Drilling Down: Why We Love Jeremy Lin

By now, we've all had a healthy dose of Jeremy Lin coverage. Some of us may have had our fill by now, but admitting thatpublicly would hurt your chances at running for The Presidency in 2028. Enjoy the Jeremy Lin train because it seems like it is just getting started. We've watched the media look at him with a raised eyebrow from his 25-point game against the Nets, to his play-for-play match against John Wall, to his 38-point game against the Lakers, to a teeth-gritting win against the T-Wolves. Now he's sitting at 5-0 while he has been a major contributor in the rotation, and 4-0 as a starter. There are no questions about Amare and Linbeing able to co-exist on the same court, but Melo's return poses the biggest threat to Lin's run. Luckily, Melo will be the whipping boy for the media and the NYK fans if Lin starts to cool off. When was the last time that a superstar would be the castaway for an NBA after-thought? That is something everyone is going to be paying close attention to. Lin has the support of the organization, fans, and team.

We're watching something great here. I think that we can all agree upon that. We've seen Lin execute the pick-and-roll with confidence and precision, drive hard to the basket, make big plays down the stretch, and put to rest the doubts about his shooting. His basketball intelligence and athleticism have been proven on the court. His days in the D-League are long behind him, and he has shown that he can lead one of the NBA's

biggest teams. For purposes of my post here, I'm not going to break that down any further. I'm more interested in the "Why?" aspect of Jeremy Lin. Why has the country taken notice of Lin? It's something that I've taken a lot of time to think about, and something that I feel we're all connected to.

The answer to that question is not as simple as some have made it out to be. The easy answer is one that a sports fan will tell you, "Well, he is an underdog story." To me, the answer is one step further than that. We can all see something in Lin that we see in ourselves. His story was only known to hardcore basketball fans before 2 weeks ago, but his story is well known to us now. Whether it is a long-shot school we applied to, a team we made, a business we started, etc. We've all felt that the world was against us at one point. When we overcome those obstacles, we take pride in our success knowing that something that wasn't supposed to happen to us turned out in our favor. We're watching a portion of our lives through Jeremy Lin.

To date, no one can really explain why a California All-State player in high school was passed up by virtually every major D-1 program in the country or why every NBA team passed up on him

during the draft even though he brought Harvard's team to prominence and broke records left and right. Could it be true? Supposed basketball geniuses, scouts, coaches, and general managers all passed up on Jeremy Lin? All the signs pointed to him being an NBA player, but they seemed to have just been ignored. Mike Breen reported on Friday's game against the Lakers that the Knicks trainers worked Lin out in Rochester, NY and said that he had some of the best agility they had ever seen. Still not good enough to draft him. He torched John Wall at the NBA's Summer League, and that was good enough for him to land a roster spot in Golden State. Problem was, they have quite a bit of depth at the point guard spot in GS, so he didn't have his chance. You know the rest of the story from there, but what went wrong? Why did he get passed up so many times when he clearly had NBA caliber talent? Drafting is an imprecise science as we all know, but Lin's case seems too obvious. We'll all be asking that question, but James Dolan and the rest of the Knicks management can rest easy k

nowing that they made the right gamble. D'Antoni can rest easy knowing that his hail mary decision to put Lin in the game against the Nets may have saved his job.

We respect his perseverance, dedication, and attitude above anything else. Rejection after rejection is tough enough for any person's mentality, but Lin's persistence is a model that we aspire to have. That is why we love this story. That is why we'll all keep rooting for this to continue. That is why people have come out with scores of T-shirts, renditions of "Lin-(insert word)", promotions, posters, trading cards, articles, and TV coverage of Lin. He is living proof of the age-old adage "Hard work pays off".

There is more to this story from a perspective not everyone can relate to, and not everyone wants to talk about. Well, lets just get it out there now. Ready? Ok...lets say it all together, "Jeremy Lin is an Asian-American." This is a perspective that I can obviously

write from a first-hand perspective on, and a major reason why I, along with so many other Asians in the US and around the world, can relate to Lin. The numbers seem to suggest that Asians are an underrepresented group in the NBA. A lot of people have asked me during this historic performance, well, what about Yao Ming? Why wasn't there this same following behind Yao? For me, it isn't even comparable. Yao is the exception. 7 foot 5 inches tall weighing in around 3 bills is not something that the majority of Asians can relate to. Along with that, Yao is a foreigner. Half a world away from the norms, culture, and customs that American-born Asians live with today. Lin, for the most part, is an atypical NBA player in physical stature. He is attainable in that respect.

Jeremy Lin is different than any other player of Asian descent that the league has seen. He is American born. A first generation Asian player that achieved success in the face of near impossible odds. He is from Palo Alto, a place known more for Stanford, Facebook, Apple, Google, and countless other tech companies, not producing NBA talent. He went to Harvard, a place that is known for claiming Presidents, Noble Prize Winners, scholars, and entrepreneurs as alumni, not NBA players. When it comes down to it, Jeremy Lin has broken stereotypes commonly placed on Asians with his background. That is something that we can take pride in regardless of your racial background, sexual orientation, or religious preference. He stands as a symbol of breaking down those racial stereotypes and boundaries. He is proving that he belongs in a place where many thought he didn't belong, and this is something that we've all felt at one point or another in our life.

We must give credit to Lin for handling the scrutiny with grace and humility because he has every right to throw it right back in the faces of everyone who doubted him. We're watching something relatable to all of us. If he falters, the media may come down on him hard because that is what they do, and that is what sells. As true fans of sports, we're a bit more informed than that. Fans know that no matter what happens in his career down the line, we'll remember that he inspired us, motivated us, and taught us through his life story and his play on the court.

Stay tuned. This just might be the start.

-Izzy

Top 5 Story Lines of this NBA Season

With the NBA season right around the corner, there is definitely something to be said about every single team in the league, but I've managed to narrow it down to the top 5 in my mind. Here are the most intriguing story lines of this NBA season.

#5: Boston's Aging Big 3

Has the window officially shut? Rajon Rondo is obviously offended and disgruntled that he was dangled in front of New Orleans during the Chris Paul saga. He's the glue to that team. It has to play a role in the way that team comes together this season. With a veteran lineup and leadership, I imagine they will be professionals and continue moving forward with the offseason as a distant memory. It's also going to be interesting to see how Doc Rivers manages all of the minutes for this team. KG also has a massive salary this year, and the Boston faithful will be hoping he can live up to it.

#4: The Entire Western Conference

The West is as wide open as it has been in a long time. There are a

few teams that can compete for a Finals spot this year. The Lakers, Clippers, Thunder, Spurs, and Mavs are contenders for a spot, but the gap between those teams is not as wide as it has been. The Lakers and Mavs both downgraded this offseason, the Clippers upgraded, the Spurs are almost unchanged, and the Thunder have another year of experience under their belt. The offseason in the Western Conference (Chris Paul) is a forecast for the season.

#3: Dwight Howard

The Nets, Lakers, and Mavs are on

Howard's short list. The Nets seem to have been taken out of the running for Howard as of now because Lopez went down today. Without a third team in the mix, don't expect any of these teams to be able to make a deal straight up. We'll hear it every single time he steps on the court in front of a national audience. I feel for the Orlando fans and organization because until something definitive happens, Howard's future will overshadow anything that happens with the Magic.

#2: Moves the Lakers will make

All the Laker faithful are still shell-shocked from the "Stern-Gate" episode we just experienced. They are stuck looking across the hallway at the Clippers, and their prized target is standing in Red and White. The Lakers gave up Lamar Odom for essentially nothing, and replaced him with a Troy Murphy who hasn't been relevant since his last season as a Pacer in 2009-2010. They signed a fringe NBA player in Josh McRoberts and they have 2nd round draft picks that would have already made plans with their agent to go to Europe when the NBA season started any season prior to this one. They passed on signing Baron Davis and Chauncey Billups to upgrade the point guard spot, and a Dwight Howard trade looks far-fetched at this point. A major trade

involving the Lakers would shake things up significantly. Lakers fans are cross-armed and tapping their feet looking at Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss.

#1: The Heat's Championship Run

The Heat are the clear favorite to win the 2012 championship. They have a steady veteran leader with Shane Battier who will give them an incredible defensive presence and outside threat. They still have the same needs at the Center and Point Guard spot, but that doesn't seem to be a concern for anyone at this point. The house fell down on Lebron in the Finals last year, and the whole world watched. The pressure on Miami's Big 3 will be incredible this year, with the spotlight being brightest on #6. If they come up short this year, the criticism will be harsher than he's ever felt in his life. It's a task that Lebron signed up for when he made 'The Decision', and it's one that he will have to complete before his legacy as one of the Game's Greatest is solidified. There is no question that it's their year to lose at this point.

It's great to pick up right where we left off last season. Enjoy it.

Izzy

Top 5 Story Lines of this NBA Season

With the NBA season right around the corner, there is definitely something to be said about every single team in the league, but I've managed to narrow it down to the top 5 in my mind. Here are the most intriguing story lines of this NBA season.

#5: Boston's Aging Big 3

Has the window officially shut? Rajon Rondo is obviously offended and disgruntled that he was dangled in front of New Orleans during the Chris Paul saga. He's the glue to that team. It has to play a role in the way that team comes together this season. With a veteran lineup and leadership, I imagine they will be professionals and continue moving forward with the offseason as a distant memory. It's also going to be interesting to see how Doc Rivers manages all of the minutes for this team. KG also has a massive salary this year, and the Boston faithful will be hoping he can live up to it.

#4: The Entire Western Conference

The West is as wide open as it has been in a long time. There are a

few teams that can compete for a Finals spot this year. The Lakers, Clippers, Thunder, Spurs, and Mavs are contenders for a spot, but the gap between those teams is not as wide as it has been. The Lakers and Mavs both downgraded this offseason, the Clippers upgraded, the Spurs are almost unchanged, and the Thunder have another year of experience under their belt. The offseason in the Western Conference (Chris Paul) is a forecast for the season.

#3: Dwight Howard

The Nets, Lakers, and Mavs are on

Howard's short list. The Nets seem to have been taken out of the running for Howard as of now because Lopez went down today. Without a third team in the mix, don't expect any of these teams to be able to make a deal straight up. We'll hear it every single time he steps on the court in front of a national audience. I feel for the Orlando fans and organization because until something definitive happens, Howard's future will overshadow anything that happens with the Magic.

#2: Moves the Lakers will make

All the Laker faithful are still shell-shocked from the "Stern-Gate" episode we just experienced. They are stuck looking across the hallway at the Clippers, and their prized target is standing in Red and White. The Lakers gave up Lamar Odom for essentially nothing, and replaced him with a Troy Murphy who hasn't been relevant since his last season as a Pacer in 2009-2010. They signed a fringe NBA player in Josh McRoberts and they have 2nd round draft picks that would have already made plans with their agent to go to Europe when the NBA season started any season prior to this one. They passed on signing Baron Davis and Chauncey Billups to upgrade the point guard spot, and a Dwight Howard trade looks far-fetched at this point. A major trade

involving the Lakers would shake things up significantly. Lakers fans are cross-armed and tapping their feet looking at Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss.

#1: The Heat's Championship Run

The Heat are the clear favorite to win the 2012 championship. They have a steady veteran leader with Shane Battier who will give them an incredible defensive presence and outside threat. They still have the same needs at the Center and Point Guard spot, but that doesn't seem to be a concern for anyone at this point. The house fell down on Lebron in the Finals last year, and the whole world watched. The pressure on Miami's Big 3 will be incredible this year, with the spotlight being brightest on #6. If they come up short this year, the criticism will be harsher than he's ever felt in his life. It's a task that Lebron signed up for when he made 'The Decision', and it's one that he will have to complete before his legacy as one of the Game's Greatest is solidified. There is no question that it's their year to lose at this point.

It's great to pick up right where we left off last season. Enjoy it.

Izzy

Chris Paul to the Clippers Analysis

The saga is finally over, and Chris Paul is actually moving to LA this time, except he'll be in a Clippers uniform. Here are my quick thoughts on the trade.

Any time you can add a superstar alongside one of the most exciting/promising young players in the league, you've done a good thing. They gave up some good assets, but I think that the Clippers made a step forward in this trade overall. Chris Paul's impact is understood by everyone, but together with the recent Billups and Caron Butler signing, they look dangerous. DeAndre Jordan has a bright future in the league, and he was obviously overpaid (different story for a different post), but the Clippers spent big because they probably anticipated that they were going to trade Kaman. This is a playoff team without a doubt. Championship caliber? Not yet. They are one player away.

One move that I really think was talked about extensively was about giving Eric Gordon up in the trade. I've never really been completely sold on Gordon dating back to his days in Indiana. He's a great scorer, no doubt about that, but he's a very one-dimensional player. A shoot-first guy that hasn't reached his potential in the passing game. Playing alongsi

de Jarrett Jack, another natural scorer may not be an ideal fit.

Ironically, Al-Farouq Aminu was part of this deal as well. Aminu was a guy that Chris Paul mentored and spent a lot of time with on his trips back to Wake to train with the team while Aminu was at the school. I think Aminu has a tremendous potential to be a top flight rebounder in the league, but he's not going to be a premier scorer. There is probably more hype around him than real substance to his game. I'm sure it is PR for New Orleans fans. Either way, there will be an increase in his stats from his rookie year (5.6ppg and 3.3rebs) due to his increased playing time.

The Chris Kaman and unprotected 1st round Minnesota pick were great moves. Kaman is a good "bandaid Center" while the team looks to rebuild. The former All-Star has battled injuries his entire career, but that isn't much of an issue. Considering there are only 66 games, and he has averaged about 50 games over the course of his career, I think the Hornets can get their worth. The real value of Kaman will be when his massive $11 million salary comes off their books at the end of the year. That will give the Hornets added cap room to make legitimate signings. Couple that with one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, and you've got yourself a solid starting point. Imagine if that Minnesota pick turns out to be a #1 pick?

Chris Paul will be revitalized with this trade. It's going to be an incredible combo to see Griffin and Paul play off each other. Management has a pretty big window to grab another star to pair with both players in their prime. Lakers fans have always laughed and brushed the Clippers off, but as soon as the trade was announced, everyone stopped laughing as if the principal had just walked in. Suddenly, not just Lakers fans, but the entire league is taking this team seriously. We'll see them nightly on SportsCenter, and we'll move definitely see them beyond 66 games this year.

Izzy

NBA Chaos and Chris Paul Trade Veto Reactions

I've contemplated bringing back the blog for a while now. The recent NBA developments have shown me that I have too many opinions to vent to too many different people, that it's easier to put it all on this forum. With that said, DishingDimes is back!

Has there ever been a situation like this in pro sports? Has there ever been a situation like thisat your work? School organization? Fantasy League? The answer is probably 'No'. This doesn't happen in legitimate organizations.

I'm going to quickly try and dissect 3 interesting issues that are in this Chris Paul situation.

1) Dan Gilbert leading a group of owners to lobby David Stern to veto the trade.

This has ruined David Stern's legacy. He let a group of owners tell him what to do, and when to do it. What trade can go through now? We've found out that the league can veto any trade they don't feel "makes basketball sense"? They lost their purpose and role in the league when they stepped in to buy the Hornets, and now they've showed why. From what we understand, the owners were upset that the Lakers were saving upwards of $57 million in cap space. Really? Is that what this comes down to? We just got out of a lockout where we touched up the system to discourage big spending (this should have been called the LA/Miami/NY/Dallas Clause), and the Lakers try to get their books in order only to be smashed by the league. This was a win-win for all parties involved, and a deal that would have spared the Hornets a Melo-Nuggets fate. What kind of partnership would ever crush their associates for saving money? The example I've been using with everyone I've talked to is if you bought a company-owned car, and your colleagues looked at you and said, "No, don't think you can do that. You're getting way too great of a deal!" That type of thing doesn't happen, and if it did, you'd probably be pretty close to having an Office Freakout.

Bottom line: The only way this gets resolved and the NBA can salvage any sense of reputation is to reverse this trade. If Dwight gets traded to the Nets later today, I think everyone will be raising an eyebrow.

2) The reality that players and teams involved will have to go through an incredibly awkward period.

This will undoubtedly effect play in an overwhelmingly negative way. Lamar's already tweeted that he doesn't feel comfortable coming to training camp. An unhappy team behind closed doors already looks out of sync on the court. I can't imagine what a publicly unhappy team will look like on a court. Did we already forget when the Hornets traded Chandler to the Thunder only to to be turned down by the OKC training staff, and sent back to the Hornets? Don't think anyone was comfortable with that.

This also sets an awful precedent for future players like Chris Paul. He went through this whole process with incredible class and respect to the Hornets and the city of New Orleans. If he dragged his team and city through the mud, would the outcome have been the same?

What about Dell Demps? Everyone thought he was at the helm of the Hornets, and he just got smacked in the face by the league. Undermining someone's position of power is one of the most embarrassing things that can happen to someone, and it just happened very publicly. Not sure how he recovers from this without resigning and going elsewhere.

3) Still holding out hope that the league will respond appropriately.

I still have one ounce of hope that the league will come to their senses, and reverse their decisions before we go down a treacherous road. It doesn't even need to come with any explanation. The general consensus among basketball fans seems to be outrage that an administration would intervene to stop movement. It undermines business to an incredible extent, and with all of the backlash, I think the league might take a step back and change their stance. If you're an NBA fan, it's understandable that you take this as a slap in the face. Lets just hope that they'll give us some ice to heal from the wounds.

Good to be back,

Izzy

Grading the Recent Moves

There are a few recent moves that have caught my eye. The Heat are trying to put players around their dream trio, the Bucks are quietly making moves, the Rockets added some "Yao Insurance", and the Warriors made a move for David Lee. Lets grade these recent moves and do some quick analysis on the impact it is going to have on the teams.

Zydrunas Ilguaskas to Heat: That will complete the Heat starting 5. I'm still not sold that Z is good enough to be an impact player. He will provide a great inside presence, and having Bosh alongside him at PF will be a formidable lineup. Z is one of the best shot blockers in the league, but his offensive production has fallen off. He averaged only 7.4ppg and 5.4 rebs last season. Down from his career averages of 17.8ppg and 7.7 rebs. Just like every other player on the Heat not named Bosh, Wade, or Lebron, the pressure will not be on Z to score. He will be asked to provide defensive presence and to rebound the ball. Any way you look at it, it will be tough for teams to deal with this front-line.Zydrunas Ilgauskas to Heat: Following your superstar is never a bad idea. Big Z was fiercely loyal to Cleveland, but just like everyone else, he realized thatCleveland is in big trouble. He is the big man that the Heat needed. His presence is going to be huge for the Heat. It will be an uphill battle for Z to keep up with the Big 3 up and down the court, but in half court sets, he will fit right in.

Grade: A (if Z can be efficient on offense)

Mike Miller to the Heat: I wrote in my post about the Lebron move that Mike Miller was a definite target. He got some run with the USA team before the Beijing Olympics in 2008. Miller is a solid shooter who has struggled with consistency the last few seasons in the bottom cellar of the NBA. Miller is clearly a player who needs to be motivated. We saw his averages drop significantly in 08-09 with the T'wolves. Miller's career averages were 13.7ppg, but went down to 10.9 ppg last season with the Wolves and Wizards. He shot 48% from 3-pt range last season which is 8% higher than his career average, and he also improved his rebounding from 5.1 to 6.2 per game. This shows that he is capable of improving his produ

ctivity when he makes a commitment to it. Stats aside, Miller is a huge asset for the Heat. He will be the beneficiary countless double teams and drive and dish penetration from the Big 3. Miller's defensive capacity leaves a lot to be desired, but if he gets beat, he will have a lot of help. His job in Miami will be simple: make shots to keep the defense honest. Overall, a great pickup for the Heat. Miller probably took a bit of a paycut to be the Heat, but after conversations with the Lakers, it was clear that Miller wanted to have a chance to win.

Grade: A-

Drew Gooden to the Bucks: This is a good move for the Bucks. They get another big man who can defend the low post to team up alongside Andrew Bogut (assuming he is fully healed). I don't want to delve too deep into stats with Gooden because his presence is more what he brings to the Bucks. He is going to be a defensive presence to block the lane as much as possible. If he can grab 10 rebounds per game and block 1.5 shots per game, the Bucks will have gotten their value from him.

Grade: B

Corey Maggette to the Bucks: Solid move for the Bucks also. An athletic player who gets to the free throw line. He is a pure scorer and will be a great complement to Brandon Jennings' own

athleticism and ability to get to the basket. It

gives the Bucks a great threat to use Delfino or Maggette at SF. One of those players could move to SG also. It is an incredible move for the Bucks to upgrade their lineup. Their starting lineup now has an incredible combination of threats. If Michael Redd comes back healthy for the start of the season, they will have even more depth. The starting lineup depth could be Brandon Jennings, John Salmons/Michael Redd, Carlos Delfino/Corey Maggette, Ersan Ilyasova/Drew Gooden (If Larry Sanders can develop he will also have a spot too), and Andrew Bogut. Not bad. Maggette adds another level of offense for them. A solid player who puts up points quickly. I'd like to see more commitment by Maggette on defense. He had one of the best seasons of his career last year in terms of ppg and FG%, and if he can play solid defense, he's going to be a threat. Playing under Scott Skiles will mean that defense is a requirement, not an option.

Grade: B+

Brad Miller to Rockets: Horrible move for the Rockets. They are worried about Yao's injury, but they get a guy who is just as injury prone. Miller is clearly on the decline in his career. He does stretch the floor with his ability to shoot from long range, but I'm not convinced that he can be an impact player anymore. They gave him MLE type money, but he hasn't proven that he can be a game changer. The main concern here seems to be that Brad Miller will slow down their transition game. Aaron Brooks is an extremely promising young player who is one of the fastest guards in the league. Brooks pushes the ball hard, and it helps speed the game up for the Rockets. This was the best offense for the Rockets when Yao was not in the lineup. Throwing Brad Miller into the mix won't give the Rockets the opportunity to get in transition as fast. Kevin Martin and Aaron Brooks will be running the show in the backcourt for the Rockets and they are almost sure to benefit from having a big man in the post, but will also be hindered by it. Rick Adelman knows what Brad Miller can do, but I'm afraid that his ability from the Sacramento days has waned.

Grade: C-

David Lee to Warriors: Moving in the right direction for the Warriors. A young dynamic player like Stephen Curry paired with a double-double machine is going to go well for the Warriors. Lee proved that he can't be the #1 option on a team in New York. It will be up to the Warriors to get another impact player to put alongside Curry and Lee before anyone starts talking playoffs for this team. They Warriors gave up a lot of their young core, but none of those players were irreplaceable. Ekpe Udoh is going to be a work in progress for this season, and won't be a credible threat until he can prove that he can hold his own down in the post. For now, it will be just David Lee. With some of the recent moves Golden State has made, this has to rank up with one of the best in a while. A big bounce back from draft night.

Grade: B- (overall performance in the offseason thus far)

-Izzy

Lebron to Miami: Quick Thoughts and Reactions

The wait is finally over. Lebron is going to become a part of the Miami Heat. I wrote yesterday about the different scenarios for the Heat. As of now, there are a few reactions I have to this news.

The first, I feel awful for the fans in Cleveland. I have a few friends from Cleveland and I know that this is heart-wrenching for them. This has to be one of the most devastating blows, if not THE most devastating blow in Cleveland sports history. I feel for them.

Second, Pat Riley and the rest of the front office can celebrate, but not for long. The key to a championship lies beyond Bosh, Wade, and Lebron, it lies in the role players around the team. They do NOT have a mid-level exception (different than what I wrote yesterday). Riley will have to fill 9 roster spots with veteran-minimum exceptions, and their 3 rookies. Check out my analysis on my post from yesterday's "With Lebron" scenario for further breakdown.

Lastly, chemistry between the 3 players is going to be the most fascinating aspect of the season. 3 superstars only have 1 basketball to go around. It will definitely be an interesting transition with the 3. Lebron is going to have to give up a lot of offense which will be tough because he has been the go-to guy his entire career. Wade and Bosh will benefit from Lebron's presence. Bosh will most likely see more isolations in the post. Wade will be able to roam free and do what he does best, create shots. I think that life will be much easier for both Bosh and Wade, and getting to the basket will come easy. I wouldn't be surprised if Lebron's ppg went down drastically and apg went up drastically. As of now, based on pure talent, they are good enough to make it to the Finals. Can they put it together to beat the defending champion Lakers? That is the real test. May not happen this year, but it will almost certainly happen in the next few years.

Couldn't be a better offseason for the NBA this season.

Wade and Bosh to Miami: Where the Heat should go from here

Two-thirds of the top 3 free agents in the biggest free agency class in history have agreed to play in Miami. Bosh and Wade will be on South Beach with Lebron's future still in doubt, but with the growing sense that The King will resign with Cleveland. Lets take a look at what the Heat should do from here under a "With Lebron" scenario and a "Without Lebron" scenario. Since the actual salary cap won't be announced until later tonight, we'll just assume that the cap will be set at around $54.4 million. We'll also assume that Wade and Bosh are making the maximum although they've said they would take less money. This will let us examine the money scenario from the worst-case for Miami.

With Lebron: The Heat will have to do some tinkering to get Lebron to Miami, but there are a few teams who would probably be willing to take on Beasley. Those teams would most likely be the Timberwolves, Kings, or Clippers. They would also probably ask for one of Miami's future draft picks which would be a small price to pay for Lebron coming into town. So lets assume that Beasley is out of the picture and traded away. This leaves Lebron signing with the Heat at the max $16.5 million. So, we have Wade, Bosh, Lebron, and Chalmers under contract for the Heat. If the cap is around $54.4 million then the heat have about $485,000 left over to build the rest of the team. They have 3 2nd round picks in Dexter Pittman, Jarvis Varnardo, and Da'Sean Butler. They can sign all of these players for the rookie minimum which would be closer to $450,000 per player.
In addition, they would have to spend their veteran minimum on any veteran looking to contend for a title. A guy like Juwan Howard would make sense or, wait for it...Shaq. I know, the Shaq thing didn't work with King James last year, but bringing Shaq off the bench would be a good way to change the pace for Miami. Shaq is also a very capable defender in the sense that he is a body that makes it imposing for any player to drive the lane or for a bigger body like Dwight Howard. The Heat could also go after Randy Foye in a backup role at PG although he is a true SG. Foye only averaged 1.3 turnovers in the 24 minutes he averaged last season with the Wizards. What about Allen Iverson? Veteran minimum for a guy who can score and play a multitude of different roles. Shaq and Iverson, on top of Bosh and Wade, how many tickets would that sell? Wow. I also hear that Quentin Richardson will probably resign and the Heat will retain Joel Anthony as well. If that happens, they will have filled significant holes with a very respectable roster that will compete for many years to come.
So, lets recap who the Heat could have in the "With Lebron" scenario:
Starters: Chalmers, Wade, James, Bosh, and Brad Miller
Bench: Juwan Howard (or Shaq), Dexter Pittman, Jarvis Varnado, Da'Sean Butler, Randy Foye, Quentin Richardson, and Joel Anthony
This roster gives them an amazing core. With Lebron, Wade, and Bosh, the Heat will have solid role players who can give them decent minutes with some decent contribution. Lets be honest, at the end of the day, if you have Lebron, Wade, and Bosh there isnt much else you need. This is a championship contending team. No question.

Without Lebron: As the roster stands now, Bosh and Wade are the cornerstones with Beasley and Chalmers rounding out the last 2. This leaves the Heat with about $12 million left in cap room. The Heat could go after a true center with this money. The only player that really fits that mold right now is Brendan Haywood. He made $6 million last year, and he didn't have a great post season last year. I'd expect the Heat to give him close to that amount. Lets say the Heat get generous and they know that Haywood is a double-double threat who is a big body and is good for a couple blocks a game as well as being in his prime, and they give him $7 million. That leaves the Heat with $5 million to spend under the cap.

They could split this $5 million among a few other free agents to upgrade their backup point guard spot, shooting guard spot, or power forward. Roger Mason would be a good fit here at $2.5 million. He is a scorer who can give a spark off the bench. In San Antonio he even got to run the point guard spot for a bit of time. I think that Mason would be a refreshing player off the bench when it is time for Dwade to sit or if they wanted to move Wade to the 1 when Chalmers went out, Mason would fit right in at the 2. Another player that would be Will Bynum to compete with Chalmers for the point guard spot. He is a scoring point guard who has shown that he can distribute as well. He would be a nice piece for the Heat.

The Heat will sign the 3 rookies Varnardo, Pittman, and Butler. They will also pursue a couple veteran free agents who will play for the minimum (as explained above), and then hope to re-sign Quentin Richardson and Joel Anthony. It is also worth noting that the Heat don't need a big name point guard because I still think they believe in Chalmers. I think that with Bosh in the low post, Chalmers will be able to distribute the ball a lot more and get more open shots. He should flourish in this new team.

Here is how the team looks under the "Without Lebron" scenario: starters: Chalmers, Wade, Bosh, Beasley and Joel Anthony
Bench: Will Bynum, Roger Mason, Beasley, Varnardo, Pittman, Butler, Quentin Richardson, and Allen Iverson (just for fun) with another veteran minimum.

Neither scenario looks too bad. Both are significant upgrades.

Steve Blake to Lakers thoughts

The Lakers finally landed the point guard they have been targeting for over 3 years, Steve Blake. The Maryland star signed a 4 year $16 million contract with the Lakers which is about the same amount the Lakers were targeting him for using their MLE a couple years back. This signing is something that the Lakers desperately needed in this offseason, and allows Blake to stay in the same city he was traded to in February except that he is playing in purple and gold as opposed to red and white.

With the almost certain departure of the Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown, that leaves the Lakers' backcourt with only Sasha and most likely Derek Fisher. What should happen is that Fisher will signa a 1 year deal with the Lakers and truly mentor Steve Blake at point guard for most of the season. They will slowly let Blake take over more of the duties as the season progresses. This is Mitch Kupchak and the rest of the Lakers' front office's grand scheme and it has been the plan for a while. It upgrades the Lakers' backcourt which has been a soft spot for the team since Gary Payton was the starter in 2004, and it gives Blake a chance to learn the offense as well as be slowly integrated into a starting role. A perfect situation from a guy who has been thrown on mediocre teams and asked to play starters minutes and lead the team to wins. Jackson and his coaching staff have shown that they have been able to consistently mentor guys and develop them well into their careers.

Blake is a great distributor who is athletic and can hit jumpers. His skill set seems to fit very well within a triangle offense as it revolves around passing and movement. Blake is less of a scoring point guard, but he can create his own shot which is critical in the Triangle Offense, and that should work well along Pau and Bynum in the middle. As soon as the defense collapses in the middle, Blake will receive the ball back and he can create or distribute very effectively. He has shown that he is a danger from the 3 point range or driving the lane. Blake is an athletic point guard who will be able to hang with the top point guards in the league, but he will need to improve his defense if he is going to be an impact player in crucial situations.

All in all, this was a solid signing for the Lakers and it helps put Lakers fans at ease while the last remaining details of this offseason get sorted out. Fisher is widely regarded to sign for 1 year which should answer any remaining questions about the point guard position. Farmar, Shannon Brown, and Josh Powell are the last pieces that may change for the Lakers. Signing Blake was a definitive statement that the Lakers are moving in a different direction than Farmar, and Farmar has made it clear the he wants to be a starter in the league. It will be a few weeks until the dust settles, and most of the inner workings can happen with little media attention due to the free agency circus surrounding the highest NBA profile free agents. Until then, the Lakers know that their point guard situation issue is addressed, and most importantly, their coaching issue is addressed. Sleep well Lakers fans.

Money Doesn't Buy Championships

We're 5 days into the free agency period and we've already seen 4 major players resign with their home teams. Dirk Nowitzki, Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, and Paul Pierce are off the market with huge contracts and huge aspirations. I'm wondering how the liberal spending of these teams will impact their franchise. I'm skeptical about all of these signings except for 1.

It is worth noting that the first two on this list were purely business decisions because the Hawks and Mavs weren't far enough under the cap to lure a big name free agent. So, rather than rebuild and start from scratch, they decided to keep what they had and hope for the best.


Joe Johnson: Johnson was clearly a benefactor of all of the hoopla about this summer's free agency class. As Johnson's name kept coming up as one of the main targets on teams' free agent wish list, it was almost certain that he was going to cash in on all the positive publicity. He did, and the Hawks find themselves right where they left off after losing to the Magic in historic fashion in the second round of the 2010 playoffs. Johnson's deal is worth $119 million over 6 years.
Don't get me wrong. Johnson is a great player. With averages of 21.9ppg, 4.9 assts, and a steal, he is an upper echelon player in the league, however, these types of averages don't seem to work for the Hawks. Their young core has yet to make a splash in the playoffs since taking the 2008 Boston Celtics team to 7 games. Simply put, this team isn't good enough. They needed a surefire player who could lead them. Joe Johnson hasn't been outspoken enough to bring his team to the next level. He doesn't posess the killer instinct that #1 options on championship calibur teams have. I'm also worried about Johnson's inconsistency. There are games where he looks unstoppable, and games where he is more than forgettable. Undoubtedly, he is a #2 option on an elite team, which explains why the Knicks and Bulls went after Johnson first so that they could include him in their sales pitch to Lebron, Bosh, and Wade.
The bright side for the Hawks is if they can reintegrate Josh Childress after his stint in Greece and new coach Larry Drew can help develop Johnson as a leader, they might be able to compete for a top spot in the East. If only they could have had Chris Paul instead of Marvin Williams...this would have been so much easier.

Dirk Nowitzki: Clearly loyalty played a huge factor in this decision. Mark Cuban believed in Dirk when the entire city of Dallas was crushing the team for passing up on Paul Pierce. They lived through the ups and downs together and Cuban has never backed down from defending Dirk. There was no other choice for Dirk except to go back if Dallas extended the offer. They did, and the Mavs will be putting on a very similar act that we have seen many times before. Again, this team is amazing on paper. They got their versatile swingman in Shawn Marion, one of the best point guards in NBA history with Jason Kidd, an annual contender for 6th man of the year in Jason Terry, and a constant influx of new raw talent coming in every year. Their only hole right now is filling the center spot due to the uncertainty with Brendan Haywood's free agency and the almost certain waiving of Dampier.
Dirk has shown that he is an elite player in the league, however, he has not shown that he can take his team over the top. He has a solid supporting cast and a willing owner who is ready to spend whatever it takes to win, but Nowitzki hasn't produced in big moments. After their famous flameout in the first round in the 2007 playoffs, to Golden State, a series that I still defend to this day as the biggest upset in sports history, the Mavs have never quite regained their footing. They lost this year again in the first round to the Spurs which fuels the fire against Dirk. In the end, the Mavs figured that there is too much history with Dirk and this franchise to give up on him now. If somehow the Mavs won the title with Dirk as the lead man, it would mean so much more than to bring in a new franchise player and start over. As it stands now, the team is virtually the same team that has left the floor before June every year since 2006, and has never come up with the trophy in hand. I don't see that changing, and neither do you.

Rudy Gay: By far the worst signing of the free agency period. I'm actually still having convulsions from time to time thinking about this. Lets put this in perspective, here we have a guy who has never brought his team to the playoffs, never been an All-Star, and never been a leader and is getting paid $80 million over 5 years. Not to mention that Gay isn't even definitively the best player on the Grizzlies. Granted, there are a ton of overpaid players in the league who aren't even worth close to what they get paid, but that is a reason for the Grizzlies to take a step back and learn from this mistakes.
If you look at it from the Grizzlies' perspective, they are just happy that they retained Gay. They weren't going to land any big name free agent so they just had a pile of money lying around and decided to spend it where they knew they were going to get some value. Gay brings great energy to the floor, he is a top tier athlete and a proven scorer. Definitely someone you want to have on your team, but he is commonly referred to as a "poor man's Danny Granger", and not your top 30 players to give the ball to in the last 1:30 of a close game. In the overall landscape of the league, this signing is pretty meaningless, but sometimes it just makes you wonder why you couldn't have been a standout player at a major school and land on a small market team with a ton of money in a year before the Collective Bargaining Agreement would be renegotiated. Damn.

Paul Pierce: Of course, this is the best signing so far. The Celtics believe that they were one Kendrick Perkins injury away from a Game 7 victory over the Lakers. Why would you mess with something like that? Danny Ainge had a no-brainer here. Pierce is their clutch player who gets to the foul line, has a versatile offensive game, and a solid defensive game. He has been the face of the franchise since he was drafted in 1996, and has been part of the rebuilding process through the late 90s until he won the Finals MVP in 2008. The Celtics are clearly contenders for the 2011 NBA title as long as they retain Ray Allen which is expected to happen. Resigning Pierce was just a formality. He is the one free agent who has proven he can win and deserves a raise from the team that has helped define his legacy. No arguments here. Just have to see if the Celtics can cash in this time. Most likely, this is the Celtics' last shot at it with this crew.

We've only just hit the surface of this free agency period. There is a lot more to come, and we're all hoping to be surprised.

-Izzy

We're back!

After almost a year hiatus, DishingDimes is back! We did the website domain thing and weren't pleased with the results. A few other factors contributed to us leaving the site unmanaged, but recently we decided to bring it back.

Our epiphany was: "We are a basketball blog." Deep. I know. We overextended ourselves. As our site took off and we had followers all over the world and started networking with other major basketball blogs, we got ahead of ourselves and lost focus. Our goal is the same as when we started this thing in June of 2008 in our dorm rooms at Stanford and Wake Forest, to write about basketball. Our duty as fans and students of the game is to increase the freeflow of opinion and to talk about the sport as much as we can. That is the best thing for the game and the best thing that we can contribute. Phil and I are determined to do this thing again. We want to serve the readers and the game as much as we can. We appreciate all the support and inquiries about our blog and whether we were ever going to come back. Undoubtedly, that support factored heavily into our decision to start writing again. We will do our best to surpass your expectations.

-Izzy

It's up!

We got the new site up! In a short time, we will have dishingdimes.com be the actual domain name. Please subscribe or visit our new site frequently! We look forward to working on the new site. We will see you there.

Dishingdimes.com

Izzy and Phill

We are back!

The 2 month layoff from posting was not because we were lazy. Well...it could have been partially because of that. The most important reason for not posting was due to the fact that Phil and I have been working on a new website. The website will expand our blog from a simple blog to different topics including video debates and possibly podcasts. We are really excited about the expansion of the site. We appreciate all of your support. The site should be up in the coming days. I hope that you all will visit the site. Take care.

Izzy

Playoff Bullets

Here are my quick thoughts on the playoffs:

• The Nuggets have been the most surprising team in the playoffs thus far. Melo is making an image comeback. He is showing a lot of heart out there on the court. The Nuggets in general are playing inspired basketball. Nene is a force down in the middle and Kenyon Martin is the closest thing we have seen to "an enforcer" in recent memory. The Nuggets success, and George Karl's job, can all be traced back to Chauncey Billups. He has put this team on his back and showed them how to win. Chris "Birdman" Anderson and J.R Smith have become huge forces off the bench. I'd even go as far to say that the Nuggets have one of the top 3 benches in the league at this point. J.R Smith is an explosive scorer and Anderson is the hustle player you need to make the big block, get the big rebound, dive for the ball, or get the big dunk. What more can you ask for? This team is for real.
  

• Dirk Nowitski clearly cannot carry the Mavs alone. The Mavs will lose this series, and no one would be surprised if they got swept. The Mavs need to reload this offseason and go after a player who can play alongside Dirk. Josh Howard is a great player, but another big time scorer or a defender would take the Mavs a long way. Kidd will be a free agent this summer which means two things. 1) 20 million in space and 2) Cuban can stop running stats to prove that the Kidd trade was a good one. It was not. The Mavs need to go big this summer as Cuban is one of the only owners in the league who can afford to spend money. Chris Paul anyone?

• The Rockets will not go away easily. Everyone counted them out before this series even started. The series is sitting at 1-1 and the physical play shows no signs of tappering off. Blood has been drawn, elbows have been thrown, ejections have been handed out, and we have been treated to a series. This is the edge that Ron Artest brings. He brings a blue collar style of basketball to the Rockets who is ready to do the nitty gritty stuff that is essential to playoff success. I also don't want to hear that the Rockets are better without Tracy McGrady. I can assure you that Rick Adelman would love to see him out there as another offensive threat. Speaking of threats, the biggest threat to the Lakers is Shane Battier's defense. He has solidified that he is the best defender in the league against Kobe. Making Kobe work hard on every possession is as much as Adelman can ask for. Battier putting a hand right in Kobe's face is the most effective defensive strategy in basketball. Hands Down. This series is far from over.
  

• The Lakers were exposed in Game 1 against the Rockets. The time off showed how vulnerable the Lakers were to physical play. It also showed how tough the defense was on the interior which kept the Lakers bigs from going off. The perimeter defense was solid in game 1 which caused the Lakers to shoot 2/17. In game 2, the Lakers flipped the script and came out gunning. What is worrisome for the Lakers is they are not playing good enough defense. They seem to just be putting up volume scoring without commiting on the defensive end. Expect PJ to fix that before this series is over. There is a team in Colorado that is much further along on the defensive front than the Lakers have been this playoffs. This is also one series that the Lakers do not have a distinct size advantage. It is a struggle for the Lakers big men down low to check Yao Ming, and the penetration in the lane has not been easy. Lot of work to do here for the Lakers.
  
  
  
  

• The Magic will almost undoubtedly lose Alston for the next game. That will be a crushing blow to the Magic for game 3, but they can still win that game. In fact, they should beat the Celtics in the series. I don't see any reason why they lose this series. They outmatch the Celtics in size and if they limit their turnovers, this series should go to Orlando. Dwight Howard has to transform from class clown to proven team leader. This is the big test for the Magic. A series win against the C's will be a gigantic step for the organization. The encouraging thing is that this Magic team is essentially the same team as last year, and the improvement is drastic. I do think this is another series that goes to 7 games, but facing the Cavs in the next round is not something to look forward to. I think the Magic are the only team in the East who can legitimately challenge the Cavs. That series would be a treat for NBA fans. Orlando...please finish this.

• The Celtics are beat up. Fatigue has clearly played a role in this series, and will become an even bigger factor as the series goes on. Yeah yeah...defending champs. They can overcome anything. No. Please don't kid yourself. The Celtics need KG. That is the end of it. Here is an interesting thought experiment. Lets imagine KG never came to the Celtics. The Celtics now have Pierce, Allen, and Al Jefferson. Jefferson got injured at the end of the season. Would Jefferson have a better chance to come back during the playoffs than KG? Would the Celtics have won the championship last year with Jefferson instead of KG? Give that some serious thought. I think the Celtics would have still won the championship last year, and this year, Jefferson would probably be able to come back, or at the very least, have a better chance to come back than KG. This playoff season has brought the emergence of Rajon Rondo. He has lived up the potential that he has. The success of a healthy Celtics team rests on how well Rondo can play. He has 4 triple-doubles this playoff season, the first player since Jason Kidd. Rondo is for real. Injuries have decided this postseason in the East. A healthy Celtics team on the court means a very different outcome. Next year.
  

• The Cavs are playing flawless basketball. I'm wondering whether the Cavs are actually this good or their competition has been this bad. Lebron is the MVP and he is playing like it. There has been no legitimate defense against Lebron, and I don't know if such a thing is possible. The one concern for the Cavs is the lack of challenge for the Cavs. If you buy into the "Must be battle tested before the finals" menality, then no, the Cavs are not ready, and hopefully the Conference Finals will provide that test for the Cavs. If you buy into the "Bring on anything, and we are ready" menality then yes, the Cavs have what it takes to live up to any challenge. Not much else to say about the Cavs. Their play says all that needs to be said.

• The Hawks? Have fun on your summer vacation next week! This series is over.
  

Quick Playoff Predictions

Things have been hectic which is why I haven't been able to post in a while. I hope to get back to my normal posting routine now that things have cooled down.

Since the playoffs are upon us, I'm going to give a quick prediction on each series. We all know that the rounds before the Finals are just entertainment before the Cavs and Lakers play.

Eastern Conference

Cavs vs Pistons: The Pistons don't have a chance. Yes, the Pistons have a lot of experience, but experience does not matter when you are a sub-500 team going up against the team with the best record in the league and the player who will undoubtedly be named the MVP. Look for this series to be the only sweep all playoffs. Prediction: 4-0 Cavs

Celtics vs Bulls: This series will be a breeze for the Celtics. Of course, the big drama is losing KG for the playoffs. The Bulls still don't have the personnel to match up to the Celtics firepower. We will get a treat to see a two up-and-coming point guards in Rondo and Rose go up against each other. It will also be interesting to see the KG story unfold. Will he be on the bench as an emotional lift? Will it be too painful for him to be on the bench? Will he focus on rehabbing so he can possibly make a comeback later on in the playoffs? That is why everyone will pay attention to this series. It has more to do with the storyline than it does basketball. Prediction: Celtics 4-1

Magic vs Sixers: Again, not much to see here. The only weakness I see for the Magic is the health of Lewis and Turkoglu holding them back. Even without them healthy, the Magic have a lot more than the Sixers. Who is going to Dwight Howard? I bet Tony DiLeo has been asking that question since these matchups have been set. The Sixers barely edged out a Cavs team on the last night without any of their starters. Look for this series to be over quick. I do think the Magic are a little too inexperienced to effectively close teams out. This is also virtually the same team that gave the Pistons fits last playoffs. I could see the Sixers putting up a fight. Prediction: Magic 4-2

Hawks vs Heat: I really think the Hawks could sneak up on people. They took the Celtics to 7 games and then people started looking their way. The Hawks pretty much have the same roster as last season, and they have had some big wins this season. Just like many players (Robert Horry and James Posey) come out during the playoffs, I think we will see that with the Atlanta Hawks. They won't have it easy though. Dwyane Wade, the MVP candidate, is an overachieving team. Wade is good enough to single handedly win a series. Look for Wade to put this team on his back as he has all season and give the Hawks a lot of trouble. I think Wade will only be able to carry his team to a certain extent. Their inexperience under playoff conditions will cause them to drop 1 game at home. Both teams are horrible on the road (16-25 and 15-26, respectively). I'm giving the series to the home team, the Hawks. Prediction: Hawks 4-2


Western Conference

Lakers vs Jazz: The Jazz played the Lakers hard last year. Although people think the Lakers will waltz through the playoffs, don't expect it to be that easy. The Jazz are going to put up a fight. Deron Williams is the second best point guard in the league. He is a big time player that comes through in clutch situations. If the game is close, I wouldn't be surprised to see Williams drop 11 straight points. The Jazz are a physical team that doesn't have much of a low post presence outside of Boozer. They also play pretty good defense and have bodies to put against the big front line of the Lakers. To counter Deron Williams, the Lakers have #24. We are all aware of what Kobe can do. The Jazz will have to try and limit the rest of the Lakers and let AK47 to the best he can against Kobe. To make matters worse, Pau is the best 2nd option in the NBA. Like Boozer, he is a double-double machine. Boozer will have to play amazing defense against Gasol in order to have a chance in this series. As for Bynum, if he is half as productive has he has been, it is going to be a long night for the Jazz. No surprise here. Prediction: Lakers 4-1

Nuggets vs Hornets: The best point guard in Chris Paul and the third best point guard in Chauncey Billups go at it. The Nuggets have the big names, but their embarassing loss to the Blazers the other night could not have been encouraging for George Karl. Melo is still inconsistent and has a chance to make a name for himself. Billups is a proven leader with championship experience. Nene is a solid big man that can go up against a healthy Chandler and the Nuggets have, in my mind, the 6th man of the year in J.R Smith. Smith is explosive and dangerous. The more you see Smith play, the more you know he is for real. Smith was the only reason the Nuggets didn't get completely embarassed last year against the Lakers in the first round. If the Hornets have a healthy Chandler and Peja can come back to somewhat of what he has been in the past, the Hornets have a chance. In fact, I think a healthy Chandler means the Hornets win. David West and Melo will also be an interesting matchup. The Hornets are only 6 games worse in terms of records compared to the Nuggets. Their seeding is not indicative of their talent. Prediction: Hornets 4-3

Spurs vs Mavericks: Like the Celtics, the talk is about losing Manu. Pop is going to let that distract his team. The Spurs have a lot to lose by going out early in the playoffs. An early loss for the Spurs will have the basketball world talking Tim Duncan retirement. The Spurs have a lot to prove. The Mavs have always been the team that never could. The Spurs have the young gunners and the veteran leaders in Parker and Duncan. The Mavs have veteran gunners like Dirk, Josh Howard, and probably the 6th man of the year in Jason Terry. Most importantly, Jason Kidd is the veteran that needs to step up and lead this team. This is about as good as it gets for NBA fans. A team that has nothing to lose in the Mavs, and a team that has everything to lose in the Spurs. This is going to be a good one. In the end, I don't think the Mavs are durable or patient enough to hang with the steady Spurs. Prediction: Spurs 4-2

Blazers vs Rockets: This could be the year the Rockets finally make it out of the first round. The good news for the Rockets is that they match up to the Blazers well. The bad news is that they are the Rockets. Battier will play Brandon Roy and that is going to help them out a lot. If they can limit Brandon Roy, things might swing Houston's way. The Rockets have a couple of offensive options. Nothing too overwhelming. The Blazers have great offensive players like Aldridge and Outlaw. They also have a good group of young players in Bayless, Fernandez and Rodriguez. The Blazers are undoutedly more talented right now compared to the Rockets. There are rumblings that Yao's foot is hurt and won't be 100% for the playoffs. I think that is where it ends. Another injury-plagued season for the Rockets leads to another tough first round matchup, and leads to an early summer vacation. A lot of people think this series will be close. I would like to see this go to 7, but it will end in Game 6 at the Toyota Center. Prediction: Blazers 4-2

Izzy

The 3 Most Compelling Stories Going into the Playoffs

So I'm finally back. Some news before I jump into today's post. I've recently become the domain owner of dishingdimes.com. You can now access the site by simply typing dishingdimes.com into your browser. The webmaster is currently working on a few things, and should have everything up and running by the middle of April. With all of that, my boredom with this years' NCAA Tournament (Wake's ousting killed it for me) has brought me to focus my attention on the final stretch of the NBA season. There are 3 big story lines we need to watch before we hit the third week of April and the first round starts.

1) The 8th seed in both conferences- I'm not saying that there will be a repeat of the 2006 #8 Warriors over #1 Dallas, which I still stand by, is the biggest upset in sports history. I am saying that there are a few ways this could play out. Lets start in the East. I don't see Chicago falling out of the 8th spot right now. I think Charlotte can get there next year, but I don't think they are a consistent enough team to challenge Chicago for that spot. If Chicago hangs onto that last spot, I'm going to give the ROY to Derrick Rose. Lets take it a step further. Detroit has a chance to slip to 8th. Chicago is playing 7 games at home and 3 on the road to close the season. Out of their last 10 games, only Miami, Philly, and Detroit are playoff teams. The Bulls beat Miami without Derrick Rose and the road doesn't turn too sharply as they meet Philly, Detroit, and the rest, which are very winnable games. It is also worth noting that the game against Detroit is at Detroit, and could very well determine the 7th and 8th seeds in the East. If the Bulls can go out winning 8 of 10, they will be in great position. The Pistons lost to the Lakers in the game tonight, they have 11 more games, 1 of those games is against the Cavs, and the only other hurdles will be Philly and the big game against Chicago. Remember to watch the Pistons/Bulls game on April 13th because it will have major playoff implications. So lets think about what this actually means for Chicago and Detroit. An 8th seed means you are probably playing the Cavs, and a 7th seed means you are probably playing the Celtics. If I were the Bulls, I would much rather play against the Celtics than the Cavs. The Bulls have no one who can guard Lebron, but the Pistons can throw Tayshaun Prince on Lebron and contain him as much as any defense can. The Pistons probably don't want to play the Celtics in the first round due to their lack of size. They can't body up against KG, Glen Davis, KendrickPerkins, or Leon Powe very well. It will be a struggle for an undersized Detroit team. In short, it would be in the Pistons' best interest to drop to the 8th seed, but it might just be me. It is picking your poison.

In the West we have an interesting race between, really, #2-9. San Antonio could theoretically fall to the 8th spot at this point. Doubtful, but possible. At this point, anything can happen with those spots. The Suns are desperately trying to make the playoffs, and there is a chance they can pull it off. Dallas doesn't have a favorable schedule in the last 10 games of the season. Dallas plays Cleveland on Sunday, and has games against Miami, Phoenix, Utah, New Orleans twice, and Houston to close the season out. All of those games will have major playoff implications and all of those teams are going to be at full strength trying to finalize their playoff spots. Out of the last 10 games the Suns have, only 4 of them are playoff teams, one of those teams being Dallas. I see this playoff race going all the way until the last game. We may not know what happens, and both teams don't want to rely on the other team losing for playoff position. It will make for very interesting basketball. As for the middle of the field in the West, it is almost impossible to predict what will happen. Virtually every matchup in the West could swing either way from the 2 through 7 matchups. Lets even throw the Lakers in there in the 1 vs 8 matchup. The Lakers have a chance to lose if they don't come out at full strength. Seeding is of the utmost importance at this time of the year, and things are tight in the league right now. It will be interesting to see how the last two spots in the East play out and how the West plays out as a whole.

2) The Boston injuries- This could be the determining factor in the East. The Celtics will most likely get a 2 seed, and Doc Rivers assures us that they don't care what seed they get, "As long as we are healthy, we will lace up against anyone." That statement is true, but is contingent on the first clause. Can they get healthy? They are slowly bringing KG back, and they have a multitude of other injuries. KG has been unproductive as of late, but the Celtics have seemed to be playing relatively well without him at full strength. They lost a tough game to Orlando last night, but you can never underestimate what the Celtics can do with that much talent on one team. We saw the Celtics exploited by the very good Orlando team last night. Dwight Howard punishes them down low. There is virtually no one who can guard Dwight Howard. His style of play will revolutionize young centers with hopes of coming to the NBA. Howard's post presence and athleticism is too much for Boston to deal with if KG is not ready. It is also important to note that Ray Allen has had a few nagging injuries, but we can expect him to be fully healthy for the playoffs. The Celtics have been criticized for not playing with the same fire as they did last season, but a healthy Celtics team is just as dangerous as the championship team we saw last June. If KG is fully healthy, expect the Celtics to be in the Finals, but not without a 7 game series against Cleveland. The question will be whether KG's injuries follow him into the playoffs.

3) The Blazers- Does anyone remember them? They haven't made any headlines since the incident between Ariza and Fernandez. I truly believe that they can beat any team in the West. They have two interchangeable bigmen inside, a great young star, a scoring PF, and solid role players. They have upset written all over them. As of now, they would be playing the Rockets. From the history of the Rockets, an upset by the hands of the Blazers is not outrageous. Pay attention to how they play in this critical point in the season. It will be very telling to how they will perform in the playoffs. They are my sleeper pick for the playoffs.

Izzy