, from a basketball and financial standpoint.

Thoughts on Shawn Livingston: Shaun Livingston is another player coming off of injury. A bad one. If you have not seen this video, I would highly recommend you brace yourself, and even if you have, I would say the same thing to you. I cringe every time I see this.



Livingston was one of the most promising guards in the NBA before his injury. He was expected to elevate the Clippers to the next level. I was not the only LA native who thought that either. When Livingston was at his peak, a lot of people in LA were talking about him. His devastating injury was a dark story in sports. A young and promising point guard who had a supposedly career ending injury on a freak accident. Livingston is on the Lakers summer team to try and make the squad. That will be a very tough job considering the Lakers just signed Sasha Vujacic to a $15 million contract, have Farmar and Fisher at point, and a guy named Kobe Bryant. That is a very crowded back court. I won't say that Coby Karl is a threat, but Coby Karl and the Laker's only draft pick in the second round, Joe Crawford from Kentucky, are trying to make the team, as well as a summer team loaded with former UCLA and USC grads. Point is, it will be competitive. When you sustain an injury like Livingston, NBA teams are reluctant to pull the trigger because of the uncertainty of how that player will bounce back. The Clippers had reportedly offered him a one year deal, but he declined. Now Clipper fans are screaming about the loyalty, but there is not much loyalty in a one year deal. The Suns and Nuggets have shown interest, but the Lakers appear to be Livingston's first choice. Livingston has been working out in Chicago with legendary trainer David Thorpe which is a great sign. The Lakers are in no need of a point guard, but it would not hurt to take a look at Livingston and possibly sign him. If Livingston plays well, one of the Laker guards (not Kobe, obviously, and probably not Fisher), could be on the trading block come February. Nothing like a little overload in a position to spur some competition and elevate everyone else's play. It is worth a shot.

Thoughts on J.R Smith: I have gone on a rant about J.R Smith and how he would flourish in a veteran environment. Unfortunately, Denver is not that place for him. He is seriously one of the most untapped talents in the NBA. Smith is one of those high school players who NBA scouts locked on to and decided that if he could be controlled, he would become a great NBA player. That is all true, except for the fact that George Karl's Nuggets are not a calming influence on Smith. He averaged 12.6 points and shot 40% from 3 point range for the Nuggets. At 22 years old, he still has a long career ahead of him, and if he reaches into his untapped potential, the rest of the league better take notice. I have a tremendous respect for J.R Smith and his game, and I predict that this multi-year deal will be the start of something good for him. This could be the making of a new star.

Izzy

picture sources: theassociation.blogs.com (first), jamd.com (second), atibaphoto.com (third), sportsillustrated.com,